Last Week: 8-5
Overall: 77-84-8 – 47.8%
Week 12 Whiffs
— I assumed that A.J. Green would play for the Bengals last week against the Browns in a must-win game and I would have probably went the other way had they announced he was out by Wednesday. They didn’t announce anything, so I went with the Bengals and they wet the bed at home. You know what happens when you assume…
— Pittsburgh was 10-0-1 in their last 11 road games so I saw a money line of -170 on Sunday morning and jumped on it. I will never apologize for the Steelers losing, but I do feel a bit responsible.
Solid bounce back week after a rough Week 11. If the Ravens and Texans would have been on the board and if I had the injury report for the Bengals game, those would have been three more wins, but such is life.
I checked the lines on Thanksgiving morning and saw that public money was coming in on all of the underdogs so I went with an all contrarian parlay on Turkey Day of favorites Chicago, Dallas, and New Orleans who all ended up covering. However, I then trusted Pittsburgh on the money line which put a dent into those winnings.
Below are the Week 13 ATS Power Rankings:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Here are my Week 13 picks…
Thursday – 11/29/18
New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys (+8.0, o/u 53.5)
NFL Network gets the NFL’s hottest team this week as the Saints roll into Jerry World. Normally, in these spots, the home teams have a considerable advantage, but I don’t see that playing out this week, as the Saints have been absolutely impossible to stop to this point of the season. They will get ahead and force Dak to play from behind which is never a recipe for success. The Saints win easily on Thursday night.
The Saints are 5-0 straight up and ATS in 5 road games this season winning by an average of 14.1 points per game. Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and are 3-2 ATS at home this season.
My Pick: New Orleans -8.0
Sunday – 12/2/18
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (-5.0, o/u 40.0)
The Bills have rattled off two straight wins and although they are an extreme long shot for the playoffs, they’ll take some pride in knocking a division rival out as well this week. Although they sit at 4-7, their defense has been solid. They rank 1st against the pass, 16th against the rush, and 3rd in yards per play. I’ll take the points against a struggling Dolphins offense.
Miami is 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games following consecutive road games. Buffalo is 7-3 straight up and ATS in their last 10 games against Miami.
My Pick: Buffalo +5.0
Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants (off the board)
Games are normally off the board because of question marks at quarterback. This is no different. Mitch Trubisky is questionable again this week, but the Bears defense should be able to cover whatever the spread may be.
My Pick: off the board
Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers (-14.0, o/u 44.5)
Green Bay will win this game. The question becomes, by how much? Fourteen points seems like a lot to me here for a Packers team that hasn’t impressed at all this season, but maybe that’s what Vegas wants us to believe. While I think this game will be around a 10-point win for the Packers, I can’t, in good conscience, pick one of the worst teams in the NFL to cover those extra few points difference between the spread and what I think will happen. I’ll take the Pack to cover.
Green Bay is 11-0 straight up and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Arizona is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games and 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.
My Pick: Green Bay -14.0
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons (-1.0, o/u 48.0)
One of the tougher Week 13 matchups to pick due to the uncertainty and inconsistency of Lamar Jackson at quarterback in his first road game. I’m going to pick Baltimore here because I value their offense going up against a banged-up Atlanta defense more than I value the Falcons offense against the Ravens defense. That being said, I think you’ll know very early how this game will play out. If the Falcons can get an early lead, they’ll cruise to victory as I don’t believe Jackson can lead a comeback. If the Ravens can control the ball on the ground and limit the number of times Matt Ryan is on the field, they’ll pull out the victory. There are WAY too many “ifs” in this game for me to consider playing this game, but one thing I’m semi-confident on is this game going under the total.
The Ravens are 1-7 straight up in their last eight games following consecutive wins. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and at home.
My Pick: Baltimore +1.0
New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans (-8.0, o/u 40.5)
Tennessee desperately needs a win here to stay in the AFC playoff race. They’ll get it against a Jets team that hasn’t topped 300 yards in their past five games while scoring less than 20 points and committing 11 turnovers in that same stretch. There’s nothing that will make me believe the Jets can cover here so we’re going with the Titans -8.
Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites. The Jets are 0-5 straight up and ATS in their last five games, losing by an average of 17.2 points.
My Pick: Tennessee -8.0
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+5.0, o/u 44.0)
This game opened with the Broncos as four-point favorites after it was announced that Andy Dalton will miss this week’s matchup. It jumped to five points within a day.
Cincinnati should get Green back this week, but he’ll have Jeff Driskel throwing him the ball. So we’ll have NO idea what to expect now out of this offense. Pair that with a defense that ranks last or next to last in every meaningful category and you have the makings of a long day in Cincy.
Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last six games, but just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 on the road. Cincy is 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 1-4 ATS in their last five at home.
My Pick: Denver -5.0
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.0, o/u 47.5)
The Colts have been on fire and the Jags have, well, not. This game is simply a gut feeling on my part. I’m going to bank on the Jaguars taking some pride in stopping the Andrew Luck led Colts’ winning streak and showing the NFL that their defense is still a force.
Blake Bortles has also finally been benched in favor of Cody Kessler and Leonard Fournette has been suspended for this week’s game, but he may appeal. Nothing about that should give you much faith in the Jags, but again, I just feel like this is a spot where they can cover against a Colts team that I just don’t have a ton of faith in – even though they’ve been hot.
The Jaguars are 0-7 straight up, but 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. The Colts are 5-0 straight up in their last five games, winning by an average of 16 points.
My Pick: Jacksonville +5.0
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions (+10.0, o/u 55.0)
Away favorites of seven or more points are 7-1 ATS this season and when one of those teams is one of the top three teams in the league coming off a bye, I can’t bet against them. The Rams will put up points, that’s a given. The game will come down to whether or not Matthew Stafford can keep up. I don’t think he’ll be able to, as the Detroit offense ranks 19th in passing yards and 24th in rushing yards.
The Rams are 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight games and 2-4 ATS in their last six on the road. Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last five.
My Pick: Los Angeles -10.0
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans (-6.0, o/u 48.0)
This game will hinge on the Browns stopping DeAndre Hopkins with a defense that ranks toward the bottom of the league. If they can slow him down, they will be able to keep this game close and if they can pull out a win, they will quietly stay in the AFC playoff race as a longshot. I’ll be staying away from this game, but the 48-point total does look enticing as an over play.
Cleveland is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games and 4-2 ATS in their last six on the road. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in December.
My Pick: Cleveland +6.0
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.0, o/u 56.0)
Carolina is trying to avoid losing their 4th straight loss this week against Tampa Bay. They are now in must-win mode to stay relevant in the NFC playoff picture. The Panthers defense will be just good enough to force Jameis Winston into a few turnovers and Cam Newton will put up 30+ points and easily cover in Tampa.
The Panthers are 1-4 straight up and ATS in their five road games this season. Tampa is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against Carolina.
My Pick: Carolina -4.0
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders (+15.5, o/u 56.0)
If you’ve read this piece this season, you know that I love good teams coming off losses. Not only are the Chiefs coming off a loss, but they’re also coming off a bye for the double whammy. The Raiders won’t be able to stop Pat Mahomes & co. this week as they’ll be able to move the ball at will against a Raiders defense that ranks last against the run and 30th in points allowed. This will be an ugly game and the Chiefs will cover.
Kansas City is 11-4 straight up and ATS in their last 15 games at Oakland and 4-1-1 ATS on the road this season. Oakland is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and 0-4-1 ATS at home this season.
My Pick: Kansas City -15.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-10.0, o/u 46.0)
Seattle leads the league in rushing yards and boasts a +8 turnover differential. On the other side of the ball, San Francisco ranks second to last in the league with a -17 turnover differential. Those don’t bode well and should lead to a Seahawks cover and a game that will most likely go under the total.
San Francisco is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against Seattle and 1-9 ATS in Seattle.
My Pick: Seattle -10.0
Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots (-6.0, o/u 48.5)
Minnesota’s defense is trending toward their performance last season and could give her majesty trouble in Week 13. I’m going to commit a cardinal sin and bank on that and the weapons of Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, and Adam Thielen to put up points and steal a win straight up in New England this week.
New England is 12-0 straight up and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at home winning by an average of 14.75 points. Minnesota is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 December games.
My Pick: Minnesota +6.0
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, o/u 51.5)
This is a big game for both teams. The Steelers look to keep their 1.5-game lead over the Ravens and the Chargers look to keep pace with the Chiefs. Ultimately, I think the loss of Melvin Gordon hurts the Chargers too much in this spot. The Steelers will be able to key on the passing game and get to Rivers throughout the game. As a Ravens fan, either outcome in this one can benefit them.
Pittsburgh is 14-1 straight up in their last 15 night games. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road.
My Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5
Monday – 12/3/18
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, o/u 44.0)
Both teams are still alive in the NFC East race and winning the division is probably the only way to the playoffs for these two hopefuls so a lot is on the line in this game.
Philadelphia has proven the Super Bowl hangover is real as they improved their team this offseason, but now sit at 5-6. However, in a game with a lot on the line, I’m putting my money on Carson Wentz to be able to beat a Washington team led by Colt McCoy. I’m not confident in this one, but I’m picking Philly here.
Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against Philadelphia. Philly is 1-4 ATS in their last five games and 0-5 ATS in their last five at home.
My Pick: Philadelphia -6.5
There are several spots I’m confident in this week. A 7-team parlay would be nice (but more than likely not going to happen):
New Orleans -8.0
Kansas City -15.5
San Francisco/Seattle UNDER
Good luck to everyone this week! Check out GridIron Gold for your online betting needs.