Tight Games the Norm in Ravens-Pats

Coming off the bye week, the Ravens look ahead to their toughest test of the season as they take on the New England Patriots next Sunday night in primetime (a rare home primetime game for Baltimore). While the surface numbers – the 2019 record, head-to-head records, offensive and defensive rankings – may tell one story, perhaps a deeper dive into some stats and numbers can reveal more about the upcoming tilt between AFC title contenders?

Let’s have some fun with numbers!

*pushes up glasses*

*busts out TI-83 Plus calculator*

*remembers TI-83 Plus calculators are useless because it’s not 2002 anymore*

Of the current group of wide receivers for the Patriots, only Edelman and Sanu have faced the Ravens. The two have a combined 13 games, 38 receptions on 78 targets, 460 yards & 1 touchdown against Baltimore, averaging a mere 2.9 receptions for 35.3 yards per game, combined.

Their stat lines are nearly identical, with Julian Edelman having one more game versus the Ravens, but neither really showing up big. Edelman’s sole touchdown came in a 31-30 Baltimore win back in 2012, and his best game came in 2013 when he had 7 catches on 11 targets for 77 yards. Mohamed Sanu‘s best game against Baltimore came as a member of the Bengals in 2014, when he pulled in 5 catches on 9 targets for 125 yards. He hasn’t broken 40 yards in any of the other games against the Ravens.

[Related: Strange Things Happen When the Pats & Ravens Meet at M&T Bank Stadium]

Full disclosure, neither Pats player has the team’s best track record against the Ravens of their 10 skill players with previous games versus Baltimore. That title belongs to former Raven, Ben Watson. Watson leads the Patriots skill players with the most games played (9), targets (45), receptions (29), yards (301) and touchdowns (2) all time against Baltimore. His touchdown against Baltimore in 2018 as a member of the Saints was the most recent score against the Ravens by any current Patriots player.

Brady’s 59.44% completion percentage versus the Ravens is his lowest against any NFL opponent.

For a quarterback whose team is 6-1 in the regular season against the Ravens when he starts (note – QB Wins is not a real stat) you would think that his completion percentage would be higher than sub-60%. Brady also has 9 touchdowns over those games to go with 4 interceptions and 2 fumbles. The Ravens defense has largely kept Brady in check over the years, and kept these games closer than many would expect (more on this later).

Jackson is averaging 82.3 rushing yards per game. At that rate, he should finish the New England game at 2,011 career rushing yards, moving him to 9th overall in Ravens history as he’d pass Bernard Pierce, and just 30 yards shy of Alex Collins for 8th.

In fact, at Lamar Jackson‘s current trajectory, he’ll finish the 2019 season with 2,011 career rushing yards, which move him up to 5th in team history behind Priest Holmes (2,102), Willis McGahee (2,802), Ray Rice (6,180) and Jamal Lewis (7,801). His season projection would be 1,316 rushing yards, which would be the 6th best rushing season by any Raven in team history (only players named Jamal Lewis or Ray Rice sit in the top-5).

I know what you’re wondering, and yes, I did the math. If Lamar continued his 82.3 ypg rushing pace, he’d take over the #1 rushing spot in Ravens history on Week 3 of the 2023 season. 

Crazy, but not inconceivable by any means…

The Ravens are 3-5 against New England under John Harbaugh, with 5 of the 8 games of the one-score variety. Comparatively, 5 of the Patriots last 23 regular season games have been of the one-score variety.

Plenty of New England fanatics want to point to their 8-1 record versus Baltimore since the Ravens came into the league in 1996, but the stat is misleading in many ways. For one, I’m not a huge fan of using historic facts because I simply don’t think a Vinny Testaverde versus Drew Bledsoe game in ’96 has any bearing on a game in 2019. I think finding a common ground – the Harbaugh regime versus Belichick regime – is a much better analysis. I also include the playoffs, simply because the Ravens are 2-2 against the Pats in the postseason, and it’s part of the discussion. But realizing the Ravens are keeping the Pats in one score games 62.5% of matchups, while the past 2 seasons New England has a 21.7% one-score clip is very telling. 

Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 9-2 coming out of the bye week (7-1 at home post-bye), with an average score of 25-15, and a 10-point margin of victory.

If you give the Ravens more time to prepare, they’ll make you pay. The only 2 loses coming out of the bye for the Ravens during the Harbaugh regime were a 2015 loss to the Jags at home, and a 2013 road loss to the Browns. Both games were one-score games (22-20 loss to Jacksonville, 17-24 loss to the Browns), but let’s test your Ravens history… do you remember how the Ravens lost that game to the Jaguars?

With the Ravens up 20-19, Blake Bortles made a desperation throw with time expiring… when Elvis Dumervil was flagged for a facemask on Bortles. A 15-yard penalty moved Jacksonville into field goal range and they won on a 53-yard Jason Myers field goal on an untimed down. 

Had it not been for that penalty, the Ravens would be 8-0 at home coming out of the bye under John Harbaugh. Not too shabby.