Last Week: 2-3-1
Overall: 47-43-4 (52.2%)
BDC Lock of the Week
Last Week: 0-1
Overall: 11-6-1 (64.7%)
Wild Card Whiffs
- I shouldn’t have downplayed Russell Wilson’s late season struggles. They continued in the Wild Card round and the Seahawks lost at home.
- Buffalo was cruising and it looked like my lock was going to cover easily. They slowly (well, quickly if you watched those two quick Colts drives…) let Indy creep back into the game and crushed my lock.
Here are the ATS Standings for the remaining teams left in the playoffs:
As always, the most important thing you’ll read:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Onto Round 2:
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5, o/u 50.0)
As the line suggests, this game is shaping up to be a close one.
Will the Ravens be able to run the ball as effectively as they have the past few weeks against a rush defense that gave up 4.6 yards per attempt this season? Will the Ravens be able to slow down this increasingly potent Bills passing attack? I think the answers to both of those questions is, most likely, yes. However, the biggest concern for me, is mother nature.
Lamar crushed the narrative that he can’t win in the playoffs last week, but as the weather stands now (15-25mph winds and 1-3in of snow), I can see him having a lot of trouble both running and passing in Buffalo this week. Josh Allen is better equipped to have success in that type of environment and assuming the weather stays where it is, I think he’ll outduel Lamar…unfortunately.
If the Ravens are to win this game, it’ll be on the backs of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Although they’re certainly capable of controlling this game, I don’t think they will. It pains me to say it, but I like the Bills to win and cover (barely) 34-31.
Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games. The Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
My Pick: Buffalo -2.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10, o/u 57.5)
At this point, the Browns have nothing to lose. They’ve had an extremely successful season and although I think it ends in Kansas City, it’ll be a lot closer than many people think. Cleveland will be able to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands with their run game which will keep them alive late into the game.
These two teams rank 7th and 8th in my Divisional Round ATS rankings. And despite their 14-2 record, Kansas City only has a 5.3 average home point differential. All signs point to a Cleveland cover in my opinion.
Kansas City wins, but Cleveland covers; 37-32.
The Browns are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games. Kansas City is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
My Pick: Cleveland +10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (-3, o/u 52.0)
This is yet another interesting Divisional Round matchup. Both teams have been solid on both sides of the ball, but to me, the most intriguing matchup is Tom Brady against this Saints’ defense that has been dominant of late.
The Buccaneers have all the tools to be explosive on offense, and they have been late in the season. If you’re giving me points in this matchup, I’m taking them because I think this game will come down to the wire. I like Tampa to eventually win this one outright.
Tampa Bay is 6-0 straight up in their last six road games. The Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
My Pick: Tampa Bay +3
BDC Lock of the Week
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5, o/u 45.5)
I want so badly to take the Rams here, but they are extremely banged up and Aaron Rodgers won’t let them off the hook like Seattle did last week.
For the Rams, there are questions about who will be under center with John Wolford going down in last week’s game and Jared Goff still recovering from surgery. That’s not a good situation to be in going into Lambeau Field in mid-January.
Rodgers won’t have a banner game against this Rams’ defense, but he’ll do enough to cover the touchdown spread. I LOVE the under in this game.
The Rams are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Rams.
My Pick: Green Bay -6.5
Good luck in the Divisional Round!