Week 10: 3-2 (60.0%)
Overall: 26-22-1 (54.2%)
BDC Lock of the Week
Last Week: 0-1
Overall: 6-4 (60.0%)
Through Week 11, here are the ATS Rankings:
As always, here is probably the most important line that you will read:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Trying to get back on a roll here in Week 12…
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Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, o/u 51.5)
The Cowboys come limping into their Thanksgiving matchup with the Raiders. They’ll be without Amari Cooper once again and will also, most likely, be without CeeDee Lamb. That won’t matter this week as Ezekiel Elliott will feast (pun intended) on the Raiders’ 29th ranked rush defense. I think this game will be relatively close until the fourth quarter where the Cowboys will pull away and win by double-digits.
Las Vegas is 0-3 ATS in their last three games. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
My Pick: Dallas -7.5
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints (+6, o/u 45.5)
As one of the early season Super Bowl favorites, the Bills have faltered of late. However, they need this win and have done well following losses going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a loss and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of 14 or more points. With Alvin Kamara very questionable this week, I like the Bills to cover the six points easily in the Big Easy.
New Orleans is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. The Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games.
My Pick: Buffalo -6
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers (+1, o/u 47.5)
The Packers ride a perfect 4-0 home record into this potential NFC playoff matchup. Although the Rams have been struggling of late, I love them in this matchup because I believe the injury to Aaron Rodgers‘ toe is being underplayed and L.A. has the horses to make his life miserable on Sunday. In what is essentially a pick-em, I’ll take the Rams.
The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Green Bay is 10-1 straight up in their last 11 home games.
My Pick: Los Angeles -1
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (+3, o/u 52.5)
The Colts are a team that has been trending up over the past few weeks as they have won five of their last six games. They’ll get a true test here in Week 12 against the defending Super Bowl Champs.
Indianapolis’ recipe for success is pretty simple. They need to run the ball effectively and if they do, everything else falls into place. That will be a challenge as the Bucs rank 1st in the NFL in rushing defense only allowing 78.4 yards per game. With that said, I see the Colts running the ball well enough in this matchup to keep Tampa’s defense on their toes and keep this game close. I like the Colts to cover, and I absolutely LOVE the under in this game.
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
My Pick: Indianapolis +3
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-4, o/u 45)
If you have ANY idea what’s going to happen in this matchup, you’re lying to yourself. Nothing has come easy for either of these teams this season and I don’t foresee that changing this week.
The Ravens should get Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown back this week after deciding to keep them out for the game in Chicago. That will give a much needed boost to this Baltimore offense at the skill positions, but with the offensive line continuing to struggle, all bets are off.
On the Cleveland side of things, Baker Mayfield continues to play through numerous injuries to the detriment of the Browns. If they’re unable to run the ball against the Ravens’ 2nd ranked rush defense (I know, I was surprised at that ranking too), it could be lights out for Mayfield in this one. I wouldn’t be surprised if Case Keenum made an appearance.
Ultimately, I have no idea who to take in this one. The Ravens at -4 seems just about the right number to me. I think this game will be just as ugly as the past month has been for both teams, but I’ll take the Ravens to win by a score. I also LOVE the over.
Ravens 30 – Browns 24
Cleveland is 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Sunday Night Football.
My Pick: Baltimore -4
BDC Lock of the Week
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (+3.5, o/u 45.5)
I’m going to the NFC (L)East for my lock of Week 12. Philadelphia has been playing extremely well which is in direct correlation to the play of their quarterback, Jalen Hurts. Hurts has been getting it done mainly on the ground and has this Eagles’ offense humming. It kind of smells like an offense we’re familiar with doesn’t it?
The Eagles will keep their momentum going and take home a big division win.
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six divisional games.
My Pick: Philadelphia -3.5
I hope you all have a wonderful Thanksgiving!
Good luck in Week 12 everybody!