NFL Draft Trends: THE MOCK

NFL Draft NFL Draft Trends: THE MOCK

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Part I: Draft Trends

Part II: Draft Trade Trends

As Draft Week is finally upon us, it’s time to put together what we know in regard to team trends and trade trends to create what should be a realistic version of a mock draft for Round 1 of the 2019 NFL Draft (much more realistic than a simple pick-for-player mock assuming 32 picks go face value based on BPA). 

Gross.

No need for more intro, let’s get into it!

Pick 1

Oakland Raiders (via AZ) – Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

OAK sends R1P4, R1P24, R4P106, 2020 R2 to Arizona for R1P1 (based on 2016 Rams trade for Jared Goff/2017 Bears trade for Mitch Trubisky)

I refuse to buy the smoke. The Cards aren’t eating $10M to trade Josh Rosen for a Day 2 pick when they could trade the top pick to the Raiders and get a pair of Day 1 picks and then some. For the Raiders, Derek Carr is just a future journeyman QB disguised as a starter. This is an upgrade for Oakland, who still has another first even after the trade.

Pick 2

San Francisco 49ers – Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State

A beautiful intersection of need, BPA, and luck lands Nick Bosa in San Fran. 

Pick 3

Washington Redskins (via NYJ) – Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

WAS sends R1P15, R2P46, 2020 R1 to NYJ for R1P3 (based on 2013 Dolphins trade-up for Dion Jordan)

Danny Boy and Bruce Allen have made just one trade up the boards in the past decade, nabbing Bob Griffin in 2012. In that trade they jumped from six to two to land their QB, but here, they’ll need a huge jump from 15 to three, giving up a few big picks, but locking in their QB position for the long-term.

Pick 4

Arizona Cardinals (via OAK) – Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

I’m convinced this is the player the Cards need more than Bosa or Allen. Williams is the top prospect in this draft and fills a true need for the Cards on the D-Line. 

Pick 5

Tampa Bay Bucs – Ed Oliver, EDGE, Houston

I wanted to say Devin White here, but Oliver is just too good to slip any further than this. 

Pick 6

New York Giants – Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky

The Giants could have moved up for Kyler or Haskins, but GM Dave Gettleman is notorious for simply taking BPA, with his biggest trade being in 2009 when he sent a future first to the 49ers for R1P41 (Everrett Brown). As such, the G-Men stand pat and take an inexplicably falling Josh Allen at six.

Pick 7

Jacksonville Jaguars – Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

Everybody wants to put T.J. Hockenson here, but the weapons are no good without an O-Line to protect Nick Foles from the same fate as Blake Bortles, right? Fix that, and worry about a TE like Irv Smith or Dawson Knox in Day Two.

Pick 8

Denver Broncos (via DET)- Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

Denver sends R1P10, R3P71, 2020 R2 to Detroit for R1P8

I hate this pick. I also hate John Elway. I also think he’s dumb enough to trade up for Drew Lock here, simply out of fear that the Bengals will slide up before Lock would fall to them at 10. Poor Joe Flacco is starting to feel like it’s Groundhog Day all over again…

Pick 9

Buffalo Bills – Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

Widely viewed as the best OL prospect in this class, this is a no-brainer to help Josh Allen and the Bills offense. And quite frankly it’s too high for DK Metcalf here…

Pick 10

Detroit Lions (via DEN) – T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Boy, this feels like a slam dunk if you take every mock you’ve seen in the past month at face value… which all but assures this is wrong. But sure, let’s throw Hock into Detroit and give Matt Stafford another toy, per usual in Detroit. Also worth noting, Detroit without a second-rounder, makes this move to accumulate picks – eight trades in 10 years on Day 1 means it’s likely they’ll be active once again.

Pick 11

Cincinnati Bengals- Devin White, ILB, Michigan

It was either this Devin, or the other. Unfortunately for Ravens fans, they got the better of the two.

Pick 12

Green Bay Packers – Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan

Back-to-back Devins! In an offseason of defensive players being added in GB, here’s another dangerous weapon on D.

Pick 13

Houston Texans (via MIA) – Cody Ford, OT, Oklahoma

Houston sends R1P23, R2P54, 2020 R2 to Miami for R1P13 (based on Texans 2017 trade-up to 12 for QB Deshaun Watson/2010 Eagles trade-up to 13 for Brandon Graham)

This trade just makes too much sense: the Fins want to add picks and move down, the Texans have shown they’ll move up boards on Day 1 (did so in 2016 & 2017), and they have back-to-back picks in Round 2 (54,55) giving them some play. 

Pick 14

Atlanta Falcons – Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

The Falcons secondary is trash. Greedy is the top corner on the board. Just makes too much sense not to pull that trigger. You could argue they’d nab the next player off the board, but it’s the Falcons – they’re not that smart.

Pick 15

New York Jets (via WAS) – Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State

The Jets basically valued Burns, a mid-2nd round pick, and a 2020 1st over Josh Allen at three. That’s a win in my book.

Pick 16

Carolina Panthers – Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan

A little slip down the board for Gary with recent revelations about a shoulder injury that could require surgery next offseason, but the Panthers jump on the heavily-debated (traits vs production) talent that is Gary.

Pick 17

New York Giants – Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

Again: Dave Gettleman and the Giants never move up or down boards. Which is fine because Jones is their target all along here, and no other team is going to be foolish enough to reach for a Day 2 QB prior to this point. Josh Allen & Daniel Jones isn’t a bad Day 1 haul for the G-Men.

Pick 18

Minnesota Vikings – Garrett Bradbury, C, NC State

This is another one of those ‘no way it doesn’t happen’ kinda picks. The Vikes direly need help at Center and Bradbury is the top option in this draft. 

Pick 19

Tennessee Titans – Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

The Titans need to have a contingency plan for old and oft-injured Delanie ‘needs a’ Walker. Fant falls right into their laps at 19. Match made in heaven.

Pick 20

Pittsburgh Steelers – Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

Another year, another DB for the Yinz, who have spent their top pick in the secondary in two of the last three years. Say, how’s Artie Burns doing these days?

Pick 21

Seattle Seahawks – Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

Sweat’s heart condition didn’t stop him from getting it in during the NFL Combine, but the red flag was enough to give some EDGE-needy teams the necessary pause to allow him to fall to Seattle at 21.

Pick 22

Philadelphia Eagles (via BAL) – Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

Philadelphia sends R1P25, R4P127 to Baltimore for R1P22

The Eagles couldn’t risk the Raiders at 24 jumping all over the consensus RB1 in this draft, so they slide up three spots to lock in Jacobs here at 22. Given the trade history between Baltimore & Philly (the 2018 Lamar Jackson trade, most recently) the pairing makes a ton of sense. Not the compensation Ravens fans want – I get it – but it’s another piece to move around the chess board. And yes, I know Philly traded for Jordan Howard, but he’s a one-year rental. Philly also had Zach Ertz but drafted Dallas Goedert last year, right? 

Pick 23

Miami Dolphins (via HOU) – Jeffrey Simmons, DT, Mississippi State

Miami is taking a true rebuild approach and will gladly wait on Simmons’ ACL to heal in 2019, after which he’ll be back in 2020 to prove himself a top-5 player in this class. Plus, playing without a first-round stud just contributes further to the #TankForTua campaign.

Pick 24

Oakland Raiders – Clellin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson

The Raiders moved their other pair of first-rounders as part of a trade to draft Murray, but an equally pressing need remains EDGE. Ferrell isn’t quite on Khalil Mack‘s level, but he’ll do just fine in Oakland. 

Pick 25

New England (via BAL/PHI) – DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

New England sends R1P32, R3P97 to Baltimore for R1P32 (based on 2017  Falcons trade-up for Takkarist MicKinley)

You’re already pissed off that the Ravens moved down to watch Ferrell go off the board, and now we swap with New England so that they can take DK as WR1 in this draft? YUP. I don’t think the Ravens covet DK as much as others, like New England that could use a big, strong weapon for Tom Brady opposite of.. *checks depth chart*… pick your poison – either 32-year-old recently suspended Julian Edelman, 31-year-old Demaryius Thomas coming off an ACL tear, or Phillip ‘forgot he was in the NFL’ Dorsett.

Pick 26

Indianapolis Colts – Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson

This is merely a position of need for the Colts and a great fit. That already dangerous defense gets scarier by the moment…

Pick 27

Arizona Cardinals (via OAK) – WR N’Keal Harry, Arizona State

The Cards would be remiss if they didn’t use one of their two Day 1 picks on a receiver, and Rosen gets a gem in N’Keal Harry, as the former Sun Devil stays in his own backyard.

Pick 28

Los Angeles Chargers – Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

The Chargers need to keep Philip Rivers upright for another playoff run that falls just short. Dillard fits the bill.

Pick 29

Seattle Seahawks (via KC/Frank Clark trade) – Taylor Rapp, S, Washington

Late addition to the game, but the Seahawks are set to ship Frank Clark to Kansas City for their 1st, 3rd and 2020 picks. Seattle already grabbed Sweat, and now they’ll add even more BOOM on that defense with Rapp at 29. If only they had a nickname that fit a ‘Boom’ mentality…

Pick 30

Green Bay Packers – Chris Lidstrom, OG, Boston College

Finally, the Packers do something for the offense! The Pack have only made two offensive picks in round 1 over the past decade – both interior offensive linemen. Here’s another that fills a big need for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Pick 31

Los Angeles Rams – Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State

Lose Rodger Saffold. Add Dalton Risner. Seamless enough for me.

Pick 32

Baltimore Ravens (via NE)- Chase Winovich, EDGE, Michigan

This is 100% biased, but it makes so much sense to me when you talk about needs vs. BPA vs. trade value. I think Wino is going to be a high target on the Ravens’ big board, and he’s undoubtedly a solid Day 1 EDGE prospect that will flourish in Wink Martindale’s system. The Ravens may have had calls to drop to Round 2, but instead dip their toe a few picks down to make sure he isn’t going anywhere, then drop to 32 and still land a stud. In doing so, they’ve added a third and fourth, which could be paired to move into the bottom of Round 2, perhaps with Philly once again as they hold picks 53 & 57, but no other pick until 127. 

 

That’s it! I’m done! Hopefully I killed this mock!

For the record: a ‘killed’ mock for me would be hitting two trades and 10-15 picks, so hopefully we’re back here next week and I’m bragging my ass off, no longer wearing the Nostradumbass “Cone of Shame!”

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Adam Bonaccorsi

About Adam Bonaccorsi

Living on the farce-side of Baltimore sports, Adam spends his time focusing on the satirical nature of our local teams- conveniently, sometimes the narrative writes itself! He's not one to shy away from controversial opinions, speaking his mind, or dropping a truth bomb into the Purple Kool Aid. More from Adam Bonaccorsi

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