This is the ultimate list of NFL betting tips that will help you get better results from your wagers.
In this guide, you will get access to 5 proven strategies that professional bettors use to improve their win rate and make a living from predicting the outcome of sports events.
So, if you want to start your NFL betting journey the right way, this guide is for you.
Let’s dive right in.
The basics of NFL online betting
We won’t be covering NFL betting in-depth since it would exceed the scope of our article.
Still, we want to quickly go through the main betting types that you need to know before you can start wagering on football (assuming you’re entirely new to online sports betting):
- Point spread – This is the most common NFL bet type. To win it, you need to guess if one of the teams will defeat the other by a fixed number of points. If the team you bet on is the underdog, you will win the bet if they win or lose by less than the number of points on the spread;
- Totals – Also known as over/under bets, this type of wager requires you to guess if the total number of points will be higher or lower than the value set by the bookmaker. Totals usually range from 35 in low-scoring games and 50 in high-scoring games, but they can go up to 70 in some cases;
- Moneyline – Betting the money line is the wager that most beginner bettors tend to go for since it only requires you to predict the outright winner of a match. Since there are usually performance differences between the two teams in a given wager, they are labelled as underdogs and favorites, which makes it easier for you to guess the team that has more chances to win;
- In-play betting – Live or in-play betting is the most entertaining form of NFL wagering since it allows you to place all types of bets in real-time. The odds update as the game is being played, based on the performance of the teams. Even though in-play betting is more rewarding than regular bets, the volatility may be concerning for beginners that have no experience with this type of wager;
- Other types of bets – The beauty of sports betting comes from the wide range of wagers available. In NFL, the most popular alternative bets are Futures and Props. The props bets require you to guess specific non-winning outcomes like passing yards or first touchdown scorer. According to a case study from iGaming experts at casinobonusca, the betting market has hundreds of alternative betting types. Some of them are downright strange, like guessing the Superbowl Halftime show performers or the national anthem singer.
Be aware: In betting, NFL teams are called “underdog” and “favorite,” which determine the potential payout of a specific wager. They are represented by numbers: negative for the favorite and positive for the underdog.
1. Research team statistics
Most beginners ignore the fact that the Internet is a gold mine of sports betting information.
They tend to overlook NFL team statistics provided by the bookmakers or other sports sites. This mistake can be costly, especially when you bet on Totals.
While you can get lucky and occasionally predict the Over/Under value, guessing is not a long-term winning strategy in sports betting. Instead, we recommend doing your homework on every player and compare the head-to-head team performance to make a more informed betting decision.
Understanding team statistics is ultimately determined by your game expertise. Therefore, the more you know about football, the higher your chances of getting the wagers right. Our suggestion is to spend time analyzing the data and make a few test wagers to see if your research can bring you positive results.
2. Keep a close eye on injury reports
If you’ve been following the NFL for a while, you probably know that if a key player of the favorite team is injured, the underdog suddenly has a higher chance of winning the game.
We’ve interviewed a couple of professional NFL handicappers to find out some secrets about betting success.
Always check the injury reports. If you didn’t know, you can access this information for free on the official NFL website. While the data is not 100% accurate all the time, it can bring you some insights that aren’t available elsewhere.
Recommendation: Use the official NFL injury report as a way to determine which players have questionable health. This way, you will understand precisely whether their in-game performance will be lower than usual, which will ultimately help you place better wagers, backed by data.
3. Timing your bets is crucial
Before the Internet, you could only place wagers during the day at the local sportsbook.
Since the betting venue wasn’t open 24/7, you could miss out on many valuable wagers that you couldn’t make because you didn’t get there on time.
Nowadays, you can literally wager from anywhere using your mobile device. Since the betting lines are constantly changing, depending on the number of punters that are wagering on it, you can consider waiting until the values change in your favor.
Here’s a quick example:
Suppose you’re checking out some point spread odds on a Wednesday for the upcoming Patriots vs 49ers game. You notice that the underdogs (i.e. Patriots) have a six-point spread at home. You can either place your bet on Patriots right away or wait until the weekend comes, and the spread for the 49ers may reach a +7 or +8.
Remember: odds change periodically, so you shouldn’t rush your bets unless you’re 100% that you won’t get a better value by waiting a few days.
4. Learn how to manage your bankroll efficiently
Any professional punter knows that having a proper bankroll management strategy in place is crucial for long-term betting success.
In a nutshell, if you want to keep your betting habits under control, you need to keep a separate budget dedicated to gambling. This way, if you run out of money, you have no other choice but to wait until the next betting session.
So, instead of going in with no clear goal in mind, you’ve set a bankroll that restricts you from overbetting or falling into the trap of the gambler’s fallacy.
The pros recommend only using money that you can afford to lose or that you would, metaphorically speaking, flush down the drain.
Once you’ve decided the value of your bankroll, you will need to determine a fixed percentage you want to use for each wager (below 5%). This way, you can trick your brain and avoid chasing your losses and betting more just to recover from the damage taken.
Line shopping refers to the action of browsing through all the available betting opportunities and handpicking the ones that offer you the most value.
Just like supermarket prices, online bookmakers have very competitive betting lines that are almost the same. That’s because they’re using similar algorithms, and they’re constantly stealing intel from one another to stay ahead of the competition and keep the market fair for everyone.
However, sportsbooks sometimes intentionally undercut the odds to hijack their competitors’ traffic. This way, their lines are noticeably different from the rest, making it a great value betting opportunity for the punters.
Professional bettors have the habit of shopping for the best lines by comparing several sportsbooks until they find the correct value. You will often hear them say stuff like:
“I would bet the point spread at 6.5, but not at 6. So, I will choose this operator instead of the other one.”
So yeah, even 0.5 odds can make a difference in the outcome, meaning that it’s better to invest this extra time researching for the best lines on the market.
Also, the saying “the early bird gets the worm” applies to NFL betting. That’s why most pro punters are waiting for the exact moment when the odds appear on the platform. By doing so, they have the opportunity to get a “discount” line since the majority have not placed their wagers yet.
Be aware: Although value betting is a valuable strategy, sportsbooks hate it. Most online operators have various algorithms responsible for fixing the odds that weren’t correctly estimated. Still, if you place the wager before they repair their mistake, you’ve got yourself a value bet that cannot be undone.
Bonus tip: Remember to have fun
Let’s face it: You won’t always win your NFL bets.
We know that any punter wants to make money by placing wagers on their favorite teams.
However, there is no way you can win 100% of the time, and that’s alright. Betting should never be considered an income source (unless you’re a professional). Instead, think of it as a great form of entertainment that allows you to support your favorite NFL team.
So, the essential thing in sports betting is to have fun. You will make money sometimes, but remember that nobody makes perfect decisions.
Now we would like to hear from you
There you have it: 7 NFL betting tips that any beginner should know.
Now, we would like to hear your opinion:
Did you learn any new NFL betting techniques from today’s article?
Or maybe you have an advanced strategy that we didn’t mention here.
Either way, let us know by leaving a quick comment below.