Somebody get me in touch with Jacoby Brissett’s people because he owes us money. The Titans-Colts game stack was going just as we authored it. Derrick Henry was going bananas (41.50 DK points). Nyheim Hines caught eight of 10 targets out of the backfield (17.50 DK points) and Philip Rivers came in just shy of the 300-yard bonus and threw two TDs (18.80 DK points). Those outputs from my duo of Colts could have been a lot stronger if Brissett didn’t decide to go full on Jerome Bettis with four carries for three yards and two TDs.
Mike Evans kept his feet in the paint with a 3-60-2 line (20 DK points). Hunter Henry and Travis Kelce didn’t set the world on fire but combined for 15 catches (29.90 combined DK points), which feels like five games worth to any other TE not named Darren Waller.
Andy Isabella (7.30 DK points) and the Bengals Defense (9 DK points) did their respective jobs at their modest price tags.
Stefon Diggs had an uncharacteristically quiet day first half and semi salvaged it on volume (seven catches for 39 yards).
We ended up with a total of 154.90 DK points.
The low hanging fruit is swapping out Kelce for Tyreek Hill, who went nuclear. I did that and had some success but if Rivers/Hines account for those two Brissett TDs we’re talking about something special.
Ahh well, back to the drawing board…on to Week 13.
QB Derek Carr @ New York Jets
Carr absolutely crushed me in one of my season-long leagues with his performance last week but I’ve never been one to hold a grudge. My thought process here is that 1. people will be off him because of last week’s performance and 2. With Josh Jacobs’ status in doubt, people will want to play Devontae Booker at 5,500 instead.
The matchup is a sweet one as only three teams give up more DK points per game to QBs than the Jets. With Jacobs out as that hammer on goal line I’m taking my chances that they lean on Carr in the red zone.
Now if Jacobs plays I’ll probably move away from Carr and there is always the chance that Booker is used 100 percent like Jacobs, and he smashes but I like the pivot here.
DraftKings salary: 5,800
RB Dalvin Cook vs. Jacksonville
Cook failed to meet his lofty expectations last week going for “just” 82 total yards on 22 touches with a fumble lost. He also hurt his ankle in the process and there have been coaching comments that have put his high-end workload a bit into question. I’m using all of that as fuel to get him into the lineup this week.
With all these factors coupled with his price, there will be plenty of people that get sticker shock..creating an opportunity for us to cash in.
Even if Alexander Mattison cuts into Cook’s touches, this matchup is such that he could get there anyway. The Jags allow a healthy 4.5 yards per carry and have given up 12 TDs to the RB position this season. Just last week they gave up over 200 rushing yards to the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cook’s ceiling here is too high for me to get away from.
DraftKings salary: 9,500
RB Austin Ekeler vs. New England
Ekeler rejoined the Chargers last week and was welcomed with a massive workload. He turned 30(!) touch opportunities into 14 carries and 11 catches for 129 total yards. Now he gets to face a beatable (feels weird to say) Patriots defense at home.
I could get more technical here but I won’t…For a player of his caliber and his workload, Ekeler should easily cost 1,000 more than what he does this week. I’m gonna take advantage while I can.
DraftKings salary: 7,100
WR Allen Robinson vs. Detroit
ARob is probably my favorite play of the week. Robinson averaged seven targets per game in the four games prior to last week. With Mitchell Trubisky back in the lineup last week he was targeted 13 times. In Trubisky’s three starts to open the year he averaged 10 targets and last year when Trubisky started all but one game, Robinson had 158 targets.
The matchup only heightens the clear value play he is as the Lions give up the 8th most points per game to wide receivers and they just placed Desmond Trufant on IR.
At his price, Robinson should be a core play for everyone this week…he will be for me.
DraftKings salary: 6,700
WR Nelson Agholor @ New York Jets
Stacking Carr with his unlikely #1 WR. Since Week 3, Agholor has paced Las Vegas receivers in targets in every game but one. Agholor has played some good real-life football and forced himself near the top of the target pecking order for the Raiders. Even in a turnover-laden game where the Falcons controlled the clock, Agholor was able to secure five of six targets for 54 yards.
Now he gets this Jets defense that allows 8.1 adjusted yards per pass attempt…the 6th most in the NFL.
Agholor is at a price point where he’s not considered a bargain and his raw volume won’t jump off the page at you but if I’m betting on the Raiders passing game it makes sense to get an integral piece that will probably fly under the radar.
DraftKings salary: 5,200
WR Breshad Perriman vs. Las Vegas
Denzel Mims has gotten a ton of buzz and sounds like he’ll be a popular cheap play again this week but you know who last week outsnapped him, matched his 8 targets and is actually cheaper this week? You guessed it.
Over his last three games, Perriman is averaging 78 receiving yards per game and has scored three TDs. Last week’s performance was especially encouraging because it came with usually slot focused Sam Darnold.
Perriman in a vacuum is just a nice play at his price but I love the correlation here and the leverage on Denzel Mims.
DraftKings salary: 3,900
TE Jordan Akins vs. Indianapolis
Everybody will play Akins this week but with some of the off the radar plays in this lineup I think we can afford to ride the wave a bit here. I played Akins on Thanksgiving Day and cringed at his two near touchdowns, but brighter days look to be on the horizon.
With Will Fuller (punches air) out for the rest of the season due to a PED suspension, there are targets up for grabs in this offense. Keke Coutee will be the popular answer to this equation but he doesn’t really profile as a guy that can excel on the outside.
The Texans could very well go more 2 TE sets, maybe even as their base. There is also a strong possibility that Akins plays in the slot just as much if not more than Coutee.
At this price point versus the Colts zone-based defense that concedes soft spots in the middle of the field, Akins will be one of the top bargains of the week.
DraftKings salary: 2,900
Flex Cooper Kupp @ Arizona
The Rams (well, Jared Goff) are coming off a rough one versus the 49ers but I’m optimistic about their chances to bounce back statistically, specifically Cooper Kupp. His five targets last week were a season low, but he had a whopping 40 in the three games prior.
In two games versus the Cardinals last year, Kupp had 13 catches on 16 targets, 164 receiving yards and he scored a TD in both games.
I don’t know if I’ll go all out to invest in this game, but I do want pieces of it. Both teams are top six in neutral situation pace and the production on both sides only goes to a handful of players. Love Kupp’s upside this week, especially if Kyler gets back to being Kyler.
DraftKings salary: 6,100
Defense Chargers Def vs. New England
This lineup challenged my core of punt defenses. I have Perriman so I don’t want to play the Raiders defense. I have Allen Robinson so I don’t want to play the Lions Defense. With two of my favorites off the board I’m going with a team that’s given up damn near 30 points every week since Week 4 (cringe).
But if there is anybody that can fall short of that run it’s the water pistol core of weapons the Patriots have surrounded Cam Newton with. I’ll take a gamble for this price when the QB didn’t even get to 100 yards passing last week.
DraftKings salary: 2,600