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Week 16 NFL Picks

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My Picks

Week 10: 4-1 (80.0%)

Overall: 37-32-1 (53.6%)

BDC Lock of the Week

Last Week: 1-0

Overall: 7-7 (50.0%)

Week 15 Whiffs:

— I overvalued New England and their ability to stop Jonathan Taylor. He made me pay, but on the bright side, we had a 4-1 week.

Through Week 15, here are the ATS Rankings:

 

As always, here is probably the most important line that you will read:

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money.  I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along.  I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Feel free to play along, tell me where I’m wrong, post your own picks, or just enjoy the read. Let’s try and keep riding the wave into Week 16…

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Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, o/u 43)

The Bears were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week and while Seattle technically hasn’t been eliminated, the writing is on the wall. Both of these teams have struggled mightily this season, but in what could be the last home games Russell Wilson has in Seattle, I look for him to turn in some strong performances to end his tenure. For that reason, I like Seattle to cover at home, but barely.

Chicago is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. The Seahawks are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games against the Bears.

My Pick: Seattle -6.5

Los Angeles Rams @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5, o/u 49.5)

The Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp connection this season has been something incredible to watch as Kupp is currently on pace to set the single season receiving yards record (albeit with one extra game). This game, however, hinges on the ability of the Rams to stop the Vikings’ run game. If they can at least slow down Minnesota, I think this is an easy cover for the Rams. If they can’t, well, all bets are off.

I do think L.A. will be able to handle Minnesota’s ground game and will be able to score a cover here on the road.

The Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Vikings. Minnesota is 3-7 in their last 10 home games.

My Pick: Los Angeles -2.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (-1, o/u 48.5)

The Colts have been one of the NFL’s best teams over the past few months and the Cardinals have shown weaknesses of late. So I feel like Vegas could be baiting a bit here, but I’m going to take the bait. The mark of a good team is when you absolutely know what they’re going to do, and you still can’t stop them. That’s what seems to be going on with the Colts. Everybody on the planet knows they’re going to run the football, but can you stop them? Over the past two months, not many have and I don’t think Arizona will here either. I like the Colts on the money line.

The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Arizona is 0-3 straight up in their last 3 home games.

My Pick: Indianapolis +1

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Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3, o/u 45.5)

With COVID continuing to be an issue with the Ravens, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if this game isn’t played on Sunday. If it is, we have no idea at this point who will be available. With that said, the Ravens have proven over the past few weeks that the “next man up” mentality is alive and well in Baltimore. They’ve taken Pittsburgh and the best team in the NFC to the brink and have just come up short.

The Bengals have struggled of late, but with the Ravens’ secondary reeling, they should put up some numbers this week in Cincinnati.

BUT…

This is the AFC North and this is the Ravens so if you still have fingernails, you’re probably in the minority. I don’t feel particularly good either way in this one, but the way Baltimore’s games have played out this season, I’m taking the points if you’re giving them to me.

Baltimore covers, Cincinnati wins and takes control of the division.

Bengals 24 Ravens 23

Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Bengals are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 home games.

My Pick: Baltimore +3

BDC Lock of the Week

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-2.5, o/u 43.5)

The rematch and also my lock of the week. A few weeks ago, New England defeated Buffalo 14-10 by having Mac Jones only throw the ball three times. That may have gotten it done in the terrible weather that night, but it won’t here in Week 16. I absolutely love the Bills here in this spot to not only cover, but win outright.

Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC. The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

My Pick: Buffalo +2.5

Week 15 was the first really solid week I’ve had in awhile so it’s nice to get some breathing room above .500 again.

Good luck in Week 16 and I hope you and your family have a Merry Christmas!

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