I love it when a plan comes together. Most every game I had exposure to followed a game script I anticipated and that made for a productive day. The Browns jumped on the Dolphins through the air as Baker Mayfield had his best fantasy performance of the season with 327 yards and 3 TD (27.58 points), one of them going to Odell Beckham Jr. who had 84 yards on 6 receptions (20.40 points).
We knew going in that Leonard Fournette hadn’t scored nearly enough touchdowns considering his massive workload. He finally hit with 2 rushing TD and caught 9 passes amid a blowout (36.90 points). The catalyst for that blowout? Derrick Henry trampled the Jags again with 159 yards rushing and 2 TD (32.50 points)
Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki combined for a solid 26.90 points in that game stack with Baker and OBJ and Calvin Ridley kept it rolling with 85 yards and a TD on 6 catches (22 points).
My bet against the Bills ultimately cost this lineup the chance to truly print money. I loved the way the Broncos D matched up with Bills offense and I figured they’d come in and run the ball well and force turnovers. Phillip Lindsay finished with 68 total yards. The Broncos defense didn’t play poorly but didn’t have enough splash plays to make a difference (4 points). This is a prime example of how difficult it can be to nail a truly killer tournament lineup but we’re moving dangerously close. On to week 13.
QB Jared Goff @ Arizona
Coming off a rough November I’m going to take a chance on Goff starting off December well in a sweet matchup. The Cardinals are one of only two teams that give up over 300 passing yards per game to QBs and they’ve allowed the most passing TD in the NFL with 29. The Rams’ pass protection is always a concern but the Cardinals pass rush is not at the level where I’m shying away (19th in adjusted sack rate per football outsiders). Goff should be low-owned, comes in at a reasonable price and does have some upside in what I think could be a shootout.
DraftKings salary: 6,000
RB Saquon Barkley vs. Green Bay
Barkley is clearly not himself. He hasn’t been as explosive and elusive as we’re used to seeing him but he’s still playing virtually every snap and handling the lion’s share of the work for the G-Men. This week he faces a Packers team that gives up 5 yards per carry and allows the 10th most targets per game to RBs. Even in a slate missing some of the top RBs I expect Barkley to go lower-owned based on his health and recent box scores, creating an opportunity for us to reap the benefits in a great spot.
DraftKings salary: 7,400
RB Le’Veon Bell @ Cincinnati
His 17 touches last week were his low water mark over the past month. He fell victim to 3 short-yardage TD by teammates last week in a blowout win versus the Raiders but the Jets have a chance to keep the points rolling versus Cincy. The Bengals give up 4.7 yards per carry to RBs and have allowed the 3rd most rushing TDs in the league at 13. Bell has a secure touch share and a great matchup this week… just need some TD luck.
DraftKings salary: 7,200
WR Davante Adams @ New York (Giants)
Adams has 33 targets in the 3 games since his return to the lineup…the next closest player in that span for the Packers has 15 (Cap tip to Ian Hartitz). Only the Bucs have given up more points per game to the wide receiver position than the Giants. Especially at this price, Adams is one of the no brainer plays of the week.
DraftKings salary: 7,000
WR DJ Chark vs. Tampa Bay
See above for the matchup. Chark disappointed a bit last week but he has a 22% target share on the season and he just had a 15-target game in Nick Foles’ first game back in Week 11. In another game with shootout potential, Chark is one of my favorite plays this week.
DraftKings salary: 6,600
WR Brandin Cooks @Arizona
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods will be popular plays and stacks with Goff this week so I’m choosing to zig. Cooks returned to the lineup versus the Ravens and played the 2nd most snaps at wide receiver. He had a modest 4 catches for 32 yards and 1 carry for a yard but he was facing maybe the best secondary in the NFL. He may wind up seeing Patrick Peterson most often in coverage, and while that’s usually a fade-worthy proposition, Peterson has given up at least 70 yards receiving in every game since his return from suspension according to playerprofiler.com. I’m taking my chances here on Cooks breaking off a long scoring play.
DraftKings salary: 5,200
TE Jack Doyle vs. Tennessee
I’ve tried to step outside of the box with these lineups but I’m 100% following the crowd here. With Eric Ebron on IR, TY Hilton ruled out for the game and the Titans ranking 25th versus tight ends in per-game scoring, you’d be a fool not to have exposure to Doyle at this price.
DraftKings salary: 3,300
Flex Darrel Williams vs. Oakland
It’s trending towards Damien Williams missing this week with a rib injury and that places Darrel Williams squarely in play. LeSean McCoy is tentatively expected to play but trust in him has seemed to wane from a pass protection and ball security standpoint. I’m not expecting Williams to be a full-on feature back, he may even be out-touched but double-digit touches in this offense are incredibly valuable so I’m using this as a vehicle to get exposure to the highest totaled game of the slate at 51 points.
DraftKings salary: 4,400
Defense Ravens vs. San Francisco
The Ravens defense has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the last 5 games. Three of those games were quarterbacked by Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Tom Brady.
The Niners have been very good on offense. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown 20 TD and averages 8.1 yards per attempt. He also has 10 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles on the season.
The Ravens are expected to get Michael Pierce back on the defensive line which will make a huge difference versus the run. If they can force this game into Jimmy G’s hands, they have an excellent shot at making it 6 games in a row with double-digit fantasy points.
DraftKings salary: 2,800