Last week’s lineup started with an early morning audible…
With the news Davante Adams news you can swap him out for Tyreek Hill. Can also swap out Big Ben for Mahomes to get the stack. https://t.co/LyfhqMSz3f
— Carey Stevenson (@Carey1313) December 30, 2018
QB Andrew Luck @ Hou
This Colts-Texans matchup is the premier game of the weekend from a fantasy perspective. Two talented QB’s and two stout run defenses that will likely force the ball more to the air. While the Texans finished the regular season 12th in fantasy points per game allowed to QB’s, they certainly didn’t end the season on a high note. Over the last 4 weeks, they gave up an average of 26.25 points per game to QB’s. For sake of comparison, the Bengals finished the season with the worst mark at 24.50 points per game. If that isn’t enough for you, Luck threw for 863 yards in 2 games versus the Texans this season.
DraftKings salary: 6,400
RB Zeke Elliott vs. Sea
This is a pretty straightforward play. He’s got a great matchup at home versus a Seahawks team giving up 4.9 yards per carry. On the off chance that Seattle’s run d stiffens or game script gets away from Dallas, don’t trip. Zeke hasn’t had a game with fewer than 5 targets since Week 6 and the Seahawks give up the 7th most targets per game to opposing running backs. Even the biggest of contrarians will have Zeke in their lineups this weekend.
DraftKings salary: 9,000
RB Jordan Howard vs. Phi
I’ve been a serial Jordan Howard-Bears D stacker this season. Unfortunately, I haven’t had much success hitting on Howard’s good weeks. But I’m not going to let that hold me back. Howard’s 17.6 carries per game over the last 5 games isn’t that far off his 14.7 per game pace for the season. The difference is he’s scored 4 TD’s in the last 3 games. We’re essentially playing the same game with Howard that we’ve played all season, try to find games we think Chicago will control, hope his carries end up on the high end and pray he scores a TD. I’m not incredibly worried about the matchup in this situation but the Eagles’ 4.7 yards per carry allowed surely doesn’t hurt.
DraftKings salary: 4,600
WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Ind
Hopkins put the finishing touches on a crazy regular season with 12 catches for 147 yards. With Deshaun Watson efficiency rising and the health of his receivers falling he’s leaned on Hopkins even more than usual. He’s had double-digit targets in each of the last 5 games and finds himself in this potential shootout. The Colts will be in their Tampa 2 with a focus on preventing the big play but that won’t stop Hopkins and his Cris Carter-esque game. He’ll get his even if it is just 12 yards at a time.
DraftKings salary: 8,700
WR T.Y. Hilton @ Hou
I’m old enough to remember the last time Hilton practiced, and honestly, you’d never know the difference because when game day arrives, he plays and plays well. He’s tortured the Texans over the years, to the tune of 103 yards receiving per game, including 199 when the two teams faced in Week 14. Even with Jonathan Joseph’s potential return, the Texans simply don’t have anybody that can match up with him. Frank Reich made comments this week that may lead others to be concerned from a health standpoint but unless he says he’s missing a leg or something I’m firing him up.
DraftKings salary: 7,800
WR Dontrelle Inman @ Hou
Continuing my exposure to Colts-Texans here with Inman. He’s taken the reins as the #2 receiver in Indy as of late. Inman missed their Week 14 meeting but Zach Pascal occupied the outside receiver role and finished with 5 catches for 68 yards and a TD on 6 targets. I’d say that’s a fair target projection for Inman and his 5-inch height advantage over the smallish Kareem Jackson feels like something the Colts could look to exploit as Inman has 3 red zone targets over the last 2 games.
DraftKings salary: 4,300
TE Dallas Goedert @ Chi
When I heard everyone talking about how Vic Fangio is likely to try to scheme Zach Ertz out of this game I thought maybe he knows I don’t wanna spend up at tight end this week. How thoughtful of him! Seriously though, even if this isn’t the case, the Eagles realize their best personnel grouping is their 2 tight end set. Goedert plays more than half the snaps, runs double-digit routes and should see at least 3 to 5 targets. On this brutal tight end slate, you could do a whole lot worse.
DraftKings salary: 2,600
Flex Nyheim Hines @ Hou
Hines might be my favorite play this week. If this game goes the way I suspect it to, he stands a chance at double-digit touches. He’s had at least 5 targets in each of the last 4 games and the Texans give up the 9th most targets per game to the position. If Houston keeps Mack grounded in the run game early the Colts could decide to go away from it completely giving Hines 6 to 8 catch upside which at his price is as good as you could ask for.
DraftKings salary: 3,500
Defense Ravens vs. LAC
For 7 weeks now, the Ravens have taken the air out of other teams’ offenses with a ball control offense and great defense. Just a couple weeks ago that put the clamps on this same team in their building (I use that term loosely of course). The Chargers are saying all the right things but Philip Rivers’ performance the last 3 weeks is cause for concern. He’s thrown picks on the first drive of each game and we all know he’s not going to escape a pass rush at this stage of his career. Even if he plays well, can their offense possess the ball long enough to do real damage?
DraftKings salary: 3,000