So…Week 14 didn’t go as planned. Julio Jones came through big with 33.60 points. Nick Chubb and DeAndre Hopkins scored TD’s that propped up meh games. They finished with 18.30 and 13.60 points respectively.
Everyone else? It wasn’t pretty. Despite Julio’s strong game, the Falcons couldn’t do enough to keep Aaron Rodgers’ attempts up, as he finished with a pedestrian 20.24 points. The Patriots defense kept getting gashed thus leading to a TD-less 57 rushing yards for Sony Michel. Chris Godwin had alllll the air yards (173) but none of the actual yards (13). David Njoku continued to disappoint in the box score with three catches for 35 yards. Jeffrey Wilson paid off his salary with a solid 90 yards on the ground but didn’t score a TD and had really no receiving work. The Steelers had an unimpactful six points on D.
Ah well, on to Week 15.
QB Tom Brady @ Pit
The Pats are predictable in a sense as far as how they attack offensively. They usually stray away from teams’ perceived strengths. The Steelers have a top 10 run defense so I fully expect this to be a Tom Brady game. He’s historically owned Pittsburgh, sporting a 25 to 4 TD to interception ratio in his career. While the Steelers seemed to have righted the ship as a pass defense halfway thru the season, they’ve been rocked a bit the last two games, giving up 621 yards. On a slate that doesn’t have that many appealing QB options, you don’t have to twist my arm here at 5,900.
DraftKings salary: 5,900
RB Leonard Fournette vs. Was
The Jags might not attempt a single pass in this one. This Washington pass game traveling to an angry, underachieving but still very talent defense seems like the beginning of a horror film. Their run defense has been susceptible all year and Saquon Barkley just hammered them for 170 yards on the ground last week. Leonard Fournette obviously has had a year to forget but this is the type of game that could make his preseason believers smile.
DraftKings salary: 7,500
RB Dalvin Cook vs. Mia
Mike Zimmer went from saying he’d like to see a few more runs a couple weeks ago to giving John Defillippo his walking papers. If we don’t know anything else, we know the Vikings will run the ball this week, and Dalvin Cook will benefit. The Dolphins are a bottom-10 run defense, scoring offense and bottom three in time of possession. I’m applying the same reasoning from last week’s Sony Michel play. Process > Results.
DraftKings salary: 6,500
WR Julian Edelman @ Pit
Going to an old faithful stack here with Brady-Edelman. Julian Edelman is coming off a 12-target game and has five red zone targets in the last two games. He now gets a Steelers secondary in a bit of disarray. It looks like talented nickel corner Mike Hilton is being benched for draft disappointment Cameron Sutton. Fire Edelman up with confidence.
DraftKings salary: 7,200
WR Randall Cobb @ Chi
Receiver is really tough this week so you have to dig deep if you’re not constructing a lineup where you’re paying up at the position. Randall Cobb’s targets have been steady and he’ll get two boosts in this one. The Bears have a suffocating run defense which should be a boon to his opportunities, and Chicago will be missing their slot corner Bryce Callahan. I’m not expecting fireworks here but I think he’ll more than pay off his price.
DraftKings salary: 4,400
WR Corey Davis @ NYG
Did I mention receiver kinda sucks this week? I’m really just betting on talent in this price range. Corey Davis has been up and down all year but his peak is always intriguing in this range. His Week 14 matchup, Janoris Jenkins, has become someone to attack in the secondary. I have to hit on him once this year right?
DraftKings salary: 5,600
TE Vance McDonald vs. NE
If Steelers-Pats turns into a shootout I needed another cheap piece of this game. The Patriots give up the 11th most points per game to tight end this season. I fully expect them to devote most of their energy into slowing Juju and AB and that should create some one on one opportunities down the seam for Vance McDonald.
DraftKings salary: 3,900
Flex Joe Mixon vs. Oak
Another home favorite(ish) RB to round out my trio this week. Joe Mixon is coming off a 30-touch game for an injury-ravaged Cincy offense but gets the gift of facing the Raiders, who give up the 6th most points per game to the position. Volume + Bad Defense is usually enough for me but Mixon’s sheer talent and pass game involvement makes this one too good to pass up.
DraftKings salary: 6,100
Defense Bills vs. Det
The Lions haven’t scored more than 20 points in over a month. Their lone big play threat Kenny Golladay gets to face stud corner Tredavious White. They’ll also be missing Kerryon Johnson and Bruce Ellington. I have absolutely no clue how they’ll move the ball. This may be the top defensive play of the week.
DraftKings salary: 2,800