Last week, (like all weeks it seems) was one of highs and lows. Mike Davis continued his Christian McCaffery impression with 89 yards on the ground, another 60 thru the air on nine catches and a score for a total of 29.90 points. Darius Slayton had an 8-129-0 line for 23.90 points, although a weak offensive pass interference call on a TD prevented an even bigger day. Kareem Hunt and James Conner didn’t have great days but combined for a passable 33.60 points.
That was pretty much where the fun stopped. Daniel Jones’ TD-less ways continued and he didn’t give us any rushing production to supplement it (9.18 points). James Bradberry must have heard about my Amari Cooper play because he went and got on his Trinidad James (don’t believe me, just watch), holding to two catches for 23 yards (4.10 points).
Russell Gage was a pivot on the cheaper and more popular and minimum-priced Olamide Zaccheaus but if I’m keeping it real, he didn’t really have the upside at his price (3.60). Evan Engram scored in the red zone on an end around but had an uneventful day outside of that and had a TD on fake field goal called back.
The lineup ended up totaling 122.78 points. We did some good things process wise but also must clean up some things as well.
On to Week 6 we go.
QB Matt Stafford @ Jacksonville
Stafford will be popular so this play will require some differentiation as we go but the matchup and the circumstances just kept staring me in the face. This Jaguars defense got Deshaun Watson off the schneid last week, giving up 359 passing yards and 3 TD after a slow start by the Texans offense.
Jacksonville has given up the 10th most completions in the league, the 4th most TD passes and their adjusted sack rate of 3.4% is the 2nd worst in the NFL per football outsiders.
With Kenny Golladay back in the fold and coming off a week of rest, I like Stafford’s chances of putting together his 1st 300-yard game of the season while hitting pay dirt a few times.
DraftKings salary: 6,300
RB Aaron Jones @ Tampa Bay
Using Jones here to pivot off what will likely be an extremely popular Alexander Mattison. I’ll have plenty of Mattison myself but for the sake of lower exposure I like Aaron Jones a lot. His price and the Bucs’ stout run defense (2.5 yards per carry allowed to RB’s) will be enough to keep people off him but he’s not without appeal in this spot.
As good as Bucs are defending the run, their LBs are susceptible in coverage. They have given up the 6th most targets and the 4th most catches to RBs. Jones is very involved in the passing game and not in just the check down variety. He’s shown the ability to run routes down the field to get chunk gains. Jones is also very capable of overcoming tough sledding in the run game by breaking off a long run.
The Packers are tied for the 5th highest implied team total of the week at 28 points. A starting RB in this situation as involved as Jones is as a runner and receiver is #goals. Don’t let a little perceived resistance block your blessings.
DraftKings salary: 7,600
RB Myles Gaskin vs. New York (Jets)
You know I love my home favorite RBs. Gaskin has been a surprise lead-ish back for the Dolphins but has performed fairly well in that role. He gets a good matchup here as only two teams have given up more fantasy points to RBs than the punchless Jets.
Another advantageous development for Gaskin was the healthy scratch of Jordan Howard last week. In Weeks 1 thru 3, Howard banged in three goal line TD’s…effectively capping Gaskin’s upside.
With Howard out last week, Gaskin scored from one yard out and kept his plus passing game involvement with five catches for 34 yards on five targets.
If the Dolphins jump out to a lead again this week as I suspect, Gaskin could flirt with his season high 27 touches and with Jordan Howard out of his way he’s a threat to score multiple TDs.
DraftKings salary: 5,400
WR Kenny Golladay @ Jacksonville
Golladay hasn’t had a true splash game since his return from injury but he has been productive. He has four red zone targets and two TD catches in his two games this season. There is no better time than the present for that big game as the Jaguars have given up the 9th most fantasy points to WR’s and could be without standout rookie CB CJ Henderson.
This play is pretty straightforward. For Matt Stafford to give us a slate winning performance it’s likely to be heavily influenced by Golladay.
DraftKings salary: 6,200
WR Laviska Shenault vs. Detroit
Bringing it back with uber talented rookie. Shenault has gone from gadget-ish player too talented to keep off the field to legit starting slot receiver in the matter of a few weeks. He’s run 30+ routes and has drawn at least six targets in each of the last three games.
The Lions placed their starting slot corner Justin Coleman on IR after Week 1 and with D.J. Chark looking questionable to suit up on Sunday, Shenault should be freed up for a few more looks, especially if the game script follows the path we’re projecting here.
This is a solid play on projected volume but it’s his game breaking open field ability that makes him one of the most appealing wide receiver options this week.
DraftKings salary: 5,200
WR Keelan Cole vs. Detroit
The more the merrier! Shenault isn’t the only one who would benefit from the absence of Chark and a negative game script. In the same three-game span, Cole has run 40+ routes and drawn 5+ targets in each of the last three games. He had six targets, a season high 102 air yards and a TD catch last week.
Minshew has spread out his targets this season, much to the chagrin of people that drafted Chark but it certainly helps us this week.
DraftKings salary: 4,900
TE T.J. Hockenson @ Jacksonville
You guessed it! Right back to this game. The #2 role in this passing game seems to be open for the taking for Hockenson. Marvin Jones isn’t nearly as involved this year as he’s been in previous years and Danny Amendola’s snap share is down 10% percent from last season.
Hockenson on the other hand has seen his snap share grow since week one and has red zone targets in each of the last two games including two in Week 4, one in which he converted for a short TD.
The matchup is a good one too. The Jags have given up the 8th most points to TEs in the NFL. Joe Schobert hasn’t been very good in coverage and Myles Jack’s injury could be cause for longer term concern as the team acquired Kamalei Correa from the Titans today.
I’m not crazy about his price but he’s clearly the best double stack option for this offense and he does have a pathway to hit here.
DraftKings salary: 5,300
Flex Jamison Crowder @Miami
So if we’re projecting a Myles Gaskin party we have to run it back with someone…and with the Jets the choices are slim. Like real slim.
Crowder is the only reliable vehicle to production for this New York offense so regardless how this game goes he’s pretty locked in for eight to 10 targets. In his three games played this season he’s had at least 10 targets in each of them. He’s also gone over 100 yards receiving in all of them and has scored two TDs.
Until the Jets put Gase…and Jet fans out of their misery…Crowder should be a busy man on Sundays.
DraftKings salary: 6,100
Defense Vikings Def vs. Atlanta
I’m back in the bargain bin this week. There’s a lot to be concerned about in Minnesota these days but the pass rush is starting to come along. They’ve climbed up to 13th in adjusted sack rate after bringing down Russell Wilson four times last week.
The Falcons have been fine in pass protection, but they throw a lot and figure to be playing from behind in this one. Matt Ryan has looked a little more rattled in recent weeks. Could a multi-turnover game be on the horizon?
I may not be able to play Alexander Mattison in this lineup but I could still find a way to leverage a potential strong game from him. The more drop backs he can force the better odds we have at sacks and turnovers and hopefully a defensive TD.
DraftKings salary: 2,300