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Week 17 NFL Picks

The Back Door Cover Week 17 NFL Picks

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My Picks

Last Week: 3-2

Overall: 42-38-3 (52.5%)

BDC Lock of the Week

Last Week: 0-1

Overall: 10-5-1 (66.7%)

Week 16 Whiffs

  1. My lock was off…way off. I thought Tennessee would be able to run the ball against the Packers defense and keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline. That did NOT happen. Click here if you want the Best NFL Picks Against the Spread.
  2. Philadelphia also laid a giant egg in a game that officially put them on the outside of the playoffs. They started off hot, but faded quickly.

Here are the ATS Standings after Week 16:

As always, the most important thing you’ll read:

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money.  I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along.  I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Week 17 is always a crapshoot so here we go into the season finale…

 Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (+3, o/u 44.5)

The Cowboys need this game to give themselves a shot at the NFC East title. However, I think the Giants have an edge and could win this game outright.

That edge lies on the defensive side of the ball. The Giants run defense was performing well before getting shredded by Baltimore in Week 16. They’ll get back to form and limit Ezekiel Elliott on the ground which will allow them to keep this game close.

I love the under here as well.

The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the NFC East. Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

My Pick: New York +3

 Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, o/u 50.5)

Atlanta, surprisingly, kept the Chiefs offense at bay in Week 16 and easily covered the 11 point spread. The Bucs also looked strong last week and are poised to make a run at the Super Bowl with their flourishing offense.

What’s really on the line here for Tampa though, is the opportunity to play either Dallas or Washington. That prize, by itself, is enough motivation for the Buccaneers to come out and take care of business against the Falcons.

The Bucs will win by double-digits and continue their hot streak.

Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in their last nine January games. The Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 divisional games.

My Pick: Tampa Bay -6.5

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (+6, o/u 46.0)

Although Seattle has already clinched the NFC West, they still have an outside shot at the NFC’s top seed.

The Seahawks haven’t allowed more than 17 points in five straight games and I don’t foresee that streak ending this week. With that said, they’ll easily put up more than 23 points that would be needed to cover in that situation. Seattle by a touchdown.

Seattle is 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The 49ers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games against Seattle.

My Pick: Seattle -6

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+13, o/u 44.5)

Both of these teams come in hot. Cincinnati has looked much better of late and there’s an opportunity here for them to take advantage of a banged up Baltimore secondary.

I also think that the Bengals will be motivated to ruin the Ravens’ season and potentially keep them out of the playoffs. If the Ravens can withstand the early onslaught from the Bengals, they have the ability to run away with this game. However, I think this one will be more of a dogfight.

Unfortunately, I see us biting our nails and pulling our hair out as the Ravens sneak into the playoffs with a closer than expected win in Cincy as they pull away late.

Ravens 31-20.

Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. The Ravens are 14-2 straight up in their last 16 1 pm games.

My Pick: Cincinnati +13

BDC Lock of the Week

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (+5.5, o/u 52.0)

Aaron Rodgers, you have burned me time and time again this season. It’s fitting that I’m making you my lock in Week 17 with the NFC’s top seed on the line.

The Bears’ resurgence is what drove this line down to where it sits now. I just don’t think it’ll be enough against the Packers’ offense who have scored 30 or more points in five of their past six games.

I love the Packers here by double-digits.

The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight divisional games. Green Bay is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Chicago.

My Pick: Green Bay -5.5

Good luck in Week 17!

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About Drew Kordula

I was born and raised in Baltimore. I'm a graduate of Eastern Tech and UMBC. Baltimore/Maryland sports have always been a huge part of my life. Whether it be going to University of Maryland Football games with my dad as a kid, or climbing to the top of Mt. M&T Bank Stadium for my seats in section 540 today. I'm a Joe Flacco apologist, Buck Showalter groupie, and Wild Bill Hagy disciple. I love writing about Baltimore sports because I know how passionate of a fan base we have here. Everyone has an opinion and I invite you to share yours on any of my blogs no matter if you agree or disagree. Feel free to follow me on twitter @DrewKordula More from Drew Kordula
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