Super Bowl LIV & Prop Bet Picks

The Back Door Cover Super Bowl LIV & Prop Bet Picks

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My Picks

Last Week: 2-0

Playoff Record: 6-3-1

Overall: 121-137-8 (46.9%)

Score Predictor Picks

Last Week: 0-2

Playoff Record: 4-5-1

Overall: 145-113-8 (56.2%)

(*The Score Predictor is a tool I created that takes over a decade’s worth of score and spread data to predict the final score of each game. It places higher weights on more recent games as well as games against the opponent that week. Ultimately, it outputs a final home team and away team score that is used to make a pick against the spread.)

Conference Championship Whiffs

— Not applicable. That feels good to say for once this season…

An undefeated Conference Championship round was just what the doctor ordered. The only portion of the games I missed was the over/under of the 49ers game. I had Green Bay not being able to do much offensively, but they ended up with 20 points, which pushed the game over the total.

Here are how the numbers break down and the ATS rankings of the Chiefs and 49ers:

 

As always, most importantly:

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money.  I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along.  I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Here are my Super Bowl and Prop picks…

Sunday – 2/2/20

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, o/u 53.5)

Kansas City’s journey to this Super Bowl reminds me so much of the 2011 and 2012 Ravens’ seasons. Had it not been for a terrible offsides against Dee Ford in the 2018 playoffs, the Chiefs would be in their second straight Super Bowl this season. That type of miscue against the Patriots is awfully similar to Lee Evans/Billy Cundiff, isn’t it? The Ravens used that heartbreak to go out and win the Super Bowl the next season.

Kansas City has that same opportunity against the same opponent. The symmetry is crazy.

This game is simple to dissect. Kansas City needs to stop San Francisco’s running game and San Francisco needs to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Whichever team does a better job at their respective task, will win Super Bowl 54.

The reason I’m backing the Chiefs hard in this game is because there are two ways they can slow down the 49ers rushing offense. First would be by simply playing great defense up-front and that starts with Chris Jones. He seems to be healthy and will be a major factor in this game. The second, and in my opinion most likely, way the Chiefs will slow down the 49ers offense is by scoring points. Sounds simple right? The best way to eliminate Raheem Mostert and co. is to force San Francisco to beat you through the air. They were able to do that against the Saints late in the season, but I see that as an outlier.

Kansas City’s offense is a juggernaut. The sentiment that “you can’t stop them; you can only hope to contain them” is true against this team. San Francisco won’t be able to contain them.

I like the Chiefs to cover and the over to hit:

Kansas City 34 – San Francisco 23

Here are some points to consider when betting this game:

— Both teams are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS away from home this season.

Kansas City

— Won 8 consecutive games by an average of 16.1 points.

— 7-0 SU and ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

— The over has hit in their last 3 games.

San Francisco

— 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS when they finish with 3 or more sacks.

— 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games after consecutive ATS wins.

— The over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games.

Wild Card

— Since 2012, favorites are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in playoff games reffed by Bill Vinovich.

Score Predictor: San Francisco 23.2 – Kansas City 28.8 (Kansas City -1.5)

My Pick: Kansas City -1.5

Prop Bets

Now, my favorite part of the Super Bowl are the prop bets. I mean, why else would I care what color the Gatorade would be that gets poured on the coach at the end of the game? Below are some of my favorites and what the current odds are on DraftKings or Bovada:

Coin Toss Outcome

Heads -103, Tails -103

Tails never fails.                                       

First Gatorade color dumped on the winning coach

Red +150, Orange +300, Yellow/Green +350, Clear/Water +450, Blue +750, None +900, Purple +1200

Okay, tough one here. Do teams have Gatorade colors that match their team colors or ones that taste good? If you tell me red Gatorade tastes good, you’re lying to both of us. I’m going to lean Clear/Water or the best flavor, blue. Each will give you a nice payout.

Touchdown Scorer

George Kittle +110

You can pretty much place a bet on any player you want to score a touchdown, but I find the most value in Kittle. I believe the 49ers will be playing from behind so Jimmy Garoppolo will be throwing the ball a ton. That makes this play an easy one for me for one of Jimmy G’s favorite targets to get in the end zone.

How many times will they mention Katie Sowers being the first female coach in the Super Bowl?

Over 0.5 -500, Under 0.5 +300

I can’t see them not mentioning this because it is a big story. Take the Over.

Result of first coach’s challenge.

Play Stands -105, Play Overturned -135

I think we’ve heard the officials loud and clear this season. The play stands as called.

Will Andy Reid eat a cheeseburger before the end of the Super Bowl broadcast?

Yes +1200, No -7500

Please someone make this happen.

Will the game be tied again after 0-0?

Yes -200, No +150

I like this one and I lean No. I think the Chiefs will start hot and get a nice lead out of the gate.

The Super Bowl is a major spectacle, but it also represents the end. The end of the football season and the end of real betting season for me. I hope you all enjoyed this piece each week as much as I enjoy writing it.

Good luck this week in whatever bets you place. Hopefully we’re talking about the Ravens in this game next season!

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Drew Kordula

About Drew Kordula

I was born and raised in Baltimore. I'm a graduate of Eastern Tech and UMBC. Baltimore/Maryland sports have always been a huge part of my life. Whether it be going to University of Maryland Football games with my dad as a kid, or climbing to the top of Mt. M&T Bank Stadium for my seats in section 540 today. I'm a Joe Flacco apologist, Buck Showalter groupie, and Wild Bill Hagy disciple. I love writing about Baltimore sports because I know how passionate of a fan base we have here. Everyone has an opinion and I invite you to share yours on any of my blogs no matter if you agree or disagree. Feel free to follow me on twitter @DrewKordula More from Drew Kordula
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