Week 10 was a good one. My receiver hunches hit in a major way with Christian Kirk going for 138 yards on six catches with three touchdowns (40.80 points) and Darius Slayton going for 121 yards on 10 catches with two touchdowns. Hollywood Brown rounded out the group with 80 yards and a TD (18 points).
McCaffrey did McCaffrey things with 141 total yards and a TD (29.10). Tyler Eifert didn’t get the volume I expected but he scored a TD (10 points) and was 1 percent owned 😊.
As good as this lineup did, the surprising result of Saints/Falcons owes us a lot of money. New Orleans came out so flat that Matt Ryan only needed 182 yards passing to dispose of them when he had gone over 300 yards in every other game he finished this season. Alvin Kamara had the snap share we were looking for and his 12 touches were fine, but 74 yards and no score was not.
Devin Singletary underwhelming 50 total yards (8 points) and the Chiefs’ inability to tackle Derrick Henry (5 points) didn’t help matters either.
All in all, the lineup ended up with 178.98 points. Enough to give you plenty of smaller-scale success but we’re not popping champagne just yet. I’m shooting to take down a big tournament. The hunt continues in week 11.
QB Lamar Jackson vs. Houston
Usually, in a game like last week where the Bengals didn’t put up a fight, you worry about the ceiling of the passing game players on the opposite side, especially the QB.
Lamar Jackson scored 33.4 points on 36 snaps. Let me repeat, Lamar Jackson scored 33.4 points on 36 snaps. At this price point, there are obvious concerns about what he needs to accomplish to pay off his price tag but I’m going to bet on the expectation that the Texans put up much more of a fight than Cincy did…oh, and his absurd, cheat code-like talent.
DraftKings salary: 7,700
RB Christian McCaffrey vs. Atlanta
Speaking of absurd talents…This week was a little tougher for me trying to create a lineup I felt would be incredibly unique. One way I’ve decided to differentiate is to pay up for the QB1 and the RB1. There is nothing left to be said about CMC that hasn’t already been said. The only pause he gives you is price but I’m feeling spendy today.
DraftKings salary: 10,500
RB Josh Jacobs vs. Cincinnati
Admittingly I haven’t played enough Josh Jacobs this year. His 14 catches on the year isn’t ideal but this matchup today is the definition of ideal. The Raiders are 10-point favorites. The Bengals give up the 5th most points per game to running backs, including a healthy 4.79 yards per carry. Jacobs should be looking at 20 carry floor and if it makes you feel better, he had 3 catches for 30 yards on 5 targets last week, all season highs. Jacobs is an easy top 5 RB play this week.
DraftKings salary: 6,900
WR DJ Moore vs. Atlanta
Moore has balled out the last couple weeks, going over 100 yards receiving in each of the last 2 games. He’s averaged 10 targets a game over the last 4 games. He’ll line up most often against CB Isaiah Oliver, who gave up 9 catches for 105 yards on 11 targets in coverage per playerprofiler.com. With a concerted effort to get him the ball and a plus matchup, I’m gonna give Moore a go while I can under 6K.
DraftKings salary: 5,900
WR Terry McLaurin vs. New York (Jets)
His QB only appearing in 3 games and averaging 6.5 yards per attempt is an unavoidable negative but McLaurin has a lot of positives going for him heading into this week. Only the Bucs have given up more production on a weekly basis to wide receivers than the Jets. As I’ve pointed out before, they have probably the least talented group of corners in the NFL. Then there’s interim head coach Bill Callahan’s stated desire to move him around the field more, seemingly to get him the ball. There’s also the Jets run defense to contend with; they held Saquon Barkley to 1 yard (not a typo) on 13 carries last week and have been stout all year. They’ll almost certainly funnel more opportunities into the direction of the passing game. Oh, and Paul Richardson and Vernon Davis have been already been ruled out due to injuries. I understand Dwayne Haskins’ effectiveness is the most important factor here but even if he isn’t great, McLaurin should have a monster target share in this game going against guys that can’t cover him. I’ll take my chances.
DraftKings salary: 5,600
WR Russell Gage @ Carolina
Gage is the #1 savings play at wide receiver this week. In the 2 games since Mohammed Sanu was traded, Gage has target shares of 17% and 14%. With Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman set to miss time he stands to see that number push towards 20 or more as an underneath target in the slot for Matt Ryan. Panthers slot corner Ross Cockrell has been ruled out due to injury, further solidifying Gage as a rock-solid play.
DraftKings salary: 3,300
TE Eric Ebron vs. Jacksonville
The Colts are running out of people to throw to at receiver. Ebron ran 31 routes with 5 red-zone targets last week and without TY Hilton, Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell again this week it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ebron was able to approach that 30 percent target share again. The Jaguars are 22nd in points per game allowed to tight ends but that ranking is weighted down by the 5 TDs they’ve allowed to the position. They’ve generally defended the position well in most other metrics but Ebron’s projected volume makes him a go-to pay down play.
DraftKings salary: 3,600
Flex Brian Hill @ Carolina
Week 11 waiver wire darling, Brian Hill will be a very popular play this weekend. With Devonta Freeman out and Ito Smith on IR, Hill could potentially play every offensive snap for the Falcons in this game versus a Panther defense giving up 5 yards per carry and the 2nd most points per game to RB’s. Hill is a no-brainer play this week and if we miss, we won’t be alone.
DraftKings salary: 4,800
Defense Cardinals @ San Francisco
Most people start looking at salary lists from the top but me, an intellectual, I look at defenses from the bottom up. I know Jimmy G just hit this defense up for 4 TD passes not 3 weeks ago… but hear me out. The 49ers played an overtime game on Monday night. A game where they gave up 6 sacks to a team ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate. Arizona is ranked 18th and has 27 sacks on the season. LT Joe Staley will be out of the lineup again and returning RT Mike McGlinchey had a rough return to the lineup. The 49ers will also be without Matt Breida and possibly Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle as well. I’m not projecting the Cardinals to go to San Fran and lock up a Kyle Shanahan-led offense, but the signs of a potential below-par game are there with massive savings to be had if you’re willing to live a little.
DraftKings salary: 1,500