I swear draft season in the NFL lasts longer than the actual regular season…
And I’m absolutely here for it!
While the Flock fanatics continue to look for specific players at pick 22 (plenty of which are begging for D.K. Metcalf because of a single Instagram picture – sheesh), I’ve found myself planted firmly on #TeamTradeback
I think the bulk of players in the 20 through 40 range in this draft carry a nominal delta (you can take Nasir Adderley at 22… or Deionte Thompson at 40), and should a specific player of need for another team fall to 22, where the Ravens have a full depth chart and zero need? You pull the trigger on a trade and accumulate additional picks.
Think Noah Fant or T.J. Hockenson sitting at 22, where teams like Oakland at 27 or possibly New England at 32 need a TE.
So what type of return should the Ravens expect in the event of a trade down from 22?
Obviously it’ll depend on how far down the board they’re willing to move, but the best way to guesstimate? Look back to previous drafts for a frame of reference (I used picks 21 through 24). Ideally, this will give us a roundabout idea of what we could expect to gain by moving back (or up!) in Day One of the NFL draft.
2010: Philadelphia Eagles send picks 24, 70 (3rd round), and 87 (3rd round) to the Denver Broncos for pick 13.
Let’s start with a trade up!
Obviously this is the least likely scenario, but still worth looking at. Should the Ravens see a player they truly covet, they’ll have the draft capital to move up to the early teens in a similar capacity, as they own the 22nd, 72nd (via Denver) and 86th pick in the draft. Even after the trade, they’ll still have what’s expected to be a 3rd-round compensatory pick for Ryan Jensen left behind. This move would depend on whether the Ravens covet quantity (22nd overall and a trio of 3rd rounders) vs quality (higher-graded player in the first at the expense of a pair of 3’s).
2010: Denver Broncos trade the 22nd pick to the New England Patriots for picks 24 & 113 (4th round).
Moving down two picks here netted the Broncos an additional 4th round pick. For a Ravens team that’s been known to find some gems in the 4th round of the NFL Draft, this is always a good proposition, especially if they have three or four guys in mind that are still sitting there from their big board prior to pick 22.
2012: Cincinnati Bengals send the 21st pick to the New England Patriots for picks number 27 & 93 (3rd round).
A little further of a drop (six spots) than the previous transaction listed (two spots) moves the additional pick up 20 spots, from the 4th round to a 3rd. With the Ravens already holding three picks in the 3rd round (again, I’m assuming the Jensen comp pick is a 3rd based on the formula), that would give Baltimore four picks in the 3rd round.
Mind you, in the 3rd round of last year’s draft, Baltimore netted their starting right tackle in Orlando Brown Jr, and their starting tight end in Mark Andrews.
Imagine what they could do with four picks in the 3rd…
2014: Philadelphia Eagles trade the 22nd overall pick to Cleveland Browns for 24th overall & 83rd overall (3rd round)
Just when we though the trend was noticeable (drop a few picks and net a 4th, drop a few more and it’s a 3rd), this trade between the Eagles and Browns throws a wrench in the works, as it netted Philly a mid-3rd rounder, which breaks the trend.
The caveat here? The pick made by the Browns was a QB, so the value to Cleveland was higher than the aforementioned Pats/Broncos trade.
With that in mind, should a Daniel Jones or Drew Lock be sitting here at 22 when the Ravens are on the clock? Baltimore would have to find themselves a team with a later 1st round pick in need of a QB which… well, you won’t find one. It would require a team earlier in round one moving down below Baltimore wanting to move back up, much like the Ravens in 2008 when they dropped from pick 8 to 26 in a trade with the Jags, then back up to 18 in a trade with Houston to nab QB Joe Flacco.
OR… they’d possibly look at a team early in the 2nd round in need of a QB, which is willing to give up a little more of a kings ransom to make that trade (we’ll touch on that later).
2015: Detroit Lions ship the 23rd pick to the Denver Broncos for the 28th pick, 143rd pick (5th round), 2016 5th round pick, & OG Manny Ramirez.
I know this one is such a rarity but it’s worth discussing – the Lions took a future pick and a lower pick while sliding down five picks, with the icing on the cake?
Adding a starting guard.
Why is that pertinent? Simply because the Ravens could use a guard. Imagine a scenario where you get a starting guard, still keep a first-rounder, and add a day 3 pick in back to back years… I’d be on board!
2016: Washington Skins trade the 21st pick to the Houston Texans for 22nd pick & 209th pick (6th round)
Move one spot? Pick up a 6th.
Maybe not necessarily worth it but hell, if the Texans with the 23rd pick in the 2019 draft covet, say, Noah Fant and the Ravens have zero need for a tight end but dangle that carrot of “other trade partners” in front of the Texans? Be worth picking up another pick along the way, while still landing the guy you wanted all along.
2018: Baltimore Ravens send the 22nd pick and 215th overall (6th round) to the Buffalo Bills for 25th pick & 125th pick(4th round).
We surely remember this one (many of you, I’m sure, rolling your eyes over taking Hayden Hurst here – but I still have faith in Ginger Thor!).
This is a simple example of the disparity in a few picks:
2016 showed us moving one spot nets a 6th, while this trade in ’18 shows us moving three spots and coupling with a 6th nets a 4th (essentially they moved up 90 spots on the board). If the Ravens end up in this position again with multiple names high on the board, if be worth adding a pick.
Dallas Cowboys trade 22nd pick to the Cleveland Browns for 36th overall (2nd) and a 2008 1st round pick
This is the most recent trade where a team at 22 moved down into the second round, and in doing so, added a future first. I gotta be honest here… if I’m Eric De Costa, this would be a home run move.
The scrutiny of his first ever pick (well, on the record first as GM) gets bumped to round 2, thus relieving some pressure, and he’d only have to move down (in this instance) 14 spots.
In doing so, EDC’s setting the 2020 draft up nicely, with a pair of first rounders and that’s friggin’ awesome. Even if the team you trade with ends up in the 20’s range in 2020, the potential to pair both mid-to-late 1st rounders and trade up into the top-10 remains a great possibility if the Ravens felt they wanted a Jerry Jeudy (or Jake Fromm for the LJ doubters). In the short term it’ll sour with fans at some capacity, but it’s a home run in my book for the franchise in terms of longevity and health.
Where do you stand on the 22nd overall pick in the draft? Are you adamant to stand pat at 22? Would you be willing to trade a few spots? Towards the end of Round One? Into early Round 2, if it meant recouping an extra 1st rounder in 2020?