As per usual I was forced to make a lineup change last week…
With DJ Chark being suprisingly active i'm making the simple swap of AJ Brown for Keelan Cole. Will make the lineup less unique and less correlated but AJB is a huge value.
— window seat on the spaceship (@Carey1313) October 18, 2020
Unfortunately, we needed a complete facelift as opposed to just the one pivot. Keelan Cole and A.J. Brown ended up being a wash (23.3 to 22.6)….Now if only I would have switched out the right Jags receiver as Laviska Shenault had a chilly 3-10-0 line.
The Lions stack of Stafford-Gollday-Hockenson combined for 40.52 points, watching Lions RBs go for three TDs. On Sunday I did hedge in a couple other lineups and played Adrian Peterson in case things shifted in this direction….So of course, D’Andre Swift went over 100 yards and scored two of the three TD.
Nobody in the rest of the lineup bombed, but it wasn’t near enough to cash out, finishing with 108.72 points. We won’t hang our heads though! On to Week 7.
QB Deshaun Watson vs. Green Bay
Freed from the shackles of Bill O’Brien, the Texans passing offense has looked better in nearly every sense. Watson has been sacked three times in the past two games, compared to 16 in the first four games. They’ve been better against the blitz, have utilized more play action and have pushed the ball downfield more often.
According to Aaron Reiss, who covers the Texans for the Athletic, Watson ranks 1st among all QBs in net yards per attempt, yards per completion and net yards per drop back from Week 3 to present…all features that will put him near the top of the radar in tournaments on a weekly basis.
This week he gets the Packers, fresh off a 38-10 drubbing at the hands of the Bucs.
While the Packers have given up the 7th fewest points per game to the position, they’ve enjoyed a bit of schedule fortune as pointed out by PFF’s Ian Hartiz.
They got the Vikings before Justin Jefferson was freed. The Lions without Golladay, The Saints without Michael Thomas, and Julio Jones left with an injury 15 snaps into the game when they played the Falcons.
The Packers do have the NFL’s 6th highest adjusted sack rate per football outsiders and a talented secondary, but the Texans defensive struggles breeding a tasty game environment outweighs those concerns.
DraftKings salary: 6,800
RB Aaron Jones @ Houston
Speaking of the Texans defensive struggles…
Jones might’ve struggled versus a top tier, Todd Bowles led Bucs defense but this week will not resemble that at all. The Texans give up a league worst 5.4 yards per carry, the most rushing TD’s to the position and have the 3rd most missed tackles in the NFL.
I would keep going but I don’t think I need to, be kind to yourself and play Aaron Jones this week.
DraftKings salary: 7,200
RB Joshua Kelley @ Jacksonville
Our first two plays have been guys who will be pretty popular so I’m going a little off grid here. The Chargers enter this game as 7.5-point favorites versus a struggling Jaguars team that has been rocked by RBs in their own right. Jacksonville has given up 4.6 yards per carry and 9 total TD to RBs this season.
Justin Jackson will be the more popular play here as he seemed to seize a larger share of the workload in this backfield in their last game but Kelley will remain plenty involved, is not a zero in the passing game and is the preferred goal line back and between-the-tackles hammer.
In a game I expect the Chargers to control, I like the idea of pivoting to the less popular back with higher odds of multiple TDs and clock-killing work. Now admittedly I could be being a bit stubborn here so with their price points being so close (Justin Jackson is 4,900) you could easily play this same lineup and swap in Jackson. I’ll be playing this lineup with each guy. Consider this a bonus 😊
DraftKings salary: 5,100
WR D.J. Chark @ Los Angeles (Chargers)
I don’t how much Chark likes Gardner Minshew right now but Minshew most definitely likes him. Playing from behind majority of the game, he targeted Chark a whopping 14 times.
My Joshua Kelley play reaches its peak if the same script plays out this week so this is my double down.
The Chargers have a talented pass defense and have fared very well by most metrics this season but they also aren’t too far removed from giving up five TD to Tom Brady and the Bucs in Week 4.
Even in a tough matchup the volume should be there for Chark to meet this modest price and he’s talented enough to turn another double-digit target game into fireworks.
DraftKings salary: 5,500
WR Will Fuller vs. Green Bay
Fuller has scored a TD in each of the last four games and figures to remain busy in this one. With a 56.5 point total this game has shootout written all over it.
Fuller has 296 air yards in the two games since Bill O’Brien was fired and gets targeted on all levels of the field. Standout corner Jaire Alexander will certainly offer resistance but Fuller’s weekly upside is too massive to get away from.
DraftKings salary: 6,800
WR Brandin Cooks vs. Green Bay
Cooks has maybe benefited the most of anyone in Houston the last two weeks. He’s turned 21 targets into a 17-229-2 line. He’s made plays down the field, in the short passing game and has had a few schemed touch opportunities as well, strengthening his floor.
Packers #2 corner Kevin King had a limited practice after missing last week’s game with a quad injury. Another absence would boost Cooks’ prospects but either way it’s game environment over everything for me.
Cooks’ salary is too cheap for his current role in Houston’s offense. Part of the reason I feel comfortable playing him and Fuller together.
DraftKings salary: 5,200
TE Robert Tonyan @ Houston
In order for my Texans double stack to really hit I probably need to add a little more reinforcement to my Aaron Jones play. Enter” Bobby” Tonyan. He had a non-descript game along with the rest of the Packers offense last week but he’s in great position to bounce back.
Despite leaving the game for a bit with an injury he still ran a season high 25 routes last week. The matchup is a good one as the Texans give up the 7th most points per game to tight ends, get targeted by tight ends at the league’s 7th highest rate and they lost starting middle linebacker Benardrick McKinney to a season ending injury.
Tonyan didn’t practice Wednesday so keep an eye on my twitter feed @Carey1313 for pivots if he doesn’t play.
DraftKings salary: 4,600
Flex Robby Anderson @ New Orleans
After receiving double-digit targets in three of the last five games, Anderson was held to five last week versus a strong Bears defense. Last season’s target hog D.J. Moore turned back the clock with 11 looks. My thought process here is that people shy away from Anderson after what is more likely an outlier game versus a good defense and miss out on this great opportunity in New Orleans.
The Saints are slated to have Michael Thomas back in the lineup and saw Tre’Quan Smith and Emmanuel Sanders take strides in this offense in his absence. With that three-wide set, Alvin Kamara in the backfield and a healthy Jared Cook at tight end, I like their chances of overwhelming this young Panthers defense.
This would push Anderson right back into that double-digit target territory versus a New Orleans pass defense that while talented has shown some vulnerability. They’ve given up the 2nd most passing TDs and the 4th highest passer rating.
Like Will Fuller, Anderson has a ceiling unlike many receivers in the league due to long speed and theatrics at the catch point but the versatility he’s shown sans Adam Gase (stop me if you’ve heard that before) has done wonders for his floor.
I’ve leaned heavily towards RB’s in the flex but i’m trying to be more open minded and make sure I’m getting as much upside as I can possibly cram into my lineups. Anderson offers plenty.
DraftKings salary: 6,000
Defense Washington Football Team vs. Dallas
If all your friends jump off a bridge are you gonna do it? Why yes, I will. The WFT will be extremely popular this week and you can consider me a wave rider. You won’t see many bigger mismatches all year than Washington defensive line matched up with Dallas’ battered and bruised offensive line.
While i think Andy Dalton will have much better days this season than he did in his Cowboy debut we also know how turnover prone he can be.
I don’t expect Dallas slow their pace too much nor go in a shell and try to run it 40 times thus giving Washington their opportunities to pin their ears back and get to the QB. This play isn’t a lock by any means but if it doesn’t hit at least we won’t be alone.
DraftKings salary: 2,500