During the Liar’s Luncheon, GM Eric DeCosta said a couple of things that really resonate with me. He made a point to reference picks in Rounds 3 and 4 as gold. He also reminded everyone that the Ravens are good at “manufacturing picks.” Consequently, I expect the Ravens to move back in the draft at least once to add more arrows to their draft quiver. If Alabama RB Josh Jacobs falls to the Ravens at 22, look for the Raiders at 24 and the Eagles at 25 to come calling.
Houston has the 23rd overall pick as of this writing, and they could be attracted to Jacobs. That threat will persuade the Raiders and Eagles to jump in front of the Texans and DeCosta will encourage the two bidders to up the ante with more draft capital. Traditionally, by virtue of the trade value chart the Ravens could pick up 40 points of trade value by swapping with Gruden/Mayock or 60 points in an exchange of picks with old friend Joe Douglas in Philadelphia. In the end, DeCosta will successfully inflate the stakes when the Eagles swap first round picks with the Ravens. When all is said and done, DeCosta will add an Eagles 4th-round pick (127) and 5th-round pick (163), 70.8 points per the Trade Value Chart.
And then with the 25th overall pick the Ravens will select Garrett Bradbury.
OR, they might trade back again…
If Bradbury or Clelin Ferrell are both gone, that’s exactly what I expect them to do.
— New Ravens GM Eric DeCosta has a strategy that hinges on the various scenarios that could unfold over the course of the draft. The situation will be fluid until the Ravens are on the clock and hinges on other teams. One way or another, he will be ready to fully tackle this draft.
— The late consensus is many teams are looking to move back in the draft. This means the Ravens could be locked into the 22nd overall pick and then maneuver in later rounds. However, I do suspect DeCosta will move out of the 22nd pick to gather more selections.
— If four quarterbacks are taken in the first round that will bode well for the Ravens. That means one of the top position players on their board could fall.
— Prediction: The Ravens will take an o-lineman or pass rusher with their first pick, whatever spot that might be.
My sort-of bold prediction is that the Ravens don’t make a first-round selection. The lack of a second-round pick looms large and I’m sure it’s kept EDC awake at night. This is a draft where the difference between 22 and 42 is not significant. So why not grab more draft capital in a game where luck is maybe just as important as skill?
Angling for as many picks as they can get in rounds 2-4, the Ravens make a series of trade-downs that eventually see them make their first selection in the mid 30’s.
Because even hedges are bold, if the Ravens stay at 22, they’ll take the first WR off the board…A.J. Brown.
While everyone is predicting a trade back to either the late first round or out of the first altogether, I’m not sure that’s going to happen. The meat in the draft is the late first into the early 3rd round. Other teams are well aware of that and unless a very coveted player is available, will stay where they are. That coveted player for the Ravens should be pass rusher, Clelin Ferrell. Now with the Frank Clark trade, the Seahawks may take him one spot ahead of the Ravens.
Many predictions also have the Ravens taking an interior offensive lineman at 22 as well. I’m not on board with any offensive lineman in that range unless it’s Cody Ford. Looking ahead, if a contract extension is not done with Ronnie Stanley that could mean Orlando Brown moves to left tackle and Ford moves to right tackle down the line. In the meantime, he’d be a plug-and-play starter at left guard immediately. Garrett Bradbury is much better suited for a zone blocking scheme and Erik McCoy is very talented but players with very similar talent can be had in the 3rd round.
The Ravens will pick at 22 and it’s going to be pass rusher, Clelin Ferrell. In a surprise slide, the Seahawks end up with Rashaan Gary at pick 21 due to shoulder concerns.
The 2019 Draft is an example of how the NFL is transforming. Teams this past offseason have either gone all in on free agency and trades to compete for the playoffs and beyond, or gutted their roster to start the rebuilding process after the success of the Browns, and we will see those ramifications in this year’s draft.
There are teams either trying to move back to capitalize on this deep draft, move up to get an average QB that will no doubt slow down their growth, or stay pay and let the talent fall to them. I firmly believe Baltimore has too many holes to fill with their current number of picks, so they will ideally move back. Unfortunately, other teams will have the same idea. Baltimore isn’t in a great spot at 22 for teams to move up unless a QB or wide receiver falls, so I expect Baltimore to stay pat.
The pick will be OT Jonah Williams out of the University of Alabama. If you are going to commit to this power zone run scheme, what better way to dominate then with the best offensive lineman in the draft? Jonah will most likely fall because of the dumb short-arms argument and the fact that he allowed a few sacks and pressures this past year, but that’s to be expected playing in the SEC. Baltimore will stand pat, grab the best offensive lineman in the draft, and focus on allocating more picks for Day 2.
Up until Tuesday, I would have said my bold prediction was the Ravens stay at 22 and pick Clelin Ferrell. However, with the Seahawks trading Frank Clark to KC, I don’t see Ferrell making it past them. Ferrell was probably the only prospect who if there, would make the Ravens turn in a card at 22. With that option seemingly off the table, I revert back to my original thought of trading back – twice in the first round.
First one happens when they drop back to pick 25 (Philly), who want to leapfrog the Raiders at 24 for either Josh Jacobs or ‘Hollywood’ Brown. But the Ravens aren’t finished there, they then drop back again to 30 (GB), as a defensive player the Packers love keeps falling down the board.
Finally, with the first round coming to a close, the Ravens make one last trade, going out of the first round altogether, in a trade with the N.Y. Giants. The Giants move back in into the first round for a third time by giving up their 2nd round pick (37).
In all with the three trades, the Ravens pick up a second rounder, three fourth rounders and a fifth.
And with the 37th pick of the draft, the Ravens select Chris Lindstrom, iOL from Boston College.
Happy Draft, RavensFlock! With no second-round pick this year, the Ravens will almost certainly look to trade back, especially considering the strength of the second and third rounds.
As far as what position they target, how the board falls to them will obviously be a big determining factor.
I’ve got to believe that an edge rusher is where their hopes lie. OL needs a little help, but they’ve had a ton of success drafting interior offensive lineman in the mid to late rounds in past drafts.
Wide receiver is the only need that you could argue is more pressing than a pass rusher.
If Clelin Ferrell is there at 22, they stay put and make the pick. If not, look for them to trade back to late first/early second and draft the best WR available. I’ll predict that Ferrell is off the board, the Ravens trade back 5-10 spots, and select…
WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who will either be a complete bust in this league or a star big-play wideout.
Sounds about right.
Maybe not a really “bold” prediction, but I believe the Ravens will trade out of the first round altogether and will acquire a few extra picks. With the depth at key positions being a little thinner than Eric DeCosta would like, he will ultimately decide to make the move. I predict the Giants will pass on a quarterback at pick six, and will move back up with the Ravens, and take Daniel Jones, or another quarterback who slides.
Ultimately the Ravens will gather that second rounder, plus a couple extra picks to fill out the roster. With this being a depth draft class in my eyes, this scenario makes the most sense for both teams.
#TeamTradeback is in full force: the Ravens slide to 25 in a swap with Philly, then take another dip down to 32 in a deal with Belichick. I want to get to Round 2, but at this point, they’ve accumulated a 3rd & a 4th, and barring a drop to 40-45 range, it won’t get much better, so the Ravens take BPA: EDGE Chase Winovich, Michigan.
EDC flocking nails his first pick as GM, and I can’t wait for Wino to become the future leader of this defense.
I have five players I’d be thrilled if the Ravens took at 22 who are not in everyone’s top 10: Devin White, Devin Bush, Brian Burns, Montez Sweat, and Cody Ford. Please follow on Twitter tonight (@filmstudyravens) as I analyze pick-by-pick how each selection is impacting the Ravens.
Garrett Bradbury looks like a player, but he’s a reach at 22. If the Ravens trade down to the end of the first round or into round 2, he’s a viable option, but the Ravens don’t have a lot of total draft capital this season and need to be careful with any selections that strongly emphasize need over value.
DK Metcalf won’t be available, so there won’t be drama with him. Surest prediction of the night: Ravens fans will collectively go ape when the team does not draft a receiver with their first selection.
What I expect will happen is the Ravens will try to trade down, but find no takers, even with Noah Fant on the board at 22. The Pats, who need to move up, try to take advantage of a buyer’s market for trading up and DeCosta doesn’t bite.
In the end, the Ravens stay at 22 and select Clelin Ferrell of Clemson for a much-needed boost on the edge.