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Week 10 NFL Picks

The Back Door Cover Week 10 NFL Picks

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My Picks

Last Week: 2-3

Overall: 24-22-1 (52.3%)

BDC Lock of the Week

Last Week: 1-0

Overall: 6-2-1 (75.0%)

Week 9 Whiffs

  1. I underestimated Tua. I didn’t think he’d transition into an NFL quarterback, but at least for one week, he played well and out-dueled Kyler Murray.
  2. While we’re on the topic of underestimating quarterbacks, Josh Allen burned me this week as well. He had started to struggle coming into Week 9 so naturally he put up 44 points on Seattle.

Here are the ATS Standings after Week 9:

As always, the most important thing you’ll read:

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money.  I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along.  I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Week 10, here we go.

Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, o/u 56.5)

Alright Josh Allen, you got me last week. After several poor performances, Allen threw for over 400 yards in the Bills’ impressive win over the Seahawks.

Neither one of these teams have much defensive prowess so I expect the over to be in play here. From strictly a spread perspective, I do like the Bills to cover if you’re giving me points since this game is essentially a pick-em in my eyes.

I don’t expect the same stat line from Allen this week, but he’ll do enough to get the Bills a win in Arizona.

Arizona is 5-14-1 straight up in their last 20 homes games. The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

My Pick: Buffalo +2.5

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5, o/u 48.5)

Just like Allen, Tua made me look silly in Week 9. I’ll be honest, I’m a Tua hater. I just never thought his style would transition well to the NFL. Not that he’s 100% proven me wrong to this point, but he’s looked above average in his first two starts.

More than anything else though, Tua’s presence seems to have energized this Dolphins team. They are making plays on both sides of the ball as they try to keep pace with the Bills at the top of the AFC East.

Even though all of the Chargers’ six losses have come by less than seven points, they’re finding ways to lose games more often than not. If you’re giving me less than a field goal for whoever is playing L.A., I’m going to take a hard look at it. Miami wins by a field goal and barely covers.

Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. The Chargers are 4-11 straight up in their last 15 games.

My Pick: Miami -2.5

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, o/u 55.0)

The Seattle defense has been bad and that may be an understatement, but they’re going up against a Rams offense that has been equally as unimpressive. The other sides of the ball for each team is where the intriguing matchups are. Seattle’s league-leading offense will match up against the second ranked defense in terms of yards allowed per game.

In a game that looks to be close on paper, you have to give the edge to the better, more trustworthy, quarterback. Obviously that is Russell Wilson, so if you’re giving me points, I’m taking them. Seattle wins outright.

Seattle is 1-5 straight up in their last six games in Los Angeles. The Rams are 5-0 in their last five home games.

My Pick: Seattle + 1.5

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots (+7, o/u 44.0)

Please tell me anything about how the Patriots have played of late that would lead you to believe they can keep this game within a touchdown? I’ll wait…

The Patriots in the past few weeks have barely beaten the Jets and were embarrassed by the 49ers. That’s not a team that I would put money on to keep a game close against the Ravens. New England just simply doesn’t have the weapons. They’ll be hard-pressed to run the ball against Baltimore’s front seven and without the threat of the play-action, Cam Newton will continue to struggle (2:7 touchdown to interception ratio).

In the second half of Sunday’s matchup with the Colts, the Ravens’ offense seemed to have turned a bit of a corner (we hope). If that’s the case, they’ll make light work of the Patriots and cruise to a big win behind Lamar Jackson and the league’s top-ranked scoring defense.

I like the Ravens 37-13.

Baltimore is 11-2-2 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Patriots are 11-4 straight up in their last 15 games against the Ravens.

My Pick: Baltimore -7

BDC Lock of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (+5, o/u 50.5)

At first glance, this line looks off. Carolina just played arguably the best team in the NFL to a field goal game while Tampa had their doors blown off by the Saints. So how, in this divisional matchup, is the road team a five-point favorite here?

I like to pounce on these types of lines where Vegas seems to be pushing you in a different direction so I’m making this one my lock of the week.

Tampa had a rough game last week, but odds are that doesn’t continue in Week 10. The Panthers have a weaker pass defense than the Saints (five interceptions and nine sacks) which should allow her Majesty to get back on track this week.

Oh, and Christian McCaffrey is not expected to play. Book the Bucs.

Tampa Bay is 3-8 straight up in their last 11 road divisional games. Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

My Pick: Tampa Bay -5

Vegas is anticipating a lot of tight matchups in Week 10 based on the spreads so expect some exciting football. I do love the Bucs and Ravens this week and have them both in a parlay together. Happy Hunting!

Good luck in Week 10!

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About Drew Kordula

I was born and raised in Baltimore. I'm a graduate of Eastern Tech and UMBC. Baltimore/Maryland sports have always been a huge part of my life. Whether it be going to University of Maryland Football games with my dad as a kid, or climbing to the top of Mt. M&T Bank Stadium for my seats in section 540 today. I'm a Joe Flacco apologist, Buck Showalter groupie, and Wild Bill Hagy disciple. I love writing about Baltimore sports because I know how passionate of a fan base we have here. Everyone has an opinion and I invite you to share yours on any of my blogs no matter if you agree or disagree. Feel free to follow me on twitter @DrewKordula More from Drew Kordula
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