Ravens Pass-Catchers Through Week 5
Divisional dogfight.
There’s no such thing as an “easy” game in-division. Unless a divisional opponent is completely imploding, they are going to play you tough as nails. They know you better than anyone, they have pride. I’m not sure an in-division loss is ever an “upset.” Look at Kansas City in 2019 and ‘20 – then they were Super Bowl-bound Kansas City but still lost games to inferior Raiders and Chargers teams. The Belichick & Brady Patriots would lose in Miami. It happens.
If the opponent is actually good, that makes it that much harder. The Bengals, coming off a Super Bowl appearance, are good. Very dangerous. Joe Mixon is excellent. Ja’Marr Chase is ridiculous. ou Anarumo’s defense is talented, smart, and hard-hitting.
(Somewhere on the RSR board, there’s a post I made when Zac Taylor first filled-out his Bengals coaching staff, where I said that Anarumo was probably a clown in over his head. File that away with the legion of other takes of mine that have not aged well.)
The stats are not going to look great from this game. Nothing could matter less. Style points do not matter in-division.
The same logic that said “go-for-it” last week, said “take the points” this week
There’s a small block of Ravens fans on Twitter who’ve said that John Harbaugh “learned his lesson” after the Week 4 Bills game, and thus took the points this week.
That’s not true. The exact same logic that led Harbaugh to choose to go for it on 4th-&-goal in the 4th quarter last week, led him to take the points this week. How could that be? It’s all about the score.
When examining the situations, it’s easiest to see the logic at work if you assume the opponent will get a touchdown on their next possession. Remember, against the Bills the Ravens were TIED when Harbaugh elected to go for it. If they take a three-point lead, and remember we are assuming the Bills score a TD on their next possession, then when the Ravens get the ball back after that, they would be down four. A Field Goal would not win it for them.
Completely different situation against the Bengals. The Ravens already had a three-point lead. If they kick the FG, they go up six. Then if they give up a TD on the next possession (which is what happened), when they get the ball back a Field Goal would win it for them. And did.
In both games Harbaugh tried to set up a situation where, if the other team scored a Touchdown, the Ravens could get the ball back needing only a Field Goal to win.
Would this be easier to see in a table? Here’s a table:
Against the Bengals, Harbs didn’t need a TD to win, because he already had the three-point lead and could get two FGs to the Bengals’ one TD.
Against the Bills, Harbs did need a TD to win, so he went for one. And don’t tell me he didn’t need a TD to win: I saw the Bills offense go thru the Ravens defense like a hot knife through butter after the interception in the end zone. As the game played out he definitely did need a TD. But Harbs was also banking having the Bills backed-up on their own two, should the attempt fail. That’s a much better situation for getting a stop than what actually played out, when Lamar Jackson threw an INT and the Bills got a touchback.
Harbs didn’t learn anything 🙂
Same logic path, different score situation → different decision.
Why Lamar put on the extra muscle this offseason
Check out this play:
This throw was utterly insane to watch in person. I had the view of it in front of me from the upper deck and we were sure it was going to be picked off. pic.twitter.com/NoRPQC7Ez9
— Jake (post no bills) (@jakelouque) October 10, 2022
A defender makes contact, actually has his arm wrapped around Lamar’s waist and is pulling on him. Lamar still has the core strength & body control to complete this pass between three defenders. The ball wobbles, but it gets there.
THIS is why Lamar put on all that extra muscle this offseason. To make this exact play. After a year of getting clobbered behind a suspect O-line, and running for his life practically every play, Lamar decided he needed a little more oomph to shake off defenders in the pocket. So he got some.
That’s what I think, anyway.
Here are your receiving stats for Sunday’s game:
The passing attack was highly concentrated, as you’d expect with Rashod Bateman out. Lamar depended heavily on his top two guys. The “supporting” targets were spread out among the role players, a couple apiece.
Just another day at the office for Mark Andrews. Making greatness look routine. The rock on which Greg Roman has built his church. Any other pretentious quotes you can think of? Andrews deserves them all.
Duvernay’s best day on offense as a pro. He’s had bigger days in total yardage because of all the big gains he breaks off in the return game. But for receiving & rushing yards, this is it. In addition to the five catches, Duve also rushed three times for 24 yards. His step forward might be the biggest story of the Ravens offense this year. With Bateman in the lineup, Duve had provided the 3rd threat that diversifies the offense and punishes defenses for over-focusing on Andrews & Bateman. That’s why he was perfect and high-efficiency thru the first three games. With Bateman out of the lineup, Duvernay stepped up as a versatile chain mover. By the way, he just turned 25 last month.
These stats, and Lamar’s, look very different if Lamar had been on-target with either of the bombs to Tylan Wallace or Duvernay.
James Proche gets on the board! It’s good to see him back in the mix. He was held out of games two and three with a groin; his 18 snaps on Sunday represent his season high, more than Wallace or Isaiah Likely. We’ll see if he figures significantly in the Ravens plans for this season.
What happens when you catch just about every damn thing thrown to you (85% catch rate, 2nd best among qualifiers), and you gain yardage & score touchdowns? You lead all Wide Receivers in DVOA:
Top WRs by DVOA 💥 pic.twitter.com/zDttAS1lH4
— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) October 11, 2022
Remember DVOA is the Football Outsiders efficiency stat. Not the counting stat, it’s per-opportunity (or per target). This is saying that Duvernay has been the most efficient WR in football, producing when thrown to.
Duvernay & Bateman are ranked #6 and 7 in the league in yards-per-target.
Andrews is 14th in receiving yards among all players, (just) ahead of guys like Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb and Terry McLaurin. He has leap-frogged Travis Kelce again. He’s now #1 in receiving yards among Tight Ends, with Philly’s Dallas Goedert at #2 and then Kelce. Barely 25 yards separate those guys: this is a race that should come down to the wire again if everyone stays healthy.
Lamar is third in the league in TD passes (behind Patrick Mahomes & Josh Allen). His TD% leads the league; that’s the same percentage stat he led the league in 2019. He is making his case. Pay the man!
Next Up: Wink Martindale reunion! The Ravens travel to the Meadowlands to face Saquon Barkley and the New York football Giants.
I am fascinated by this matchup. Ex-Ravens Defensive Coordinator Martindale is now the Giants DC, and there is no defensive coach on the planet who has gotten a longer, more detailed look at Lamar Jackson than Wink has. And at the Greg Roman offense. Wink is a clever, tactically innovative coordinator. How will he decide to attack Lamar??
And how will Greg Roman decide to attack Wink??
Tune in!
3 Responses
Disappointed with your “pay the man” comment. From what I’ve heard, the Ravens are trying to pay him. And it seems they’ve offered him an awful lot of money. Stop acting as if they’re being cheap. If by ,”pay the man” you mean matching the outrageous contract the Browns gave Watson, I say no way in h*ll. The players make a point of saying this is a business, well that goes both ways and giving him $230 mil GARUENTEED would not be a prudent business decision.
Why was my comment not posted?
So you still want to “pay the man”?
Of course I’m sure this comment will be “under moderation ” … and not posted