Derek Carr hit but for the 2nd week in a row I’ve played the teammate of a pass catcher to go nuclear (Applies clown makeup.gif). Nelson Agholor had a forgettable 4-38-0 while Darren Waller had only the 6th 200-yard yard receiving game for a tight end in NFL history.
Dalvin Cook didn’t get in the end zone, but he piled up an insane 41 touch opportunities, turning them into 179 total yards (26.90 DK points).
Allen Robinson and Cooper Kupp were their usual involved selves but didn’t manage to make many big plays or get into the end zone (28.80 combined DK points).
Most everything else unraveled…Austin Ekeler had 68 scoreless total yards (10.80 DK points) and the Chargers Defense had -3 DK points in their embarrassing home blowout loss to the Patriots. Jordan Akins and Breshad Perriman bombed as well, combining for 6.20 DK points.
As a whole the lineup totaled 113.24 points, a step back for sure but I won’t be discouraged in my quest for a buzzsaw tournament lineup. On to Week 14.
QB Kirk Cousins @ Tampa Bay
I expect many will be on the QB on the other side of this matchup. Tom Brady going up against this flammable Vikings pass defense is certainly a sound direction to go in…but we know completely following the wave isn’t going to win us a large field tournament.
As good as things look for Brady they look sneakily (this doesn’t feel like a real word but alas) the same for Cousins. The Bucs have a legitimate great run defense…ranking #1 by most any metric. Because of this opposing teams have attempted 456 passes against the Bucs this season (4th most in the NFL).
That’s music to my ears as it pertains to Cousins. The one concern we’ve had with him from a production standpoint is the lack of volume but that shouldn’t be an issue this week. In fact it hasn’t been much of an issue the last four games and he’s been super productive. He’s had at least 30 pass attempts in each of the last four games and he’s averaging over 300 passing yards a game and has an 11-2 TD to Interception ratio in that stretch.
The Bucs pass defense has taken a step back in that same stretch, giving up four passing TDs to Drew Brees, 376 passing yards and four TDs to Jared Goff and 462 passing yards and three TDs to Patrick Mahomes. I like Cousins’ chances of extending the trend on both sides.
DraftKings salary: 6,200
RB Ronald Jones vs. Minnesota
Doubling down on my Bucs passing game pivot here with RoJo. The ineptitude of the Vikings pass defense has probably masked that fact that they are at least mildly vulnerable as a run defense as well. 121 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry are middle of the pack numbers but numbers that will not deter us from placing a bet on the running game for a team that has a 29 implied team total.
The Bucs have kinda struggled all year with their identity as a pass offense but maybe with Jones averaging 5.1 yards per carry, their identity should be running the football?
Now rostering Ronald Jones can be a little like…
— window seat on the spaceship (@Carey1313) November 15, 2020
But if you’re willing to live on the wild side, he’s got multiple games over 21 DK points this season.
DraftKings salary: 6,100
RB Myles Gaskin vs. Kansas City
In his long-awaited return to the lineup (whew, 2020 has been a year), Gaskin was the workhorse he left the lineup as with 21 carries and two targets. He turned those touches into 141 total yards and looked impressive doing it.
The think I like most about Gaskin, besides his price, is that he can give us a strong contribution regardless of how this game goes.
If Brian Flores and this impressive Dolphins defense is able to somewhat contain this Chiefs offense, Gaskin can rack up the carries versus a defense giving up 4.8 yards per carry.
If Mahomes does Mahomes like things and the game script shifts to a negative one? Gaskin had at least four targets in every game this season before last week’s game versus the Bengals.
5600 is just too cheap for a player with the profile that Gaskin has and with the Chiefs on the other side crafting a far better game environment than the Bengals could dream of…I like his chances of hitting.
DraftKings salary: 5,600
WR Adam Thielen @ Tampa Bay
Rookie standout Justin Jefferson will probably be mildly more popular but I’m choosing to stack Cousins with his red zone BFF. Thielen is second in the NFL with 12 receiving TDs and has been incredibly efficient all year. The risk with Thielen is the Vikings at their core want to run the football as much as humanly possible, so if he gets a six-target game and doesn’t get into the end zone…you’re screwed.
The great thing about this matchup is as good as the Vikings have been running the football it’s tough to envision a scenario where they run it down the Bucs’ throat. Thielen’s 8.5 target per game average over his last four games should be a solid baseline for this matchup, with the room to grow into the double digits.
DraftKings salary: 7,000
WR Julio Jones @ Los Angeles (Chargers)
The Chargers defense let me down last week so I’m choosing to attack them this week. I believe the donut the Chargers put up last week is suppressing this game total (49). Even with an improved Falcons defense under Raheem Morris’ watch, this game has big time shoot out potential. Outside of last week, Josh Herbert has been too good for me to bet against that just being an outlier game.
Julio returned to the lineup last week and looked like himself, posting a 6-94-0 line on 10 targets.
The Chargers have a talented secondary and have held up well against WR’s well statistically, but their defense as a whole has given up at least 27 points in every game since week 4.
Julio at this price point and this potential game environment is just too appealing for me to get away from.
DraftKings salary: 6,600
WR DJ Chark vs. Tennessee
In another case of a receiver returning to action, Chark didn’t have the success that Julio did (two catches for 41 yards on seven targets) but there was promise shown in his first action with Mike Glennon.
According to Rotoworld, Glennon’s 10 deep ball targets were the most of any QB for week 13. Chark figured heavily into that as he had 131 air yards.
Now in a game they are very likely to playing from behind versus a vulnerable Titans secondary, this is a prime blow-up spot for Chark. I would have liked to see a stronger target share than 16% percent but at 5,300 we can’t have everything. Chark is gifted enough to get there on six to eight targets.
DraftKings salary: 5,300
TE Cole Kmet vs. Houston
I think we’ve differentiated enough to ride the public wave a little. At his price point and growing role, I expect him to be super popular this week. Moving ahead of Jimmy Graham, Kmet has run 66 routes in the last two weeks and his seven targets and five catches and 95 percent snap share were all season highs.
The matchup is a middling one based off tight end production versus the Texans this season, but nobody is going to confuse them with being a prohibitive…especially since they give up a league high 8.6 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.
With a little more life at QB with Trubisky at QB (blinks) or at the very least a little more variance, Kmet could come thru with a big play…at the least he should pay back his price with the involvement he has now.
DraftKings salary: 2,900
Flex AJ Brown @ Jacksonville
So you know I had to add some reinforcements to drive home my DJ Chark play, but I’ve decided to pivot from the more popular Derrick Henry to AJB. Kinda in the same vein as Thielen but to an even higher extent, playing Brown at this price makes you a little uneasy from a volume perspective.
Brown hasn’t reached double digit targets in any game this year and averages seven per on the season but he’s just so good he crushes. Since his return to the lineup in Week 5 he has eight TDs and only one game with less than double digit DK points.
Now he faces a Jags defense that gives up the 5th most points per game to wide receivers and just got rocked by Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson last week (17 combined catches for 196 yards and 2 TDs). Play AJ Brown this week.
DraftKings salary: 7,300
Defense Giants Def vs. Arizona
This one is another play I expect to be popular with the frugal Defense players like myself. Fresh off the stifling of the Seahawks (shoutout Giants DC Patrick Graham). The Giants have a chance to create issues for Kyler Murray and company this week.
Since suffering a shoulder injury a few weeks ago, Kyler has run a lot less and put together some of his lowest yardage totals since last season. Teams have also made adjustment to how they defend their running game and DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t made as many plays down the field.
The Giants on the other hand have pushed the pocket far better than I would have ever anticipated, including a season high five sacks last week.
I suppose Kyler is dangerous enough to pop off at any moment but I’m gonna follow the trends of both teams here lately and bank on that not happening.
DraftKings salary: 2,600