Last Week: 1-3-1
Overall: 20-16-1 (55.6%)
BDC Lock of the Week
Last Week: 0-0-1
Overall: 5-1-1 (83.3%)
Week 7 Whiffs
- So I didn’t completely whiff on my lock and I was a missed last-second PAT away from hitting, but it didn’t play out as I expected. I thought Cleveland would be able to get after Joe Burrow and force him into mistakes as the Ravens did. I was wrong and the game was a lot closer than I expected.
- When Todd Gurley stumbled into the end zone, I laughed because I thought I had just covered in the most comical way possible. A player trying to go down to end the game short of the goal line, accidentally rolls in with his momentum putting me in the money. THEN, the Falcons let the Lions drive the length of the field and score at the final whistle. Poetic justice I guess.
- Dallas sucks.
The early games in Week 7 made me look silly. There were so many close calls that just didn’t fall my way, but I did end up hitting all of the late games through Monday night which more than made up for my early shortcomings.
Here are the ATS Standings after Week 7:
As always, the most important thing you’ll read:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Here’s hoping for better luck in Week 8.
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5, o/u 53.5)
The Titans have Derrick Henry. The Bengals have a hard time stopping the run. I could just leave that analysis there, but I’ll go on.
Burrow, while not leading the Bengals to many true victories, has led Cincinnati to a 5-1-1 ATS mark to start the season as they sit in 3rd in my ATS rankings. That’s not bad for a rookie. At home, they’ve been even better with a positive 0.7 average point differential in their three home games.
That said, I just can’t see them keeping it within a touchdown against a good Titans team who will run the ball down their throats. People will also be hammering the over here, but I actually like the under a bit.
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. The Bengals are 3-21-1 straight up in their last 25 games.
My Pick: Tennessee -5.5
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5, o/u 54.5)
The weekly “Who are they?” battle. Both teams have shown flashes of being extremely solid but also lack the consistency to put any long stretches of good football together.
My first thought after digesting the Browns game last week was, “is OBJ a hindrance to Baker Mayfield’s progression?” It sure looked like it as Mayfield ended Week 7 with five touchdown passes and walked away as the AFC Offensive player of the week. OBJ is now out for the season with a torn ACL so we’ll get a true sense of what effect he had in the coming weeks.
I do think in this matchup that Khalil Mack and co. will be able to dial up some pressure and make Mayfield look pedestrian. In what I think will be a close game as the line suggests, I like Vegas to cover the points.
The Raiders are 5-17 straight up in their last 22 road games. Cleveland is 7-1 straight up in their last eight home games.
My Pick: Las Vegas +2.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3, o/u 54.0)
I really don’t like to pick divisional matchups all that often, but when an opportunity presents itself, I have to pounce.
This line would have been higher in favor of the Seahawks, I believe, had last week not happened. Seattle blew a lead against the Cardinals and the 49ers routed the Patriots.
As I do most weeks, I love playing good teams coming off a loss, and we have two of those this week in Tennessee and Seattle. The Seahawks have owned the 49ers ATS. In their last 18 matchups, Seattle is 14-4 ATS. That bodes well for a bounce back in Week 8 after their first loss of the season. I like Seattle to cover 30-24.
Seattle is 11-2 straight up in their last 13 games against the 49ers. San Francisco is 10-2 straight up in their last 12 road games.
My Pick: Seattle -3
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-4, o/u 46.5)
Sometimes you need to take a step back and think about why Vegas has the line at a certain number. They play with the minds of bettors to get them to bet certain ways and this game appears to be one of those games.
If you’ve watched either one of these teams through seven weeks, no way would you think the Ravens would have opened up as 5.5-point favorites. The Steelers are playing like one of the best teams in football and the Ravens have stumbled at times. That eye-ball test would lead most bettors to easily take Pittsburgh here which is why the number has been driven down to -4 where it sits today.
I love the Ravens in this spot for several reasons. First, with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue, they’ll be able to apply pressure to Ben Roethlisberger without having to blitz as much. This will allow their extremely solid secondary to have extra bodies to cover receivers down field. Look for several sacks this week. Second, and probably most important, the Ravens are coming off their bye. This can’t be overstated. Under John Harbaugh the Ravens have excelled coming off their bye. They’ve made necessary adjustments and have come out stronger than they were prior. I expect that to continue this week as Greg Roman gets the offense back on the right track and the defense continues to be solid.
The Ravens are 9-3 ATS coming out of a bye. Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games as an underdog. The dog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five matchups between these two teams.
My Pick: Baltimore -4
BDC Lock of the Week
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (+4, o/u 43.5)
This game sits as my lock of the week solely because of how bad Chicago has looked on the offensive side of the ball.
The Saints’ defense ranks 7th in the NFL in total defense, but ranks 24th in scoring defense. They’ll get to lower the latter a bit this week. Ultimately, New Orleans will score at a rate that the Bears just won’t be able to keep up with here in Week 8. I like the Saints by a touchdown.
New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The Bears are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games.
My Pick: New Orleans -4
I’ll be honest, I struggled to pick five games I liked this week, but these are the lucky ones that made the cut. I do love the Ravens, Titans, and Saints, but not sure how confident in a parlay of the three I would be. I’m hoping to go 2-1 on those three games and come out on top of a light week for me.
Good luck in Week 8!