Week 3 NFL Picks

The Back Door Cover Week 3 NFL Picks

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My Picks

Last Week: 4-1 (80.0%)

Overall: 7-3 (70.0%)

BDC Lock of the Week

Last Week: 1-0

Overall: 2-0 (100.0%)

Week 2 Whiffs:

— Never has a whiff felt so good. The Chiefs look destined to win and cover in Baltimore, but the Ravens willed their way back and stole one at home which kept me from a perfect week. Let’s be honest though, you thought it was over at one point or another too.

After three weeks, here are the ATS Rankings:

 

The favorites have clawed their way back a bit, but underdogs have still hit 65% of the time early on in the season. A little foreshadowing, but I think that changes this week.

As always, here is probably the most important line that you will read:

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money.  I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along.  I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read.  Onto Week 3…

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+7, o/u 51.5)

Kyler Murray is setting the pace for the 2021-22 MVP race two weeks into the campaign. He has seven touchdown passes and has added two rushing touchdowns. It’ll be hard to keep up that kind of trajectory throughout the season, but there’s no reason to believe this will be the week he slows down. Jacksonville’s defense has looked terrible to start the season and I expect Murray to deliver another stellar performance.

Arizona is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. The Jaguars are 0-17 straight up in their last 17 games.

My Pick: Arizona -7

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns (-7, o/u 45.5)

With Andy Dalton banged up, Justin Fields will be making his first career NFL start this week in Cleveland. And although I think Fields has potential to be a very good quarterback in this league, you won’t see that this week. Going up against a front four that contains Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney? That’s a recipe to force a rookie quarterback into mistakes. Cleveland will apply pressure early to test the youngster. They’ll bang Fields around as they introduce him to life in the NFL and win by double digits.

Chicago is 1-5 straight up and ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Browns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.

My Pick: Cleveland -7

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings (+1.5, o/u 55.5)

At 1.5 points, this game is essentially a pick-em. With that in mind, I have to lean towards the better quarterback in Russell Wilson. Although Dalvin Cook is a horse, Seattle will render him useless by staying ahead of the Vikings and forcing Minnesota to beat them through the air. Ultimately, I don’t trust Kirk Cousins to be able to do that.

Seattle is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams under .500. The Vikings are 2-7 straight up in their last 9 games as a home underdog.

My Pick: Seattle -1.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions (+9, o/u 49.5)

Well, here the Ravens are 1-1. That is probably the record the majority of us had them with through two weeks, but almost definitely not the way we thought they would get here. Nevertheless, here we are.

Baltimore’s win against Kansas City was huge, but it means nothing if they go into Detroit and lose to the Lions. I’m sure that mantra has been stated over and over again this week at the castle.

When betting, you look for teams coming off big wins and watch out for a letdown. Even though the Ravens are coming off that huge high in Week 2, I don’t think the coaching staff will allow them to bask in the glory for very long and they’ll be focused on getting the job done in Detroit.

As they’ve done to the majority of the NFL, the Ravens will run the ball down the Lions’ throats, control the time of possession, and cruise to a double-digit victory.

Ravens 31 Lions 10

Baltimore is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore.

My Pick: Baltimore -9

BDC Lock of the Week

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, o/u 55)

For my lock of the week, I’m looking at those Chiefs who let one slip away in Baltimore on Sunday night. They’ll no doubt be looking to get back on track against a familiar AFC West team.

Even with the Chiefs’ recent struggles ATS, I still find it hard to pick against them when they’re giving less than a touchdown. Their quarterback and their offense are elite and this is the week they turn around their ATS woes.

Chiefs win, 37-27

Kansas City is 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

My Pick: Kansas City -6.5

We’re off to a great start to 2021 so hopefully we can keep it rolling in Week 3. I’ll be honest though, the lines this week look to be right where they should be which is making it tough to find games I’m in love with. Happy hunting!

Good luck everybody!

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About Drew Kordula

I was born and raised in Baltimore. I'm a graduate of Eastern Tech and UMBC. Baltimore/Maryland sports have always been a huge part of my life. Whether it be going to University of Maryland Football games with my parents as a kid, or climbing to the top of Mt. M&T Bank Stadium for my seats in section 515 today. Most importantly, I'm a father of 3 who keep me plenty busy. I love writing about Baltimore sports because I know how passionate of a fan base we have here. Everyone has an opinion and I invite you to share yours on any of my blogs no matter if you agree or disagree. Feel free to follow me on twitter @DrewKordula More from Drew Kordula
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