Last week’s lineup was paced by Run CMC going bonkers with 237 total yards and 3 TD for 50.70 points. Tom Brady predictably went for 348 yards and 3 TD on his way to 27.92 points. The Panthers defense came through for us once again with a scoop and score, leading to 14 points.
The rest of the lineup was solid throughout. KeeSean Johnson’s 5.50 points were the low water mark but at his modest 3,500 salary that wasn’t a killer. Maybe the biggest disappointment was Zeke Elliott, as the Cowboys fell behind and created a sub-optimal game script for him. He finished with 91 yards and a TD, solid but not what we had in mind for 8,300 in salary.
In total the lineup put up 158.42 points, ok but not the tournament killer we’re looking for. On to Week 6.
QB Gardner Minshew vs. New Orleans
The Saints defense has been good this year. They’ve carried over their standout run defense from last year and have the 6th best adjusted sack rate in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. Despite all that they’ve allowed 20 or more fantasy points to four of the five QBs they’ve faced this season. Only four teams have given up more yards per completion (12.8) than New Orleans. This is a great mesh with the aggressive rookie signal-caller who’s 7th in adjusted yards gained per pass attempt. I also expect the Saints great run defense to hold up against Leonard Fournette and funnel a few more opportunities to Gardner Minshew. He’s a very underrated play this week.
DraftKings salary: 5,000
RB Mark Ingram vs. Cincinnati
Coming off his most decisive snap share of the season (65%), Ingram lands in a great spot at home versus the Bengals defense. They’ve given up 5.1 yards per carry and over a TD a game to RBs. With a ton of questions of their own, I expect the Ravens to try to control this game on the ground early and often. As long as the game doesn’t go so far in Baltimore’s favor that Gus Edwards comes in to kill the clock, Ingram should be in line for multiple scoring opportunities.
DraftKings salary: 6,600
RB Chris Carson @ Cleveland
Chris Carson went from being in danger of being benched to back-to-back 100-yard rushing games. He has a great chance to keep right on rolling in Cleveland. The Browns give up the 8th most points per game to RBs and allow 5 yards a carry. While I do think Baker Mayfield could be a sneaky tournament play with versus the Seahawks’ shaky pass rush and secondary, it’s just as and probably more likely that the Browns pass offense struggles again and the Seahawks control the game on the ground. Carson has a good chance to notch his 3rd straight 100-yard game, this time with a couple TDs to add to it.
DraftKings salary: 6,000
WR Michael Thomas @ Jacksonville
Count me among those who were a little nervous about Michael Thomas’ production in Teddy Bridgewater’s first action for the injured Drew Brees. Those concerns were quieted quickly as Thomas has balled out the last two weeks, catching 20 of his 22 targets for 277 yards and 2 TDs. I mentioned only four teams are giving up more yards per completion then the Saints, well one of them is the Jaguars and they are expected to be without all-world corner Jalen Ramsey once again. Michael Thomas is THE no brainer play of the week, regardless of position.
DraftKings salary: 7,800
WR Michael Gallup @ New York (Jets)
Michael Gallup got right back to it in his return to action for the Cowboys last week. He turned 14 targets into 7 catches 113 yards and a TD. I don’t expect the game script to lead him to another 14 targets but his target share is secure and his vertical ability matched up against a talent deficient corner group is too good for me to pass up at the sub 6K price.
DraftKings salary: 5,600
WR Stephon Diggs vs. Philadelphia
I feel a get-well game coming for Stefon Diggs. The Eagles have bled production to the wide receiver position, giving up the 3rd most points per game. The Eagles stellar run defense combined with a capable offense will force the Vikings to the air more than grumpy old Mike Zimmer would prefer. Creating opportunities for Diggs versus slowish boundary corner Rasul Douglas. It would be a stretch to say the volume will be plentiful but I do expect Diggs to get 7 to 9 looks which are enough for him to cash versus this secondary.
DraftKings salary: 5,900
TE Gerald Everett vs. San Francisco
Gerald Everett is starting to fight his way into the target pie in LA with 19 over the last two games. The Niners have defended tight ends well but more impressively have been great versus wide receivers across the board. Between this and their threatening pass rush (3rd in adjusted sack rate), we could see more targets pushed to Everett. At this price, it won’t too much for him to pay off but his Jordan Reed-esque athletic profile gives you a ceiling as well if he gets loose after the catch.
DraftKings salary: 3,600
Flex Le’Veon Bell vs. Dallas
I doubt there is anybody happier to see someone then Le’Veon Bell was to see Sam Darnold at practice this week. With Luke Falk at QB, the last couple weeks he had to feel like 11 sets of eyes were on him every snap. He should have a lot more chances at success this week versus a Cowboy team that allows over nine targets per game to RB’s and 4.5 yards per carry. Their also top 6 in TDs allowed to the position. Le’Veon has remained one of the league’s few workhorse backs, now he has a chance to cash in on those touches with scoring opportunities.
DraftKings salary: 6,400
Defense Titans @ Denver
So yall know me. I’m back in the bargain bin this week. The Titans defense has played pretty well over the last couple weeks including going into Atlanta and holding them to 10 points. They now rank 5th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate heading to face the Broncos, who didn’t get their first 20-point game until week 4, the only game Joe Flacco didn’t take at least two sacks in. I’m going to take my chances that despite coming off their first win of the season, the Broncos don’t have an offensive explosion in them.
DraftKings salary: 2,900