Week 10: 3-2 (60.0%)
Overall: 33-31-1 (51.6%)
BDC Lock of the Week
Last Week: 0-1
Overall: 6-7 (46.2%)
Week 14 Whiffs:
— Yet another whiff on my lock of the week. In what was a big game for Cincinnati to potentially take a lead in the AFC North, they squandered the chance in overtime.
— The Ravens’ game looked like a guaranteed Cleveland cover early, but they clawed their way back and barely squeaked out a half-point cover.
Through Week 14, here are the ATS Rankings:
As always, here is probably the most important line that you will read:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Onto Week 15…
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (-2, o/u 46)
I was very surprised to see New England as the underdog in this game. They have been one of, if not the, hottest teams in the NFL.
If there’s one thing that Bill Belichick has always been good at, it has been taking away the other team’s biggest strength. In Indianapolis, that strength is easy to identify: Jonathan Taylor. He’s had an incredible sophomore season and has vaulted himself into the MVP conversation. If Belichick has his way, Taylor will be rendered useless and Carson Wentz will be forced to win this game for the Colts.
If that happens, and I think it will, the Patriots will win this game outright. Wentz will not be able to carry the load.
I like the Patriots by 3.
New England is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. The Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
My Pick: New England +2
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (-5.5, o/u 45)
The Rams have owned the Seahawks in L.A. of late and are coming off a huge win in Arizona. I feel fairly confident in this pick, HOWEVER, if COVID takes out any more members of the Rams, that confidence will start to waver. At this point, with the roster that we know will be available on Sunday, I like the Rams to cover at home and win by a touchdown.
Seattle is 1-6 straight up in their last seven games in L.A. The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
My Pick: Los Angeles -5.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+5.5, o/u 44)
This is a must-win game for the Vikings who are clinging to slim playoff hopes as it is. If they can bottle up what they did in the first half against the Steelers, they will cruise easily in Chicago. However, there are two halves to each game and if they play as they did in the second-half, the Bears can win this game outright.
I’m going to lean toward the first-half performance a bit here as the Vikings go up against the 24th ranked rush defense. They’ll give a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook and win big in Chicago to keep their hopes alive.
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in their last six December games. The Bears are 7-1 straight up in their last eight games against teams below .500.
My Pick: Minnesota -5.5
Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens (+5.5, o/u 43.5)
This line has moved all over the place. It opened at +2, rose to +7 after the Jackson injury, fell to +4.5, and now sits at +5.5. My initial reaction was that Vegas doesn’t think Aaron Rodgers is going to play. With the way Lamar has played of late and with a bad ankle surely limiting his mobility to some extent, I thought +7 is right where it should have been. So the only logical reason for that kind of movement would be centered around some questions about Rodgers’ availability.
With or without Rodgers, this game screams Ravens cover. I’m not bold enough to pick them to win, but I do think they keep this game interesting. I mean, why wouldn’t a Ravens game in 2021 make us bite our fingernails off?
I can see the Ravens forcing Rodgers to move a bit in the pocket to test the strength of his toe and I also see that causing a mistake or two. That will, at the very least, keep Baltimore alive.
Packers 27 Ravens 24
Baltimore is 10-0 straight up in their last 10 games against the NFC. The Packers are 4-2 ATS all-time against the Ravens.
My Pick: Baltimore +5.5
BDC Lock of the Week
Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills (-11, o/u 44.5)
Just like the Vikings above, Buffalo is in desperation mode. They can’t afford to lose this game at home, and they won’t. With or without Josh Allen, this Bills team is far better than the product the Panthers will trot out in Week 15. Add to that a sense of urgency, and you have yourself a recipe for a blowout. Bills by 20+.
Buffalo is 0-2-1 ATS in their last three home games. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games as an underdog.
My Pick: Buffalo -11
Clawed back a game last week, but lost another lock. There’s always next week…
Good luck in Week 15 everybody!