Welp, we took a step right direction…literally, just one step. Last week’s lineup was littered with solid but unspectacular performances. Melvin Gordon, Michael Thomas, and David Johnson were productive but didn’t prop the lineup as expected. Ricky Seals-Jones scored 1.5 points and cost David Johnson a long rushing TD with a holding penalty ☹. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a turnover-littered 11.08 points before he was benched. Dion Lewis and the Cardinals defense flopped (4.20 and 4 points, respectively). Anthony Miller scored a TD but he had 2 catches for 25 yards. Josh Reynolds came through with 20 points in that Rams-Chiefs shootout but it ultimately wasn’t enough to cash in. Week 11’s lineup finished with a disappointing 111.38 DraftKings points.
On to Week 12.
QB Andrew Luck vs Mia
Buoyed by standout offensive line improvements, Andrew Luck has thrown for at least 3 TD every game since Week 4. In that same time span, the only teams who haven’t thrown for at least 3 TD versus Miami are offensive juggernauts, the New York Jets, Detroit Lions, and Cincinnati Bengals. He’ll also enjoy that home cooking boost where he has 16-2 TD to interception ratio.
While Miami’s recent offensive struggles could be a concern to his ceiling, he’s thrown for 3 TD in each of the last two games on only 58 attempts. Luck is a top 3 play this week.
DraftKings salary: 6,400
RB James Conner @Den
James Conner faced a tough Jacksonville run defense last week but is in a prime bounce-back spot. Pittsburgh tends to lean a little more on Conner on the road. This season he averages 6.4 more touches per game on the road than he does at home. The matchup is also advantageous as the usually stout Denver run D has slipped to an exploitable 4.7 yards per carry given up. Look at Week 11 like the outlier it was and fire Conner up this week.
DraftKings salary: 7,800
RB Nick Chubb @Cin
Nick Chubb has had at least 20 touches in each of the last three games and gets a great matchup this week versus Cincy. We just saw this defense gashed for 267 rushing yards in Baltimore last week. A team that featured a mobile QB with a downhill back…the same dynamic the Browns offer.
The volume + the matchup + the price makes this one of the no-brainer picks of the week.
DraftKings salary: 6,300
WR T.Y. Hilton vs Mia
T.Y. Hilton went off for 155 yards and 2 TD last week so I’m going back to him this week in a stack with Luck. This a prime spot for couple shot plays versus a Dolphins team giving up 8.1 yards per pass attempt which is 5th worst in the NFL. Even if he gets shadow coverage from standout corner Xavien Howard, his game is the type that can give plus size boundary corners issues.
He’ll also always have a secure target share even if they don’t take many deep shots.
DraftKings salary: 6,500
WR Alshon Jeffery vs NYG
Alshon Jeffery had a down game last week but his Week 12 spot is a sweet one. In the Eagles’ Week 6 matchup with the Giants, Jeffery had eight catches for 89 yards and 2 TD facing up primarily against Janoris Jenkins. Last week was one of only two games this year where he didn’t get at least one red zone target.
This type of opportunity is a real value at his price. Look for Alshon to get back in the scoring column this week versus a familiar foe.
DraftKings salary: 5,800
WR Adam Humphries vs SF
While everyone is running to waiver wires to grab Cameron Brate, Adam Humphries is probably the biggest beneficiary of the O.J. Howard injury. He averages a shade under six targets per game and hasn’t seen his number of routes run dip below 25 since Week 3. Functioning as Jameis Winston’s underneath security blanket, I’d put his target floor at 7.0, with a chance for double digits in a potential shootout game.
That’s stealing at this price point.
DraftKings salary: 4,000
TE Greg Olsen vs Sea
Coming off a three-target game going up against a Seahawks team that has played the tight end well this season (6th least fantasy points per game allowed) doesn’t exactly build the greatest case but Greg Olsen brings a lot to the table in another game I think could turn into a shootout. Olsen played 100 percent of the snaps last week and ran 33 routes. He’s scored a TD in three of the last four games and the Panthers look like they’ll be without their #1 receiver, Devin Funchess.
Double-digit targets are not out of the question here even if the matchup is a little prohibitive.
DraftKings salary: 4,400
Flex Matt Breida @TB
Behind Kyle Shanahan’s wizardry, Matt Breida’s 5.6 yards per carry is 4th in the NFL among RB’s. He’s battled injuries all year but put together a 132-total yard-2 TD performance in Week 10 before a well-deserved bye. Now he gets a Tampa Bay defense that has given up more rushing TD than anybody in the NFL. He’ll also have ability to impact in the passing game as the Bucs give up the 10th most receiving yards per game to RBs.
Breida is one of the best values on the slate this week.
DraftKings salary: 5,700
Defense Houston vs Ten
No Blaine Gabbert dims this matchup just a touch but this is still a great spot for the Texans defense. Houston pressures the QB and plays stifling run defense (3.7 yards per carry). While the Titans offense has made some improvements, they still haven’t been able to establish anything in the passing game outside of Corey Davis. They give up the 4th most points per game to fantasy defenses this season. This might be the top defensive play of the week, top 3 easy.
DraftKings salary: 3,000