Last Week: 1-3-1 (25.0%)
Overall: 14-10-1 (58.3%)
BDC Lock of the Week
Last Week: 0-1
Overall: 3-2 (60.0%)
Week 5 Whiffs:
— Baltimore’s defense was a sieve, but they were ultimately bailed out by a second half for the ages from Lamar Jackson. They still didn’t cover…
— Minnesota was in a sold spot to cover late in the game. Then they tried to give the game to the Lions and almost succeeded.
Through Week 5, here are the ATS Rankings:
As always, here is probably the most important line that you will read:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Hopefully we’ll get this roller coaster back on track in Week 6…
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (-3, o/u 49.5)
Arizona has looked like one of the top three teams in the league to this point of the young season so to see them as a three-point dog is a little surprising and gives me pause about this pick. However, Cleveland is coming off giving up 47 points to the Chargers and if they can’t stop L.A., who’s to say they’ll be able to stop Kyler Murray? I, for one, am not in the camp that thinks they’ll slow Murray down this week, especially if Jadeveon Clowney doesn’t suit up.
So if you’re giving me points, I’m going to take them.
Oh, and I love the over here.
Cleveland is 1-3 ATS in their last four home games. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS on the road this season with a 18.0 average point differential.
My Pick: Arizona +3
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5, o/u 52.5)
I loved Philadelphia last week against the Panthers, but this week is another story. Even with the Eagles’ defense excelling early this season against the pass, Tom Brady and company come at you in so many different ways that even the Eagles’ 3rd ranked pass defense will struggle. The Bucs will get out to an early lead and force Jalen Hurts to do damage through the air. Hurts will be forced into several mistakes which will just compound Philadelphia’s frustrations on the day.
Bucs win by two scores.
Tampa is 12-1 straight up in their last 13 games. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games as an underdog.
My Pick: Tampa Bay -6.5
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Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (+5.5, o/u 54)
The Bills are rolling and this is a prime spot for a letdown after an emotional win against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football…but I don’t see that happening against this week against the Titans.
We all know how dangerous this Bills offense can be, but it’s the defense that has surpassed expectations. Just look at the rankings below across the board. They don’t rank below 9th in any statistical category listed and are in the top five in all but one. That is incredible even at this juncture of the season and there’s no reason to believe that train stops this week in Tennessee.
Buffalo is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games. The Titans are 1-3 ATS in their last four prime time games.
My Pick: Buffalo -5.5
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Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3, o/u 52)
The Ravens’ defense had a terrible game on Monday night and they get no reprieve this week against Justin Herbert. He may hang 70 on the Ravens and their 29th ranked pass defense if Baltimore plays as they did against the Colts. Although I’m being facetious, the truth is, the Ravens need to get A LOT better on all levels of their defense if they want to make a run at a Lombardi in 2021/22.
We’ve all watched the Ravens and the NFL enough to know that things change week to week. With this team, that seems more realistic than ever so it would be a lie for me to sit here and tell you what you’re going to get this week. Based off the last few games, it’s hard for me to pick the Ravens in this spot. They’re coming off an emotional Monday night game where their defense was exposed and Herbert has to be licking his chops watching tape of Anthony Averett “try” to cover anybody with a horseshoe on their helmet.
From a betting perspective, I’m going to stay far, far away from this game. If you force me, I do like the Chargers in this spot to eek out a close win against the Ravens. I don’t think Super Lamar will be able to come to the rescue again in Week 5.
Chargers 27 – Ravens 24
Los Angeles is 6-0 straight up in their last six games against AFC opponents. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
My Pick: Los Angeles +3
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BDC Lock of the Week
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins (+6.5, o/u 55.5)
So we meet again Kansas City. I try to stay away, but Vegas keeps pulling me back. A week after Washington lost by double-digits to a team led by Jameis Winston, they’ll get a Chiefs team that badly needs a win and are getting less than a touchdown. I love Kansas City in this spot.
The Chiefs defense has been bad, like historically bad, but they should be able to right the ship just a bit against Taylor Heinicke. Patrick Mahomes will do Patrick Mahomes things and score at will on a struggling Redskins’ defense as the Chiefs roll in Week 6.
Kansas City is my lock of the week.
Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in their last six games. The Redskins are 1-5 straight up in their last six home games.
My Pick: Kansas City -6.5
Early in the Sunday games, I was sitting at 0-3, then that quickly moved to 3-0 and things were looking up, but the wheels fell off in the second half of most of the games and I’m limping into Week 6. Hopefully things turn around this week.
Good luck everybody!
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