Week 16 NFL Picks

The Back Door Cover Week 16 NFL Picks

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My Picks

Last Week: 1-4

Overall: 39-36-3 (52.0%)

BDC Lock of the Week

Last Week: 1-0

Overall: 10-4-1 (71.4%)

Week 15 Whiffs

  1. Vegas is good…really good. Three of my four losses were within a point and a half of the actual spread. Lots of nail biting on Sunday…
  2. I expected a bit of a letdown from Baltimore. They look poised to make a bit of a run if they can sneak into the dance.

Here are the ATS Standings after Week 15:

As always, the most important thing you’ll read:

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money.  I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along.  I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Onto Week 16.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+2, o/u 44.5)

Pittsburgh has been struggling big time. Had it not been for a COVID-ridden Ravens team, they could have easily lost four straight. As it stands, they no longer have the same stranglehold on the division as they did a month ago and their last two games are now very critical.

On the flip side, the Colts have been solid of late. Jonathan Taylor has been averaging 103.5 rushing yards per game over his last four starts and the Colts are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS over that same span.

Ultimately, I don’t think that Mike Tomlin and Big Ben allow the Steelers to lose a fourth straight game at this critical juncture. They’ll be ready to play and get back to a team that resembles one that started the season 11-0. I think they’ll force Philip Rivers into a few turnovers which will turn this game and allow the Steelers to win outright.

Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS on the road this season with a 7.4 average point differential. The Steelers are 15-1 straight up in their last 16 home games against the Colts.

My Pick: Pittsburgh +2

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (+2, o/u 49.5)

The Eagles are 4-9-1 and a not-so-outlandish scenario would see them as division champs. That’s the NFC East in a nutshell.

Although the Cowboys’ rushing duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have been running well the past few weeks, I don’t think the Cowboys possess the defense to be able to slow down the Eagles enough to win this game. I like the Eagles to cover, and I LOVE the over in this matchup.

Philadelphia is 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games. The Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.

My Pick: Philadelphia -2

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots (+7, o/u 46.0)

There’s a new sheriff in town when it comes to the AFC East. Buffalo clinched the division last week and can really rub it in the Patriots’ face by clinching the number two seed in the AFC with a win in the land that Brady built.

I really think the Patriots have mailed it in a bit and Buffalo will look to make a statement in New England on Monday night. Josh Allen will flourish under the lights of Monday Night Football and the Bills will stick it to the Pats. Bills by double-digits.

The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. New England is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.

My Pick: Buffalo -7

New York Giants vs. Baltimore Ravens (-11, o/u 45.0)

Even though these two teams have mirrored records, this game is huge for both teams. The Giants sit one game behind the Redskins for the NFC East lead and the Ravens are jostling for one of the AFC wildcard spots.

The matchup to watch this week will be the Ravens’ top ranked rushing offense, against the sixth ranked rush defense. Over the past two years, we’ve seen the Ravens demoralize defenses across the NFL no matter how highly they were ranked and I think we’re going to see that again this week.

The Ravens have found their groove on offense. It’s unfortunate it took until this late in the season, but here we are. Baltimore will, once again, establish their ground game and run all over the Giants. I like Baltimore to win and cover easily.

Ravens 31-13.

New York is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and sit at #2 in the ATS Rankings.

My Pick: Baltimore -11

BDC Lock of the Week

Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5, o/u 56.0)

I’ve not been as high as some on the Packers this season. I think they’ve over-performed in a way I didn’t see coming. Aaron Rodgers looks as if Father Time hasn’t taken a toll on his body and is in the conversation for MVP. However, once again, I’m going against them even though they’ve burned me time after time this year.

I’m making this my lock of the week because I have faith in Derrick Henry. I believe the Titans will ride him in this game and he’ll be able to keep Tennessee in this one till the end.

The one thing that gives me a bit of pause, however, is the weakness of the Titans’ secondary. If given time, Rodgers should be able to pick apart this unit, but I believe Tennessee will keep him on the sideline by running effectively.

I like Tennessee to cover the 3.5 points in Green Bay on Sunday Night.

Green Bay is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last six prime-time games. The Titans are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 road games.

My Pick: Tennessee +3.5

Wishing you and your family a Happy Holidays! Good luck in Week 16!

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About Drew Kordula

I was born and raised in Baltimore. I'm a graduate of Eastern Tech and UMBC. Baltimore/Maryland sports have always been a huge part of my life. Whether it be going to University of Maryland Football games with my dad as a kid, or climbing to the top of Mt. M&T Bank Stadium for my seats in section 540 today. I'm a Joe Flacco apologist, Buck Showalter groupie, and Wild Bill Hagy disciple. I love writing about Baltimore sports because I know how passionate of a fan base we have here. Everyone has an opinion and I invite you to share yours on any of my blogs no matter if you agree or disagree. Feel free to follow me on twitter @DrewKordula More from Drew Kordula

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