Life comes at you fast. I went into Week 13 with the right intentions, ate healthily, exercised, and put together what I thought was a lineup that was going to get this article over the top. The Jared Goff call started us off well. Even though the Rams controlled this game handily throughout, the pace (2 of the top 3 fastest teams) and struggles on both sides for the Cardinals helped Goff post 424 yards passing along with 2 TDs (27.96 points). Davante Adams didn’t put up gaudy yardage totals (64 yards on 6 receptions) but he got in the end zone twice to score 24.40 points. Jack Doyle produced as one of the focal points of the Colts passing attack, going for 6 catches 73 yards and a TD (19.30).
The RBs didn’t flop per se but neither got in the end zone so…well yea, that’s a flop. The New York teams scored a combined 19 points, leaving Saquon Barkley and Le’Veon Bell short on chances to hit pay dirt. The two combined for 25.20 points.
The rest of the lineup went off the rails. I tried to go outside the box and pair Goff with Brandin Cooks and as it turns out it was contrarian for a reason…Cooks had 2 catches for 24 yards while Jerry Rice, I mean Robert Woods caught 13 passes for 172 yards. D.J. Chark disappointed in a smash spot (2 catches for 47 yards). Darrel Williams scored a TD but left the game due to injury with 16 yards on 7 touches (8.60 points). The Ravens were fine with 7 points at 2,800 but we needed about 10 Marcus Peters pick-sixes to turn this lineup into a Milli winner but unfortunately, we didn’t get them…On to week 14.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick @ New York (Jets)
Time and time again, Fitzpatrick rises from the dead like the undertaker to be fantasy relevant. This week he might be my favorite QB play. With the Jets run defense among the very best in the league but ranking 24th in adjusted sack rate per football outsiders coupled with the Dolphins fringe at best RB group…will the Dolphins even call a run in this game? Fitzpatrick hung 288 yards and 3 TDs on the Jets in a Week 9 victory and I expect similar results on Sunday.
DraftKings salary: 6,000
RB Alvin Kamara vs. San Francisco
Kamara has double-digit carries in 3 of 4 since his return from injury. He also has 37 targets in that span. None of the supplementary targets have stepped to the forefront (Hell, not even the background) for this Saints passing game and I don’t expect them to suddenly do it versus this stout San Francisco pass defense…giving Kamara a chance at all the touches he can handle as a safety valve against the vaunted 49ers pass rush that will be back on a fast track after being grounded by the elements and the Ravens run-centric offense. Kamara 2018 had the touchdowns and splash plays that Kamara 2019 hasn’t but his opportunity + his price is worth the risk to see if he can recreate some of last year’s magic.
DraftKings salary: 7,000
RB Melvin Gordon @ Jacksonville
Melvin Gordon had a rough return from his holdout the first 4 games back but after the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, Gordon has really picked it up. In those 4 games, he has 356 yards on 76 carries and 3 TD. Now he faces a Jaguars team who’s giving up a healthy 5.29 yards per carry and has allowed over 200 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games. This is as easy a play as you’ll get.
DraftKings salary: 6,400
WR Devante Parker @ New York (Jets)
I still can’t believe we’ve made it here. Where is here you ask? I faded Parker last week and he made me pay dearly. Quietly the Eagles defense had been among the best in the league over the last month. I knew people would go there based on their season-long numbers, so I pivoted…and he proceeded to hang 7 catches for 159 yards and two TD’s on the Eagles heads.
Sorry Devante, never again. Parker has double-digit targets in each of the last 4 games and the Jets corners are #notgood. Long live the Fitz-Parker stack.
DraftKings salary: 6,900
WR Robby Anderson vs. Miami
Look who decided to get themselves some volume last week? Robby had a season-high 10 targets last week versus the Bengals and he turned it into 7 catches for 101 yards. He had 173 air yards last week after having 94 the week before. Anderson’s volume is about as secure as Jason Garrett’s job but the matchup is a great one as the Dolphins give up the 3rd most points per game to wide receivers.
DraftKings salary: 5,100
WR Parris Campbell @ Tampa Bay
The Colts will be without TY Hilton, Eric Ebron, Chester Rogers, and Devin Funchess this week. The last time we saw Campbell he played 62% of the snaps, caught all 5 targets and had 3 carries for 27 yards. The matchup is a great one as the Bucs give up the most points per week to wide receivers in the NFL. I expect Campbell to supplant Ashton Dulin in 3 wide receiver sets and have involvement in the slot and thru schemed touches. I’m not expecting fireworks for this Colts offense this week but Campbell’s price and opportunity gives us some real leeway with our lineup. He’s my favorite cheap play this week.
DraftKings salary: 3,200
TE George Kittle @ New Orleans
Kittle’s slow game in the rain last week, coupled with his price could create a lower ownership opportunity for us this week. While this 49ers passing game isn’t voluptuous, Kittle is the unquestioned main course. The Saints offense, coupled with their stout run defense (3.5 yards per carry allowed) figure to force San Francisco to the air at least a few more times than normal. These teams both play slow, ranking 28th and 29th respectfully in pace so I’m tempering my target expectations to a degree but 6 to 8 should get it done for Kittle, regardless of opponent.
DraftKings salary: 5,900
Flex Julian Edelman vs. Kansas City
I usually go RB in the flex, they’re usually just a much safer proposition but I decided to switch it up a bit while still keeping a strong floor. Edelman sports a 25% target share in the Patriots offense and has had double-digit targets in 9 of the 12 games they’ve played.
The rest of the Patriots receiver corps went from Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon to looking less and less open by the week. Talented 1st rounder N’Keal Harry even saw his snaps scaled back last week. The upside just doesn’t seem to be there with this group which will continue to make Edelman a very busy man. That floor could turn into quite the ceiling if Mahomes and company can force New England into a negative game script.
DraftKings salary: 7,100
Defense Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis
They’re cheap. They have 11 sacks in the last two games. Jacoby Brissett will be without all the receivers I touched on above…Did I mention they were cheap?
If playing Campbell and the Bucs defense makes you uneasy you play the Colts defense versus turnover-prone Jameis Winston. You’d also get the added bonus of Parris Campbell as a returner if he has a return touchdown you get the TD twice.
You could also play the Cardinals defense at home versus the Duckster. Either alternative option will squeeze right in at 2,400. I’ll be playing variations of all 3.
DraftKings salary: 2,300