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Week 5 NFL Picks

The Back Door Cover Week 5 NFL Picks

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My Picks

Last Week: 5-1

Overall: 13-9 (59.1%)

BDC Lock of the Week

Last Week: 1-0

Overall: 4-0 (100%)

Week 4 Whiffs

— Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me nearly every week, shame on me. I said last week that Aaron Rodgers had beaten me for the last time. So naturally I picked against them again in Week 4. Needless to say, I lost again.

Week 4 was a great week, as I went 5-1 for my picks here and 7-2 overall in the games I personally picked. The one that bit me big time was Arizona. I liked the Cardinals against the Panthers but they wet the bed in Carolina. That game cost me several parlay cards.

Here are the ATS Standings after Week 5:

As always, the most important thing you’ll read:

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Now, on to Week 5…

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns (+2, o/u 46.0)

This line surprises me a bit, especially after Cleveland’s win in Dallas last week. It opened with the Browns as 1-point favorites but has shifted all the way to Cleveland being 2-point underdogs as money came in on Indy early.

The Colts’ defense has allowed a league low 14 points per game this season, but they haven’t exactly faced a murderers row of teams to this point (Jacksonville, Minnesota, New York Jets, and Chicago) so that stat is a bit skewed. Cleveland is probably the best offense they’ve seen and will put up a few points.

I’m taking Cleveland here because I think they’ll get after Philip Rivers in this matchup. When he’s pressured, he’s shown the propensity to throw to the wrong color and that’s what will happen Sunday in Cleveland. I like Cleveland straight up.

Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in their last six games. The Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.

My Pick: Cleveland +2

Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Football Team (+7.5, o/u 45.0)

Surprisingly, early money came in on Washington at the 9.5 opening line, which has driven this game down to 7.5, where it currently sits.

So far this season, Jared Goff has a 6-2 TD-INT ratio while completing 72% of his passes. There’s nothing about Washington that would lead me to believe that Goff doesn’t continue his hot start. The Rams will put up 30+ points in Washington and with Kyle Allen getting the start under center, Washington just won’t be able to keep up.

Washington is 1-7 straight up and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games. The Rams are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against Washington.

My Pick: Los Angeles -7.5

Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers (+9, o/u 49.5)

As with pretty much any Miami game going forward, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s play will be the determining factor because he’s so bipolar. He has all the ability to put up huge numbers, but fails to do so consistently. With that said, the 49ers are just too banged up to cover nine points here in Week 5. Fitzpatrick will keep it close as he did in Seattle last week, but ultimately fall short in getting the ‘W’.

I also love the Under in this game.

Miami is 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games against the 49ers. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the AFC.

My Pick: Miami +9

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-13, o/u 51.0)

The Ravens have three wins this season so far. All three wins have been by at least two touchdowns. Although this is a divisional game, I’m not sure that trend stops in Week 5.

Cincinnati has been solid against the spread, going 4-0 to date. They’ve been able to keep games close, but I can’t foresee a scenario where that happens against the Ravens unless Lamar Jackson’s knee is really banged up. The Bengals have been keeping games close behind the play of Joe Burrow at quarterback. He’s been solid in his rookie year, but he hasn’t yet seen a defense quite like the Ravens.

Baltimore will be successful in confusing Burrow and force him into two interceptions on the way to a 31-13 win.

Cincinnati is 0-13-1 straight up in their last 14 road games. Baltimore is 7-2 straight up in their last nine home games.

My Pick: Baltimore -13

BDC Lock of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears (+3.5, o/u 44.5)

I tend to stay away from road teams on a Thursday night, but a team led by her majesty should be prepared more than any other. Tampa Bay is very banged up however. They could be without starting weapons Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and O.J. Howard, but it’s their defense that pushes me to them as my lock this week.

In Nick Foles’ first start of the season, he didn’t reach the end zone until late in the game. That won’t cut it against the Buccaneers who, even without several starters, will still put up plenty of points to cover 3.5 here.

I like Tampa to win by 6.

Chicago is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games as a favorite.

My Pick: Tampa Bay -3.5

Good luck in Week 5!

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About Drew Kordula

I was born and raised in Baltimore. I'm a graduate of Eastern Tech and UMBC. Baltimore/Maryland sports have always been a huge part of my life. Whether it be going to University of Maryland Football games with my dad as a kid, or climbing to the top of Mt. M&T Bank Stadium for my seats in section 540 today. I'm a Joe Flacco apologist, Buck Showalter groupie, and Wild Bill Hagy disciple. I love writing about Baltimore sports because I know how passionate of a fan base we have here. Everyone has an opinion and I invite you to share yours on any of my blogs no matter if you agree or disagree. Feel free to follow me on twitter @DrewKordula More from Drew Kordula
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