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Playing the “What If…” Game for Ravens Roster Construction

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With free agency set to kick off in less than a week, and the NFL Draft combine officially in the books, it’s time to start mapping out player acquisition and roster building scenarios. This is the most fun part of the NFL offseason.

Gaining inspiration from the Orlando Brown Jr. “what-if” article published during the 2021 season, RSR writers James Ogden and Dev Panchwagh combined forces to forecast five different free agency and draft combinations for the Ravens based on projected salary cap means and current draft positioning.

Note: This writeup will not include the strategy for retaining free agents like Calais Campbell, for example. We are only looking at possible large or mid-size additions the team could make, and the direct impact of those signings on their first and second-round draft selections in April. 

With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s journey into the mystery of “what if”…

Scenario 1: What if…the Ravens sign Ryan Jensen, draft Sauce Gardner in the first round, and draft Daniel Faalele in the second round?

Signing Jensen at Center: The ‘Why’ from Dev

When Ryan Jensen signed with Tampa Bay four years ago, he earned a little more than $10 million per season. After earning All-Pro honors and winning a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers, he’s now one of the best in the game, so that price tag has gone up.

Would Jensen come back to Baltimore on a home-town discount? It doesn’t seem likely, as initial rumors are he wants to be the highest-paid center in the game. There are ways to accommodate both interests if DeCosta wants to make this happen, by structuring Jensen’s deal with a back-loaded approach in which the highest cap hits carry over into latter years when the salary cap will increase.

At the age of 30, Jensen is playing his best football, so the concern he might be slowing down isn’t fully baked. Signing him would provide an upgrade at the position while also adding some much-needed edge – we all know Jensen is a brawler who plays through the whistle. It would also help stabilize one more position along the offensive line heading into the draft.

Knowing Jensen as a player and person is also a major benefit when you consider the case to bring him back. It’ll be interesting to see how both sides proceed given the salary demands and stiff competition (The AFC North rival Bengals and Steelers are among the teams rumored to be interested).

Drafting Gardner/Stingley Jr. and Faalele: The ‘Why’ from James

The beauty of addressing the Offensive Line in free agency with Jensen is that it frees the Ravens up to focus on getting a talented player at 14 rather than chasing a glaring need. Of course, Offensive Tackle is still a need for this team. If Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal or Charles Cross are still on the board, then the Ravens should give them serious consideration.

But it’s well documented now that you don’t have to fill your offensive line with an unkindness of first-round offensive line picks (I’m choosing to use the collective noun for ravens to refer to a group of Offensive Linemen, appropriately I think). Of the 25 OL starters from the previous 25 Super Bowl-winning teams, only three were homegrown, first-round picks (credit: Daniel Jeremiah).

Daniel Jeremiah tackles tweet
Twitter.com/movethesticks

On top of that, addressing the center position in free agency seems smart when put in the proper context – that of this draft class. Tyler Linderbaum is the only center worthy of a high pick, and if you’re rooting for him to be a Raven, you’re doing him a disservice. By far and away his best fit in the league is with a team that runs a majority of zone concepts in its running game, mixing in some gap principles from time to time. The Ravens are the opposite of this, and Linderbaum in Raven purple would be a waste of his considerable gifts.

If you want to be selfish and take him anyway, he’s not a generational enough prospect to rebuild your entire offensive identity around, and his lack of fit with the Ravens will mean there are at least 14 other players they will prioritize above him.

This draft scenario simulates a slide for one of the best CBs in the class to 14 in Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, but this could just as easily be Derek Stingley Jr. instead. The Ravens pull off the most “Ravens move” of the draft and arrest the slide of a talented, falling defensive stalwart. Gardner fits what the Ravens do perfectly and you could combine him with Marlon Humphrey and a returning Marcus Peters to make a formidable trio on the back end.

In the second round, the Ravens grab one of the many intriguing developmental offensive linemen in this class – there are many – and it’s why you might see them wait to address one of the most pressing offseason concerns. You can likely rely on Daniel Faalele in some guise on day one but he will need time to reach his cavernous ceiling. My opinion – you can rely on Pat Mekari if you need him at RT. So, if you feel good about Ronnie Stanley’s recovery, this approach can work.

Tyrann Matthieu
Twitter/@PFF

Scenario 2: What if…the Ravens sign Marcus Williams or Honey Badger and Trade up for Ikem Ekwonu?

Signing Williams or Mathieu at Safety: The ‘Why’ from Dev

Signing Marcus Williams from the Saints or Tyrann Mathieu (Honey Badger) from the Chiefs would be a monster move by Eric DeCosta and the front office. Based on the contract Denver gave Justin Simmons last year ($16 million per year), both safeties are in line to earn around the same salary or at least close to the same adjusted average per year (APY).

Williams is a more traditional center fielder and he is also younger than Mathieu, which makes him possibly more attractive. However, Honey Badger might just be a more natural style fit for the Ravens’ defense. He can play various positions, including slot corner, but he can also play both safety positions, which would be a major scheme edge for the Ravens. New defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is all too familiar with having a safety who can be deployed anywhere – Daxton Hill was his chess piece at Michigan. Imagine Mathieu and Brandon Stephens playing together and providing incredible coverage disguise options.

Mathieu remains one of the game’s most dynamic playmakers and turnover generators, which has to be a consideration for DeCosta given the defense sorely lacked that ability in 2022. Adding a ballhawking safety would help the team take a significant step forward in closing that playmaking, turnover-generating gap.

Drafting Ekwonu and Trading Away a Second-Round Pick to Move Up: The ‘Why’ from James 

Kyle Hamilton is the only safety that I’ve graded out as amongst the top 14 players in the class and he won’t be available for the Ravens. His 40 time will not change how bullish teams will be on his potential. His explosion and processing help to give him alluring play speed and range that many teams will covet.

But a big, expensive signing like Williams or Mathieu would constitute a pushing-in-of-the-chips by DeCosta and company. That might be paired with a splash-y draft move to cement the Ravens’ status as AFC contenders. Clearly, teams trade up for quarterbacks; they also trade up for offensive weapons like wide receivers.

There is an offensive “weapon” in this class that suits the Ravens perfectly and might be worth a trade-up. Weapons are dangerous. They can, and often do, cause significant harm.

Under that definition, Ikem Ekwonu is most definitely, a weapon.

The mammoth Offensive Tackle from North Carolina State ticks numerous Ravens fit boxes, including a scheme fit that would allow him to contribute on day one. His ceiling and his likely immediate impact mean a trade-up scenario where the Ravens give away their second-round pick, and possibly more, for a sliding Ekownu is one that the front office should visualize.

Ekwonu would change the nature of this offensive line overnight and set a tone that has been somewhat missing since Marshal Yanda retired. But, they would have no second-round pick in a deep class, which might end up being a deal-breaker for them.

Mike MacDonald
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY Sports

Scenario 3: What if…the Ravens sign Emmanuel Ogbah, draft David Ojabo in the first round and draft Jamaree Sayler in the second round?

Signing Ogbah at Defensive End: The ‘Why’ from Dev

Every once in a while, DeCosta and the Ravens pull a sneaky free-agent signing. Defensive tackle Michael Brockers was that guy who came out of nowhere in 2020, although he failed a physical and never played a down for the team. Ozzie Newsome had his share of sneak attacks as well – remember the Trevor Pryce signing in 2006? Emmanuel Ogbah actually reminds me of Pryce in many ways and would offer some of the same traits.

The former Dolphin is long, lean and a true five technique who can slide inside and rush the passer in four-man passing fronts. Ogbah also has the “tweener” type size to line up elsewhere along the front and a creative defensive coach – ahem, Mr. Mike Macdonald – could move him and use him in various ways in the stunt game.

The main reason Ogbah makes a ton of sense for Baltimore is he can generate consistent interior pass rush pressure. He’s coming off back-to-back seasons with nine sacks for Miami. He doesn’t have the name recognition of Chris Jones, but they offer a similar pass-rush impact. At 28 years old, Ogbah is a late bloomer who is figuring out how to use his raw physical ability to win one-on-one matchups.

He signed for a little over $7 million per season on his last deal with Miami. Expect that price tag to hover in the $14-$15 million APY range for a coveted skillset.

However, part of me believes this move has DeCosta’s name written all over it. Especially if it means filling a hole along a defensive line that badly needs reconstruction and a pass rush jolt.

Drafting Ojabo and Sayler: The ‘Why’ from James 

The Ravens won’t think as fans do, salivating over the prospect of free agency before moving on to consider what the draft could bring them in April. It will be a joined-up, holistic, player acquisition strategy (look at me with my fancy phrasing for it) that considers free agency and the draft in tandem.

In this scenario, the Ravens clearly identified the defensive front as worthy of the greatest investment of their off-season resources, and it does make sense. Ogbah would give you a potential five technique and versatile piece. It would give the Ravens the luxury of taking David Ojabo in the first round, knowing that he, with his serious pass rush chops, could enter a defensive front rotation that could become one of the most feared in the league.

My evaluation of Ojabo doesn’t preclude him from an early full-time role in a scheme like the Ravens run. I think he can set a disciplined edge from a two-point stance already, and can work his way up to being an Oweh-level run defender, although the Ravens may never need him to be. His ability, now, as a pass-rusher, in terms of his array of moves and ability to put them together in a plan, outstrips Oweh.

But this kind of investment in defense would need an over-correction in the second round to focus on the Offensive Line, with Jamaree Salyer. This might be a little early for him for many, but not for me when considering him in the Ravens’ heavier gap scheme. He’s a great fit and his deficiencies in positioning as a run-blocker are more technical when gap blocking, and the Ravens will believe they can get the best out of him. There’s the added bonus that I wouldn’t rule him out of playing Right Tackle either so he could be a versatile piece for the OL.

training camp review
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

Scenario 4: What if…the Ravens sign Za’Darius Smith or Haason Reddick, draft Devonte Wyatt in the first round and draft Tyler Smith in the second round?

Signing Smith or Reddick at Edge: The ‘Why’ from Dev

At the time of this article being published, former Raven Za’Darius Smith was all but guaranteed to be released by the Green Packers to save roughly $15 million in cap space, opening the door for a possible reunion. As soon as Smith threw up the emoji eyes on his Instagram weeks back, current Ravens Marlon Humphrey and Patrick Queen did the same in response.

Smith is coming off a season in which he only played one regular season game due to a back injury. He returned in the playoffs, recorded a sack against San Francisco, and looked just as explosive as ever. However, at the age of 29 with a back injury history, what’s the risk factor?

Smith the player has evolved into one of the most dominant pass rushers in the game. He can rush from a stand up position, rush inside with his hand down, he can even rush from the nose. His versatility is incredible and he can get to the quarterback with or without a free rush.

If a team (the Ravens being one) isn’t scared off by the back, he should still be in that $16.5 million APY territory he was in when he left in 2019. Like Jensen, the Ravens also know Smith, so there is a significant advantage in having that intel. If he’s healthy, it’s a no-brainer to go after him.

Haason Reddick is a really interesting use case as well. The Ravens were interested in him last year but he ultimately signed a one-deal with Carolina. He then proceeded to record double-digit sacks for a second season in a row. Reddick is younger than Smith and he doesn’t have any health concerns.

The money will likely be about the same. Reddick doesn’t offer the same outside/inside versatility as Smith. He’s at his best rushing from the edge position, so is he a good fit in Macdonald’s system which demands being multiple? It’s a fair question but Reddick would check a lot of boxes, and getting an elite pass rusher in his prime is rare.

Drafting Wyatt and Smith: The ‘Why’ from James 

One thing the Ravens do some of with their defensive front, and could do a lot more of, is run a 4-3 under. A 4-3 under front, the more I think about it, matches the Ravens’ personnel well and would allow some of their best pieces more of a chance to shine. Tyus Bowser playing in the Sam position in a 4-3 under would be a perfect fit. Calais Campbell if he’s re-signed and Za’darius Smith rotating at the 5 technique, Odafe Oweh and Za’darius or Haason Reddick rotating on the edge would make a fearsome three-headed monster to contend with.

If you believe that Justin Madubuike could play the shade nose tackle – he has continued to improve taking on double teams – then you can enter the star of this particular show with the 14th overall pick.

Devonte Wyatt should have been the star of the combine with his performance athletically at his size, but he was overshadowed by the guy whose literal shadow he played in most of his Georgia career – Jordan Davis. But nonetheless, Wyatt is a special talent and near unblockable in one-on-one matchups inside. There are improvements I’d like to see him make to his game, which you’ll be able to read about in my report on him in Ravens Draft Central, but he would undoubtedly provide a real interior pass-rush presence from the three-technique position.

The 4-3 under front is designed to get your three technique one-on-one matchups, which he must win for the scheme to be successful. Based on his film, I’m betting on Wyatt every day and twice on Sundays to win those matchups snap in and snap out. This whole move would be predicated on getting more interior pass rush; they would need a stud 3 technique Defensive Tackle to do it, and Wyatt has that potential.

I have to credit Michael Crawford with turning me on to Wyatt’s full potential. I always saw the explosive pass-rush upside but had diminished his potential with the Ravens in mind, due to the lack of schematic fit. But the Ravens do run a multiple defensive front and perhaps more so with Macdonald, who has shown a willingness to adapt more to personnel and opponent than the Ravens had under Wink Martindale. They could commit to running more 4-3 under and other creative ways to scheme up one-on-one matchups for their interior defensive linemen, especially when adding a player like Wyatt.

In the second round the Ravens would need to get back to the offensive line and in this scenario take Tyler Smith from Tulsa. He’s a perfect fit with the Ravens, you can give him a chance to play OT first but I do think his floor is a very good guard (or even center, though he hasn’t played the position before so would have a learning curve there) in the league and a guy that will maul people in the Ravens’ gap-heavy run scheme.

Trent Brown Patriiots
chowderandchampions.com

Scenario 5: What if…the Ravens sign Trent Brown, draft Garrett Wilson or trade down for Daxton Hill and draft Phidarian Mathis in the second round?

Signing Trent Brown at OT: The ‘Why’ from Dev

One of the frequent discussions amongst fans and media is that the Ravens “must” draft an offensive tackle. But do they really? There are many avenues to address this need, and one of the more fun paths is signing a veteran like Trent Brown from the Patriots. There is precedent by the way for Baltimore signing a vet tackle to address the problem – Willie Anderson, and Bryant McKinnie are two of the best examples I can think of immediately. Brown mirrors those players in quality and tangible reliability. When Brown is on the field, he’s a proven Pro Bowl right tackle and has the versatility to deliver quality play at left tackle, which is a rarity.

The concern with Brown is reliability as it relates to durability. He is coming off back-to-back seasons in which he didn’t start in more than nine games. That’s a legitimate concern for a team that struggled with offensive line injuries last year and needs a rock-solid option they can depend on each week.

Still, Brown’s price tag is likely to land in the cheaper zone than the other free agents we’ve discussed – somewhere around $10 million APY would do the trick. Add Brown and you have coverage in case left tackle Ronnie Stanley isn’t healthy. If Stanley is healthy, you can keep him at the right tackle spot, use Patrick Mekari as a swing player (or even move him to an interior line position), and you have a stronger front line with better depth and talent across the line.

Drafting Wilson/Hill and Mathis: The ‘Why’ from James 

Addressing Offensive Tackle in free agency really opens up the draft for the Ravens. With all four previous scenarios, I’ve ensured the Ravens come out of the first two rounds with an offensive tackle. In this scenario, we can start to really have some fun.

At pick 14, the Ravens are close to a tier break in this class but for me, it undoubtedly comes after their pick. Addressing their most glaring need in free agency gives them a chance to wait on a great player falling to them regardless of position. In this scenario, it’s a wide receiver.

I’ve already written extensively about Treylon Burks this off-season and what a weapon he could be for a run-first team like the Ravens. But I also like another wide receiver in this class: Garrett Wilson. We know the Ravens are very happy to take wide receivers in the first round under DeCosta, and while I still believe in the potential of Hollywood Brown Rashod Bateman, Wilson is a different class of receiver than the Ravens are used to seeing on the board.

He gets off press, is a very good separator, and is a catch-point extraordinaire with elite body control. While I believe in Burks’ potential, I am projecting his impact at the next level. With Wilson, you can see it more clearly on film. He’s got a chance to be special and the Ravens could always stand to add more and more weapons to this offense to keep pace with the Bengals, Chiefs and Bills.

If you’re not into that, then a trade back in the first round could allow the Ravens to add even more picks in this deep draft class on Day 2 and early on Day 3. A trade back would also allow them to target one of my favorite players in the class — Daxton Hill from Michigan.

Hill screams Raven on his film at Michigan. He has the range to play a true free safety spot but he also has the intelligence, athleticism and versatility to play all over the defensive formation and do a bunch of different things for this defense. He would be a weapon that Mike Macdonald already knows how to deploy from their time together at Michigan.

We know the Ravens need to get younger on the defensive line, so in this scenario, they come back in the second round and take Phidarian Mathis from Alabama. Mathis isn’t nearly as flashy as some of the other interior defensive linemen that could be taken early in this draft, but he plays like a Raven now and would be a solid two-gapper with a little bit of pass-rush upside that would plug in and play for the next ten years on the Ravens front.

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