Much like the week before, last week’s lineup had some clear wins and some clear losses. Josh Allen got back to his nuclear ways with 415 passing yards, three passing TDs and one rushing score (39 DK points). Stefon Diggs chipped in his fair share to the party with a 9-118-0 line (23.80 DK points).
The Jerry Jeudy-Hayden Hurst game stack was a successful one. Both had seven catches and they combined for 41.70 DK points. Darnell Mooney posted a 5-43-0 line (9.30 DK points) which isn’t great but at 3,900 we could have certainly done worse (trust me, I did so in other lineups). We just needed the other piece of that game stack to hit big…
My inability to pick the Derrick Henry explosion games continued as he went for a pedestrian 68 yards on 21 carries with no TDs and no catches (6.80 DK points). The Texans defense let Jake Luton get loose and ended up with just 4 DK points.
If the Bills-Seahawks game was an actual party, Allen and SDiggs brought a nice catered tray of wings…Tyler Lockett brought the store brand sodas that nobody drinks (8 DK points).
But without question the most disappointing play of this lineup was Justin Jackson. Jackson hurt his knee on the first play of the game, he tried to give it a go and came back for one snap before being pulled right back out of the game. That effectively ended any pursuit this lineup had of cashing in any format with a 132.60 total score.
I felt really good about the process, luck just wasn’t on our side this time. That break is coming though.
On to Week 10.
QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. Los Angeles (Chargers)
Tua followed up a nondescript debut with a successful 2nd start for the Dolphins. Without the huge cushion the Dolphins defense provided in his first start, he was forced to make plays and he did just that. He was 20-28 for 248 passing yards and two TDs, adding another 35 yards on the ground on seven carries. Not standout numbers but watching the game, Tua showed flashes of high-level playmaking.
He now gets a home date versus another pace-up team in the Chargers who have given up at least 30 points in each of their last five games. Their defense ranks 20th in adjusted sack rate per football outsiders and have a chance of being without Joey Bosa again this week. They also rank 25th in interception percentage despite faring well in a lot of different pass defense metrics.
The chances of a clean-ish pocket and minimal forced mistakes look good for Tua. I like what that means from a fantasy production standpoint.
DraftKings salary: 5,600
RB Aaron Jones vs. Jacksonville
In his first game back from injury, Jones had 15 carries and five catches for a total of 79 yards. Not groundbreaking numbers but it was nice to see him get a healthy number of touches in a game were there were rumblings that he would be eased back into action.
This week he gets a sweet spot going up against a Jaguars defense that is bottom 10 in rushing TDs and receiving yards allowed to RBs.
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams could, and most likely will, cook, but with Jacksonville’s 31st ranked scoring defense. There is enough food for everybody to eat.
DraftKings salary: 7,100
RB Miles Sanders @ New York (Giants)
Sanders is on track to return this week after a three-week absence. He opened the season with one of the more secure workloads in the NFL, averaging 14 carries and five targets per game.
Sanders ripped off 74 yard runs in each of the last two games, inflating his numbers versus the top tier defenses of the Steelers and Ravens but that speaks to his rare game breaking ability.
He’ll face a formidable Giants run defense. They’ve held teams to 3.7 yards per carry and are one of only seven teams holding opponents under 100 yards per game.
They are still vulnerable though. Only the Panthers have given up more catches to the RB position. Despite their strong run D numbers, the Giants give up 10th most DK points per game to RBs.
I love Sanders’ ceiling at this price point and with him returning from injury people may be a bit scared off until they see where his workload stands…giving us a potential edge.
DraftKings salary: 6,400
WR Keenan Allen @ Miami
There isn’t a lot we can set our clocks to in 2020 but if Keenan Allen plays a complete game with Justin Herbert the result will be at least 10 targets. He’s also scored a TD in three of his last four games. The Dolphins do sport a strong and well-coached pass defense with talented outside corners so this won’t be a walk in the park but Nik Needham, who is solid in his own right will be punching above his weight class (like many others) facing up with Allen in the slot.
Allen is still priced in a range that makes him a bit of a bargain in comparison to his production. He should be a near staple in lineups but makes even more sense in this one due to the correlation with Tua.
DraftKings salary: 7,100
WR Cooper Kupp vs. Seattle
My concern with Kupp coming into the season was his snap share. Last year, as the season progressed, he lost snaps in two-wide sets, a trend that capped his upside. This year he’s played more total snaps than any receiver on the team and his 88.3% snap share is 2nd only to Robert Woods’ hefty 90.6% share.
Before their Week 9 bye, Kupp was targeted an NFL season high 21 times versus the Dolphins, a game they trailed throughout. He turned that into a 11-110-0 line. In their only other clear negative game script game vs. the Bills in Week 3 he turned in a 9-107-1 line on 10 targets.
There are pretty good odds that the Rams could be staring at another negative game script trying to chase this high-flying Seahawks offense, while this Seattle defense is ripe for the picking. Not only do they give up the most points to wide receivers in the league, but they allow a mind blowing 15 more DK points per game than the 2nd worst team.
Kupp will be popular this week I suspect but for good reason, I’ll gladly ride the wave.
DraftKings salary: 6,900
WR DeVante Parker vs. Los Angeles (Chargers)
You knew a stacking partner for Tua was coming and there shouldn’t have been much of a question of who it would be. Parker seems to be an early favorite of Tua, receiving targets on seven of his 28 attempts last week.
With Preston Williams placed on IR and Isiah Ford traded to the Patriots, it should be a busy day for DeVante. The Chargers have fared pretty well versus wide receivers by many metrics, but the volume should be there and as I pointed out in my reasoning for rostering Tua, the Chargers have given up plenty of points and play fast. Factors that make Parker a solid value at his price.
DraftKings salary: 5,000
TE Tyler Eifert @ Green Bay
Digging into the bargain bin this week at tight end. Eifert returned to action last week by playing 38 snaps, the most by any Jags tight end. He ran 21 routes and turned in a 4-48-0 line on five targets.
The correlation with Aaron Jones gives this one a boost for me. I’d be shocked if the Jags aren’t playing well from behind in this one…giving Eifert a sneaky shot at eight targets in this one which is a bargain at this price. Even if he doesn’t, we aren’t too pressed at his near minimum salary.
DraftKings salary: 2,700
Flex Tyler Lockett @ Los Angeles (Rams)
Yep, I’m coming right back to him. Statistically the matchup isn’t necessarily a good one. The Rams give up the 2nd fewest DK points per game to wide receivers this season.
I’m betting on talent with this play. This price is just way too cheap for a player of Lockett’s ceiling and if Kupp is going to be pushed to a high-volume game we needed to get someone in this lineup that would do the shoving.
You could also run a variation of this lineup with DK Metcalf replacing Lockett and spending down from Miles Sanders at RB to get a little more outside the box.
DraftKings salary: 6,500
Defense Raiders Def vs. Denver
Back to the clearance section I go. The Falcons defense had the Broncos on the ropes until a 21-point explosion in the 4th quarter in a losing effort. Even with that Drew Lock barely completed 50 percent of his passes.
The Broncos have trailed by double digits at halftime of five of their eight games, a recipe for even a shaky pass rush like the Raiders to get home a couple times and force the erratic Lock into a mistake or two.
DraftKings salary: 2,500