As you’re probably used to by now, I made some pivots:
Multiple lineup pivots due to the heavy winds in the CLE/LV game…
Out: Carr, Ruggs, Waller, Tee Higgins, Landry
In: Herbert, Keenan Allen, Harrison Bryant, Swift, Aiyuk
— window seat on the spaceship (@Carey1313) November 1, 2020
The lineup had its share of high points. Tyreek Hill went for 98 yards receiving and scored two TD (25.80 pts). Justin Herbert didn’t blow up per se but continued his strong play (23.22 pts) while Keenan Allen kept his voluminous ways going with a 9-67-1 line (21.70 pts).
With all the injuries, Brandon Aiyuk probably felt *insert fresh prince alone in living room gif* but he didn’t let that stop him from racking up eight catches for 91 yards and a TD. The Dolphins defense went crazy with 2 TD, including a return score.
The lows though? ☹ I mostly faded the passing games in the Raiders-Browns game due to heavy winds, but I liked the idea of rostering Harrison Bryant. He was cheap at 3200, coming off a big game, and figured to have more work funneled his way as an underneath target with the deep passing game being less viable. Bryant followed up his breakout performance with a 3-25-0 line and a lost fumble (4.50 pts).
For correlation sake my follow up move probably should have been to pivot from Kareem Hunt to Josh Jacobs. I decided against it as I really liked Hunt’s opportunity and expected more passing game involvement as well because of the weather. Hunt ended up with 73 TD-less total yards with only seven of them coming thru the air on two receptions (9.30 pts). For comparison’s sake, Jacobs had 128 rushing yards on the ground but didn’t get into the end zone and had 0 catches on one target.
The rookie RB duo of Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift both got sniped by teammates for volume and TDs…a receiving TD for Kerryon Johnson? Seriously? Sorry, I just got annoyed all over again. The rooks combined for 10.40 fantasy points, pushing the total to 141.02.
We had a few disappointments for sure, but I think we’re on the verge of something special. On to Week 9.
QB Josh Allen vs. Seattle
Allen started the season going over 30 DraftKings points in each of his first three games, but he’s cooled since, going over 20 in just two of the last five. Some of the struggle has been game environment driven but that’s not likely to be an issue this week versus the Seahawks.
With Russ doing all the cooking, Seattle leads the league in points per game (34.3) and yards per play. Points will be required and looking at this Seahawks defense, points will be attainable.
On a per-game basis, no team has given up more points than the Seahawks. More specific to this matchup, Seattle has given up the 3rd most rushing attempts and most rushing TDs to QBs. Allen has at least eight rushing attempts in each of the last three games.
Factor in their 28th ranked adjusted sack rate and banged up secondary and this is the perfect game to kick off a resurgence of nuclear Josh Allen. He has as high an upside as any QB on the slate this week.
DraftKings salary: 7,000
RB Derrick Henry vs. Chicago
I haven’t been great recently at picking the Derrick Henry blow-up games but there might not be a better week to try. Dalvin Cook extended his ownership stake in the Packers defense with four TD last week, ensuring his popularity this week.
Henry was in a cozy fantasy situation last week and while 112 rushing yards and a TD is nothing to sneeze at (what the hell does that even mean?)…it’s not the type of game that will satisfy us at his price point considering his minimal involvement in the passing game.
The Bears have a pretty formidable pass defense, but their run defense is average by most metrics. Here’s to hoping we see Henry stiff-arm someone into Week 10 on his way to a long TD run…or three.
DraftKings salary: 7,900
RB Justin Jackson vs. Las Vegas
Jackson gets the great Raiders matchup we were chasing last week with Kareem Hunt. I’ve been more on rookie Joshua Kelley in this Chargers backfield, but he fell out of favor last week while Jackson turned 20 touches into 142 total yards.
Troymaine Pope’s involvement last week is a little worrisome and Kelley could always hold on to his goal-line role, but Jackson looks to have maybe separated himself from the group.
The matchup is a good one and the game has a 52.5 point total, making Jackson one of the most attractive players at his price point…regardless of position.
DraftKings salary: 4,900
WR Stefon Diggs vs. Seattle
I had questions about just how viable Diggs would be in Buffalo on a weekly basis, but Brian Daboll has silenced those emphatically. In this spread offense built around empowering Josh Allen’s playmaking, he has peppered Diggs with targets to the tune of nearly 10 per game.
Potentially down their best corner and already giving up the most points in the league to wide receivers…Seattle doesn’t stand much of a chance at stopping Diggs. If we’re going to get another ceiling game from Josh Allen, the player most likely to influence that outside of him is Diggs.
DraftKings salary: 7,400
WR Tyler Lockett @ Buffalo
DK or Lockett? Lockett or DK? I’ve thought about a coin flip or simply playing the opposite person after a spiked week, but the matchup is so pronounced in this one that the decision is easier to come to. DK Metcalf figures to see a ton of standout boundary corner Tre’Davious White while Lockett will face off with beatable slot corner Taron Johnson.
Honestly, you could play both…the Bills pass defense has not been as good as we’re accustomed to. They’ve been generally fine versus wide receivers, but they are middle of the pack in QB hits and their passing rating allowed is 10th worst in the NFL.
Since we don’t have the bread to play both we’ll go with Lockett since he has the more advantageous matchup.
DraftKings salary: 6,800
WR Darnell Mooney @ Tennessee
So when Derrick Henry goes off he’ll push volume to the Bears passing game. Allen Robinson will be a staple in my DraftKings player pool this week but here we’re a little fiscally challenged.
Mooney has operated as the Bears WR2 for the majority of the season, but his opportunity could get even larger this week. Anthony Miller gobbled up 11 targets on Sunday but is starting the week on the injury report. Javon Wims lost his damn mind and got suspended for 2 games and Ted Ginn Jr. was just released.
Nick Foles has mostly missed on opportunities to connect with Mooney on big plays but if he can mix in some of those higher percentage looks Miller potentially leaves behind with his potential for big plays, we could be cashing considering his price point.
DraftKings salary: 3,900
TE Hayden Hurst vs. Denver
We were a little presumptuous expecting Hurst to jump right into the 2019 Austin Hooper role but even though he hasn’t reached those levels he’s had solid involvement. It’s pretty difficult to carve out a huge piece of the pie when you share the field with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley but Hurst is coming off back to back seven-target games and it seems likely he won’t have to contend with Ridley this week.
The matchup isn’t a great one but it’s not prohibitive. The Broncos have been pretty good against tight ends this year, but volume is volume. With the rate at which the Falcons throw the ball Hurst could flirt with 10 targets. On a slate that lacks obvious value at tight end, getting one in a good offense at this price is very appealing this week with the top options being so much more expensive.
DraftKings salary: 4,100
Flex Jerry Jeudy @ Atlanta
The correlation continues. Jeudy had his highest target and yardage total of the season to go with a whopping 162 air yards last week versus the Chargers. The matchup is a good one as the Falcons give up the 5th most DraftKings points per game to wide receivers and just sprung Panthers slot receiver Curtis Samuel free for two TDs.
If Tim Patrick can’t get his hamstring together in time for this one, Jeudy will only have Noah Fant to contend with for the top end targets in the Broncos offense. As four-point road favorites playing against a Falcons team that loves to jump out to leads…and give them away, I could easily see this one going over the 49.5 projected total. Making for a nice game environment for Jeudy to continue his ascension.
DraftKings salary: 4,700
Defense Texans Def @ Jacksonville
The Texans are a 6.5-point favorite going up against a rookie 6th round QB in his first career start. Houston has the league’s 11th highest adjusted sack rate while the Jags offensive line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate. Some decisions are just easy.
DraftKings salary: 3,100