Last Week: 5-10-1
Overall: 5-10-1 (33.3%)
Score Predictor Picks:
Last Week: 10-5-1
Overall: 10-5-1 (66.7%)
Week 1 Whiffs
— Just football. I was just below .500 for the early games, but got destroyed in the late games in Week 1. Thankfully I didn’t make the same mistakes at tangkasnet.
— I pegged the Falcons as one of my sleeper teams this season. Then they proceeded to go out and get trounced by a team whose quarterback threw for 98 yards. I still think they’ll be okay, but I’m concerned after that performance.
— My favorite miss of the week was the not your grandfather’s, but still your grandfather’s Cleveland Browns. Behind that crowd, I thought they would come out on fire and roll the Titans. The football gods had to pump the breaks on the bandwagon and remind everyone that they’re still the Browns. Well played football gods, well played.
I don’t normally play a ton in Week 1 because there are way too many unknowns at this point of the season. The same goes with Week 2 which is commonly referred to as Overreaction Week. However, if you pick your spots right, you can make some good money if you play those overreactions correctly.
As always, most importantly:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Here we go with Week 2…
Thursday – 9/12/19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (-6.5, o/u 49.5)
In Week 1, Carolina went toe-to-toe with the defending NFC Champs and nearly pulled off the victory. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, lost by two scores behind three picks from Jameis Winston. I see more of the same here from Tampa in Week 2 and a big bounce back game from Carolina in primetime.
In the last 10 matchups between these two teams, Carolina is 7-3 ATS with an average point differential of 7.0 points and an average home point differential of 8.8 points.
Score Predictor: Tampa Bay 19.1 – Carolina 26.8 (Carolina -6.5)
My Pick: Carolina -6.5
Sunday – 9/15/19
Arizona Cardinals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-13.5, o/u 46.5)
I think this spread is a bit of an overreaction to the Ravens’ destruction of the Dolphins. While I see the Ravens winning this one, I don’t see them covering the two touchdowns. Although the Cardinals don’t strike fear into many teams, they are still all-around better than Miami. They’ll keep it around 10 points here on Sunday.
I do also like the over. The up-tempo Cardinals offense paired with the Ravens’ new look could create fireworks.
Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as home favorites and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 against the NFC. Arizona is 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 one o’clock games. So pick your poison here…
Score Predictor: Arizona 18.2 – Baltimore 26.2 (Arizona +13.5)
My Pick: Arizona +13.5
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Detroit Lions (+2.5, o/u 47.5)
I feel like this spread is too good to be true (that means it usually is), but I’m going to fall right into Vegas’ trap. The Chargers squeaked out a win in Week 1 against an above average Luck-less Colts. Detroit on the other hand, tied the Cardinals. I can’t see a scenario where Detroit keeps this within two points against my personal Super Bowl favorite. Rivers should have a nice day and be able to move the ball at will to put up more than enough to cover this spread. If you can get it at 2.5, jump on it.
Dating back to last season, the Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Detroit is just 3-5 ATS in their last 8 home games with a -0.6 average point differential.
Score Predictor: Los Angeles 25.3 – Detroit 21.3 (Los Angeles -2.5)
My Pick: Los Angeles -2.5
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (-3, o/u 44.0)
Tennessee always crushes me when it comes to betting. On paper, they are unimpressive, but they always seem to put up a fight and somehow get into the playoff picture year after year. I did it to myself in Week 1 thinking Cleveland would have its way with the Titans and once again I paid the price.
I’m not going to do that this week. The Colts were able to keep it close with the Chargers due to Marlon Mack rushing 25 times for 174 yards. They won’t be able to do that against the Titans and Brissett will have to win this one with his arm. Until I see that happen, I have to stick with the Titans.
In their last 10 matchups with Tennessee, Indianapolis is 7-3 ATS with an average away point differential of 5.8 points. The Titans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.
Score Predictor: Indianapolis 26.6 – Tennessee 23.9 (Indianapolis +3)
My Pick: Tennessee -3
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins (+5, o/u 46.5)
Be honest, how many of you were watching the Redskins game in Week 1 on the ticker and praying that you weren’t going to once again tear up your survivor pool after one week? Washington put quite the scare into all of us, but ultimately reverted back to who any team would be with Case Keenum as their quarterback. Dallas, on the other hand, looked phenomenal in their win over the Giants and giving credibility to anyone who had them as Super Bowl contenders.
In my opinion, this line is only 5 points because this is a divisional game. Otherwise, this would have pushing a touchdown plus.
In their last 10 games against the Redskins, Dallas is 7-3 ATS with a 9.0 average point differential in Washington.
Score Predictor: Dallas 26.8 – Washington 19.4 (Dallas -5)
My Pick: Dallas -5
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (-3, o/u 44.0)
This is a game that I’m going to stay away from in Week 2. The Packers’ offense looked slow in Week 1, but they were playing against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Vikings offense, mostly it’s running game, looked dominant in their game against the Falcons. If Minnesota can put up that kind of effort again this week, they’ll be able to win this game outright in Lambeau.
Green Bay is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after an ATS win. The Vikings are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in September.
Score Predictor: Minnesota 19.5 – Green Bay 23.6 (Green Bay -3)
My Pick: Minnesota +3
Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, o/u 46.5)
Both teams underwhelmed in their opening matchups. The difference being, the Steelers underwhelmed against the Patriots and not the Bengals. I like the Steelers in this spot for a few reasons. First, their defense isn’t as bad as they showed in Week 1. They have the ability to shut teams down and they’ll do that this week against Russell Wilson. And second, Seattle is traveling across country to play in the early time slot on Sunday. That normally doesn’t bode well for West coast teams.
I’m taking Pittsburgh and the points at home.
Seattle is 1-8 straight up and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 September road games. The Steelers are 13-3 straight up in their last 16 home games against West Coast teams.
Score Predictor: Seattle 21.9 – Pittsburgh 27.0 (Pittsburgh -4)
My Pick: Pittsburgh -4
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (-8.5, o/u 43.5)
Another game I’m going to stay away from this week. Jacksonville lost Nick Foles to a broken collarbone in Week 1 so Gardner Minshew will take over for the Jags. He performed well in place of Foles, going 22 for 25 for 275 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. I don’t think he’ll have that kind of stat line against the Texans, but I do think he’ll be able to do enough to keep it relatively close. And maybe I’m a fool for jumping on this one last time, but the Jags defense has to show up at some point don’t they?
Houston is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against Jacksonville overall, but only 3-4 ATS at home.
Score Predictor: Jacksonville 17.7 – Houston 21.1 (Jacksonville +8.5)
My Pick: Jacksonville +8.5
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants (+1.5, o/u 43.5)
Buffalo bailed me out in Week 1 as I had them winning outright against the Jets. This week, they’ll face off against another bad New York team.
Buffalo’s defense will prove to be too much for Eli Manning and company in this matchup. They were outstanding in Week 1 and that will continue here. The Bills offense struggled early, but turned it around late to score just enough points to take down the Jets. The Giants don’t have as good of a defense as their stadium mates, so Buffalo should be able to score some points to easily cover the 1.5-point spread and complete the all-New York sweep to start the season.
Score Predictor: Buffalo 18.5 – New York 24.1 (New York +1.5)
My Pick: Buffalo -1.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, o/u 45.0)
These teams had opposite performances with opposite results in Week 1. Cincinnati surprised a lot of people by going out West and hanging with Seattle, but ultimately lost by a point. On the other side, had San Francisco been playing anyone other than Jameis Winston, they probably would be 0-1 to start this campaign as well, but they ended up winning by two scores on the backs of two defensive touchdowns.
The trends here are big time in Cincinnati’s favor, but I see this going in the other direction. Garoppolo should be able to put up numbers against the Bengals defense to win this game outright.
San Francisco is 1-9 straight up and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 September road games. Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 September home games.
Score Predictor: San Francisco 24.3 – Cincinnati 25.2 (San Francisco +1.5)
My Pick: San Francisco +1.5
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (+19, o/u 48.0)
New England comes to Miami where they’ve historically struggled as the Dolphins try to rebound after being embarrassed by Baltimore last week. This game opened at 15, but quickly moved to 18.5 and now it sits at 19 points meaning there has been a ton of action on New England even at that high number. I’m not going to personally bet this game because I hate high numbers like this in the NFL. However, with members of the Dolphins already asking to be traded after one game, this could turn out to be a dumpster fire unlike any we have seen in the NFL.
Side note, they are going all out to lose for Tua who I don’t think is going to be a very good NFL quarterback. The NFL is going to have a real problem on their hands next season in my opinion if this works out for Miami as you’ll most likely have a “Tank for Trevor” race for the worst record in football.
Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Patriots. They are also only 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games in September.
Score Predictor: New England 28.2 – Miami 24.2 (Miami +19)
My Pick: New England -19
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders (+8, o/u 53.0)
Oakland surprised some people in Week 1 with a relatively convincing win against the Broncos. I didn’t anticipate the Raiders being able to move the ball as well as they did against Denver’s defense. Derek Carr was accurate and Josh Jacobs was consistent. That recipe will work well against average teams like the Broncos, but that won’t work well this week against Kansas City. They will need to put up points and they just don’t have the horses to do that. Their only hope at covering here will be a steady diet of Jacobs to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. I like Kansas City on the road.
Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 matchups with Oakland with a 6.4 average point differential on the road. Oakland has covered their last 2 home games against Kansas City.
Score Predictor: Kansas City 28.8 – Oakland 25.0 (Oakland +9.5)
My Pick: Kansas City -8
Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos (+2.5, o/u 40.5)
This game had another big line move this week. It opened with Denver as 1-point favorites but they have moved to 2.5-point underdogs as it stands today. If you got the Bears as dogs, good for you, I think this is the lock of the week. After a disappointing performance in Week 1, they’re going to be hungry and dominate in Denver. After seeing how Oakland held the Broncos’ offense in check, I can only imagine what the Bears defense will do this week. Add to that the extra rest that the Bears have after having played on Thursday night and I like the Bears to cover and the under to hit in this one.
Denver is 0-5 straight up and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 September games, but are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games against the NFC North. Chicago is 4-12 straight up in their last 16 September games.
Score Predictor: Chicago 20.7 – Denver 19.0 (Denver +2.5)
My Pick: Chicago -2.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3, o/u 53.5)
The matchup we’ve all been waiting for. After New Orleans was robbed of a birth in the Super Bowl by a terrible no-call, they get their chance at revenge in Week 2. Emotion sometimes plays a big role in the NFL and the Saints should have that wave on their side. I like them to shut down Jared Goff, who I think is going to have a Flacco-esc (okay, maybe not that bad) slide after he signed his big contract, and win outright.
I also don’t think this will be as high scoring as the over/under indicates as I think the final score will be in the 45-50 range.
New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Rams are 8-1 straight up in their last 9 home games.
Score Predictor: New Orleans 27.7 – Los Angeles 25.9 (New Orleans +3)
My Pick: New Orleans +3
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons (+1.5, o/u 51.0)
The line in this game started as a pick-em, but has since moved to favor the Eagles. If you can get this game at -1.5, that’s a good investment. In the second half last week, Carson Wentz began to look like the MVP candidate from a few years back.
Atlanta got run over in Week 1 by Minnesota and I expect Philadelphia to do the same. I do expect points in this one and the total to go over 51.
Ultimately, Wentz will use the momentum from the second half of last week and carry that into Atlanta this week which should allow the Eagles to win and cover the 1.5 easily.
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS over their past 8 games as home underdogs. Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Score Predictor: Philadelphia 24.2 – Atlanta 23.2 (Atlanta +1.5)
My Pick: Philadelphia -1.5
Monday – 9/16/19
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets (+2.5, o/u 46)
Okay Cleveland, you let me down in Week 1, don’t do it to me again. I’m going to use the same logic here as I used in the Bears game. Cleveland is hungry and if there’s such a thing as a must win game in Week 2, this is it as their next opponents are the Los Angeles Rams, at Baltimore, at San Francisco, Seattle, and at New England. Starting 0-2 before that stretch could doom their season before it gets started.
That being said, they’ll rebound nicely here under the bright lights of New York on Monday night. If nothing else, this team is full of a bunch of personalities that yearn for the spotlight and they’ll get plenty of that on Monday.
Cleveland wins by a touchdown.
The Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after an ATS loss. Since 2010, the Jets are 5-1 ATS against Cleveland.
Score Predictor: Cleveland 24.0 – New York 22.8 (New York +2.5)
My Pick: Cleveland -2.5
As I reviewed my picks, I’ve picked WAY more road teams than I normally like to, but I can’t see some of them going the other way based on the numbers. In those away games are a few that I love this week (Chicago -2.5 and Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 to name a few), but there’s never a sure thing when betting the NFL. Good luck to you in your picks this week!