Week 7 NFL Picks

The Back Door Cover Week 7 NFL Picks

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My Picks

Last Week: 2-3

Overall: 19-13 (59.3%)

BDC Lock of the Week

Last Week: 1-0

Overall: 5-1 (83.3%)

Week 6 Whiffs

Having kids means missing football games at times because “genius” organizers schedule games during NFL Sundays. The nerve. That said, when we got to my daughter’s game on Sunday, the Ravens were up  (and covering) comfortably with four minutes left, 30-14. I stopped looking at my phone thinking I had it in the bag. Then I hear an Eagles fan behind me say “Holy <insert expletive here> they can tie this thing!” I quickly scrambled to my phone to see the Ravens hold off the Eagles for the win, but fail to cover in a way I didn’t think possible 15 minutes prior.

Early in the week I loved the Rams. I thought they were humming and San Francisco was reeling. Being a contrarian, seeing the masses hop on San Fran also made me feel a bit confident. As the weekend went on, EVERYBODY seemed to be on the 49ers and I began to get a bit worried. They were right and I was wrong.

Here are the ATS Standings after Week 6:

 

As always, the most important thing you’ll read:

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Onto Week 7.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Football Team (-1, o/u 46.0)

Dallas opened as three-point favorites, but after their performance on Monday night, have fallen to one-point dogs in Washington this week. Line moves like that, that are clearly reactionary, always get my attention.

The Cowboys are banged up on the offensive line which could be the determining factor in this game, but I can’t ignore the talent on the rest of their roster and how it matches up with Washington. The Cowboys are simply the better team and taking them at essentially a pick-em seems like a no-brainer.

The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six games. Washington is 2-13 straight up in their last 15 homes games.

My Pick: Dallas +1

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans (-1.5, o/u 50.5)

It sickens me to say this, but Pittsburgh has been one of the most impressive teams early this season. Their defense is back to being one of the top units in the league and with Ben Roethlisberger back under center, their offense hasn’t been far behind.

I love Pittsburgh in this game for two reason. First, the Titans have given up 30 points in three of their last four games. And second, the Titans will be without left tackle Taylor Lewan who is out for the season. The Steelers love to get after the quarterback and will take advantage of Lewan being sidelined and limit Derrick Henry. Without Henry’s numbers, Ryan Tannehill will turn the ball over at least once and the Steelers will roll.

Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games as an underdog. The Steelers rank 2nd in my ATS rankings with a 10 point average point differential on the road.

My Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, o/u 55.5)

The Falcons looked like a different team with Julio Jones back in the lineup this past week. He ended up with 137 yards and two touchdowns in the Falcons win. I look for the tandem of Jones and Calvin Ridley to have another monster game, but the real reason I’m high on Atlanta this week is their willingness to stick to the run with Todd Gurley who had 20 carries last week even though he wasn’t very successful (47 yards). This week they get the 29th ranked rush defense so Gurley will be a big player in daily fantasy.

I like Atlanta 31-24.

Detroit is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite.

My Pick: Atlanta -2.5

Green Bay Packers vs. Houston Texans (+3.5, o/u 57.0)

I’ve stayed way from the Packers for a few weeks now after being burned earlier in the season. I’m back in the saddle this week though.

I’ve been saying all season that Green Bay just isn’t as good as they’ve been playing. I’m not sure if this past week was my vindication or if it was just a blip for the Packers. Since I’m prideful, I’m going to go with it being my vindication and say they’re poised to take a step back as we continue to the second half of the season.

Houston hasn’t looked great, but they’ve looked better over the past few weeks and I think that will continue against Green Bay. I like Houston to cover, but just barely. Green Bay wins 27-24.

Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in games after an ATS loss. Houston is 0-6 straight up and ATS in their last six games as an underdog.

My Pick: Houston +3.5

BDC Lock of the Week

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+3, o/u 50.0)

Although the Bengals are only 1-4-1, they have been covering machines in 2020 leading the NFL with a 5-1 ATS record. Their lone defeat came at the hands of another division rival in Baltimore who made Joe Burrow look like the rookie he is.

The Browns top ranked rush offense (169.5 yards per game) will dominate the ground game against a Bengals team that ranks 27th against run. Cleveland will also be able to get after Burrow in the same way the Ravens did and force him into several mistakes. I’d take Cleveland up to a touchdown, but luckily I don’t have to. Browns 30-17.

The Browns are 1-8 straight up and ATS in their last nine road games. Cincinnati is 1-12 straight up in their last 13 divisional games.

My Pick: Cleveland -3

My favorite parlay this week is a three-teamer between Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta. I missed my parlay big time last week so let’s hope we have better luck this week.

Good luck in Week 7!

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Drew Kordula

About Drew Kordula

I was born and raised in Baltimore. I'm a graduate of Eastern Tech and UMBC. Baltimore/Maryland sports have always been a huge part of my life. Whether it be going to University of Maryland Football games with my dad as a kid, or climbing to the top of Mt. M&T Bank Stadium for my seats in section 540 today. I'm a Joe Flacco apologist, Buck Showalter groupie, and Wild Bill Hagy disciple. I love writing about Baltimore sports because I know how passionate of a fan base we have here. Everyone has an opinion and I invite you to share yours on any of my blogs no matter if you agree or disagree. Feel free to follow me on twitter @DrewKordula More from Drew Kordula
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