As far as Super Bowl LIII is concerned, it is what it is. It’s funny because many of the predictive power rankings still have New Orleans listed as the best team in the league, even after their defeat.
So, that has to add even more head shaking to the already infamous ‘no-call’ in the NFC Championship game. I’ve seen folks on multiple occasions —probably Rams fans — butt their way into internet threads about whether or not that ref should be fired, and defensively say, ‘quite your whining; the best team won.’ Well, obviously not, because even the nonpartial algorithms disagree with you. That said, it should still be a fun Super Bowl to watch, even if we don’t get to see Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees.
As funny as it sounds, over 1000 simulations were run by a particular site, and they came up with the Rams somehow winning by 0.6 points. OK … they should really round up or down to whole numbers because no team has won by 0.6 points, ever. On top of this, both teams average 25 points and change in their simulations, which would put the total score at just under 51 combined points.
Another AI picked the total score to hit 53. This model is currently 52.2% which is not a profitable number. The other super intelligent machine has a closing line record of 46-52-2. So, we can’t trust that one either. In fact, sometimes I feel like, betting against whatever that particular computer picks is the way to go.
If we went purely off of defensive stats, then blindly backing the under would be wise. But the Patriots have averaged 28.6 points per game this season, and the Rams 32.4. Furthermore, the Pats have scored 78 points thus far in the playoffs. They put up 37 against the Chiefs and 41 against the Chargers and did so in freezing conditions both times. If we go back over the last four games, New England has averaged 35 points per game. The Rams have put up 56 points in the playoffs and have averaged 33.75 over their last four.
The Rams have the No. 19 defense in the league when it comes to points allowed, so I don’t see them putting up a brick-wall defensive performance against the Pats in the Super Bowl. The Patriots put up 34 their win over the Falcons two years ago and 33 in their loss to the Eagles last season. The Falcons scored 28 on a solid Pats defense and Nick Foles dropped 41 on them last time around. So, why would the No. 19 scoring defense in the league suddenly shut New England down? Especially since this Patriots team is second in the NFL at keeping their offense on the field. Late in the game, even if the Pats are down, they will likely score.
I hate to side with the general public on this one, but the numbers point to OVER 56 points. If the Patriots stay true to their recent trend, they will also match their most recent Super Bowl numbers. At 34 points the Rams just have to put up 22 to get the push. That said, this is most likely a 35-28 game.
So, go ahead and pull the trigger on the OVER. Don’t listen to the artificial unintelligence.