Last week was one of solid performance across the board with the lack of blow up. Stefon Diggs was the only standout performer with an 8-106-1 line (27.60 points). The rookie duo of J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers both had 90 + total yards but only four catches and one TD between the two of them (30.90 total points). Jarvis Landry only had 20 yards receiving but had seven receptions and touchdown to somewhat salvage his day (15 points). Emmanuel Sanders had six receptions but with the vertically challenged Drew Brees at the controls they only amounted to 48 TD-less yards.
It was the rest of the Ravens *sigh* who disappointed. Lamar had less than 200 total yards, no TDs and left the game with a concussion (8.88 points). Mark Andrews dropped a potential TD and ended up with a pedestrian 4-28-0 line (6.80 points) and the Ravens defense got two sacks and held this Bills offense well in check but weren’t able to force Josh Allen into any turnovers (6 points).
The lineup posted a disappointing 105.98 total, a decided step back from the previous week. Here’s to a bounce back as we’ve made it to the NFL’s final four. On to the conference championship.
QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Tampa Bay
For my money the best QB play of the weekend. The Bucs have a stellar run defense and our getting Vita Vea back this week to add to an imposing interior defensive line. Between that and the Bucs being one of the faster paced offenses, Rodgers should have plenty of attempts in this game.
Rodgers had by far his worst game of the season versus the Bucs back in Week 6 but in what has been a likely MVP season for him, I’m going to bet on that performance being an outlier.
DraftKings salary: 6,500
RB Leonard Fournette @ Green Bay
With Rodgers in at QB and my plans to flank him with pass catchers I need to be strategic with my running back. Ronald Jones being cheaper and showing more pop as a runner intrigues me but if I’m going to play the game theory game, I have to go with Playoff Lenny (Who cleared this btw?)
He’ll get his work in the run game but more importantly he’ll be the guy out there on 3rd downs.
The Packers give up the 5th most DK points per game as they are susceptible on the ground and are top 10 in targets and receptions allowed to the position. 10 carries and 5 targets feels like a reasonable floor and should be enough for Fournette to come through.
DraftKings salary: 5,300
RB Darrel Williams vs. Buffalo
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire trending towards playing, I like the idea of pivoting to Williams here. He dominated snaps and touches last week, handling 17 touches for 94 total yards. Even with CEH in the fold i expect Williams to remain very involved. Edwards-Helaire’s overall health and conditioning may not be ready for a full workload and Williams is the team’s most trusted pass protector. That last part is pivotal consider Mahomes’ health concerns and the Chiefs lofty goals. Since we’ll have $200 in room in this lineup you swap up to CEH but keep in mind that would put you at 0 remaining salary and probably really hinder your lineup from being unique.
DraftKings salary: 4,800
WR Davante Adams vs. Tampa Bay
Death, taxes and Davante Adams catching at least six passes. Adams had a “down” game last week and still had a 9-66-1 line. With the Bucs being the pass funnel I alluded to and allowing the 5th most targets to wide receivers this season, Adams projects as the top player on the slate this week.
DraftKings salary: 8,000
WR Stefon Diggs @ Kansas City
Despite the tougher matchup last week, Diggs came thru in a major way, continuing his productive and voluminous ways. Kansas City is another tough matchup in theory but players of Diggs’ caliber in the role he’s playing in this Bills offense can’t be faded. Especially on a two-game slate.
If this becomes a shootout, Diggs’ target ceiling is insane and even if it doesn’t, he’s looking at an 8-10 target floor.
DraftKings salary: 7,000
WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling vs. Tampa Bay
People will remember the highlight of Allen Lazard’s long TD reception and forget that MVS had just as many targets as he did, had two end zone targets and is typically the recipient of deep shots like the one Lazard scored on.
We’ve talked about the Bucs being a pass funnel defense, but they also have given up the 4th most air yards on completions in the NFL per pro football reference. Matching up perfectly with MVS’s field stretching game. One long TD flanked by a couple receptions gets us where we need to go at his price tag.
DraftKings salary: 3,900
TE Travis Kelce vs. Buffalo
I’ve attacked the Bills defense with the TE on the last couple of slates with mixed results. Jack Doyle went 7-70-1 in the wildcard round while Mark Andrews disappointed last week. One thing I will say is, even though Andrews didn’t come thru he certainly had the opportunity to. As I mentioned before he did drop a would-be TD in the back of the end zone and he had a healthy 11 targets.
It’s only right I use the league’s best TE to go back to the well against the team that allowed the most TE receptions in the league. Kelce scoring 2 TDs when these teams played in Week 6 certainly doesn’t hurt matters either.
One a slate with no real RB pay up options, treat yourself to something nice and play Kelce.
DraftKings salary: 8,000
Flex Gabriel Davis @ Kansas City
Davis is coming off a slow game where he suffered an injury. He only had four targets, but one was a near TD in the red zone. The Chiefs blitz at a top 10 rate and Josh Allen has been great versus the blitz this season. With Cole Beasley still not looking quite right and a Chiefs offense always capable of exploding at any moment, I like Davis’ chances for returning value at his price point.
DraftKings salary: 3,500
Defense Bills Def @ Kansas City
I know, I know…I just told you how the Chiefs offense is capable of exploding at any moment…but let’s be honest, this offense hasn’t performed to it’s lofty standard in a little while now and Mahomes is battling a toe injury that will certainly hamper his mobility to a degree.
At this point we’re kinda just playing rock, paper, scissors with the defenses so why not invest in a cheaper one that’s off the beaten path a little?
DraftKings salary: 2,800