Oft-Dazzling Jackson Must Recognize When Boring is Better

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 6 Weeks

One of the things you need from your franchise quarterback is “composure.” It’s not just about a big arm and lightning release and pinpoint accuracy and scatback speed. It’s about composure: throwing the ball away, not taking a sack to lose Field Goal position, avoiding turnovers.

This is especially true when you have a team that plays close games and tries to win with defense and ball-control.  Often you’ll have to close out a game when you lead by a Field Goal with four minutes to play. You don’t need to be fancy. You don’t need big plays. The situation doesn’t call for hero ball. You just need to maintain field position and run time off the clock.Grinding out some first downs would be ideal.

Tom Brady is a master at this. A three-yd dink here, a four-yd dunk there, audible to a running play, first down: rinse and repeat. He seems to take a sadistic glee in NOT letting the opposing team have the ball, just making them watch him bleed to clock down to zero.

In Sunday’s game, the Ravens came to the line for 3rd-&-5 at their own 40 with about three minutes left in the game and a three-point lead. Tyler Linderbaum snapped the ball early, before Lamar Jackson was ready. Lamar raced back and recovered the bad snap, then rolled right. His options were to either (a) throw the ball away and punt, (b) eat the ball on a sack for a big loss of yards but still be able to punt, or (c) attempt a high-risk throw into the middle of the field.

He chose poorly.

Lamar creates so much for this team, literally carries it on his back most of the time, that it seems shitty to even formulate the thought, “Lamar Jackson lost the game for the Ravens.”  If it’s true, then stack it on one side of a ledger that has literally dozens of games on the other side. But this play was a bad lapse. And it’s exactly in an area where a good team needs an advantage: composure. I think Lamar sometimes feels pressure to create something extraordinary on every possession. But what a good team often needs is just the solid, basic, competent, boring play. Boring is better, in that situation.

The Ravens rushed for over 200 yards on 8.8 yards-per-carry Sunday. The best skill-position (non-Lamar) player on the field was either Mark Andrews or Kenyan Drake, both of whom were over 100 yards.

The Ravens defense held the Giants under 4.0 yards per offensive play – under 7.0 yards-per-attempt in the pass game, under 2.75 yards-per-carry in the run game – and under 250 yards for the day.

This was a winnable game; in fact, with four minutes left the hay was very nearly in the barn. The Ravens just needed some composure to lock it in.

Lamar knows that as well as anyone. According to ESPN’s post-game reports, he sat with his head in his hands for ~20 minutes after the game, then went around and shook hands with about 20 players. We know that Lamar takes the mental part of the game very, very seriously. He’s sure to bounce back.

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Here are your receiving stats for Sunday’s game:

Have you ever seen a box-score like that? The only passing success was to Tight Ends! Three of them! Five players got three or more targets, but only the Tight Ends did anything with them. To make it more obvious, here are the receiving stats broken out by position group:

That’s really weird. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.

I’m not sure whose “fault” that is. Did Greg Roman’s game plan emphasize the TEs? Did Wink Martindale’s game plan take away the WRs? Did Lamar just not throw to them with accuracy? Did the WRs fail to get open, or drop catchable balls? All of the above? I don’t know. But it does it seem like Lamar has been sailing balls to Wide Receivers the last couple games, on overthrows or just a bit wide. Maybe an issue with stance or follow-through?

The Tight Ends were great, but you can’t sustain a passing offense if you’re getting less than 4.0 yards-per-target from the Wide Receivers. The Ravens were getting more than twice as much on running plays (8.8 yards per carry!)

Andrews’ season-high in yardage so far, and his best game this year by yards-per. There aren’t enough superlatives to describe him.

It could have been more! He had a drop on 3rd-&-10 just after the two-minute warning in the first half, that may have given the Ravens 1st-&-goal at about the Giants five-yard line. Andrews also had one bounce off his chest plate in the end zone, with about 10 minutes left in the 3rd. That one was tipped late by a Giants defender, and Andrews had no time to adjust to the wobble. On both drives the Ravens settled for Field Goals in the Red Zone, in a game they wound up losing by four points.

[Related Video: Why Did Red Zone Offense Fail vs NYG?]

When the Wide Receivers don’t step up, Andrews has to be absolutely perfect for the Ravens to win. Andrews was great on Sunday, utterly great…but he wasn’t absolutely perfect.

We should celebrate Josh Oliver’s first career good (receiving) game, which off-the-cuff I am defining as multiple catches with at least 7.0 yards-per-target. He has started to look like an ascending player. He’s been terrific blocking on running plays, and is now adding the receiving component. Oliver is younger than I remembered: drafted in 2019, he turned 25 in March.

Duvernay’s worst game this season. Only one of the incompletes was catchable, a throw to Duvernay in double-coverage on the right sideline late in the first. That catch was contested, and the defenders got it away from Duve. The other throws were way off-target, behind or beyond him.

Against the Bengals the week before, Roman had schemed touches for Duvernay, with a screen and some rushing plays. Nothing of the sort versus the Giants. Part of that DOES make sense to me. In this league you have to vary your offensive game play from week to week, and Wink’s Giants were going to be alert to Duvernay shifting into the backfield.

But part of it doesn’t make sense. Jet sweeps aren’t a “gadget,” they’re a sound part of an offensive game plan. And Duvernay’s speed makes him a weapon. With a TE-heavy game plan, that sometimes involved personnel packages with three Tight Ends on the field, speed was in short supply for the Ravens offense. It would have made sense to scheme up some touches to challenge the Giants perimeter with Duvernay’s speed. Get him involved beyond just the five mostly-uncatchable targets.

Bateman has held onto the top spot by missing two games, like a baseball player in a batting race who sits out a game versus a tough lefty pitcher and thus keeps a high average. Bateman has fallen of the yards-per-target leaderboard on Pro-Football-Reference. You need to have 1.875 catches-per-team-game to qualify, and Bateman is one catch short (actually 0.25). Hopefully he returns from the sprained foot soon. The Ravens offense needs his speed and playmaking on the field.

Duvernay’s bad day drops him to 19th on the yards-per-target list. That’s still pretty impressive. He’s just ahead of guys like A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, Tyler Lockett.

Andrews is tied with Travis Kelce for 9th in the league in receiving yardage. Kelce has a small edge in yards-per-target, catch%, and total touchdowns. They both made the Pro Bowl last year. That seems like a safe prediction again this season.

Looking at this table, it strikes me that the biggest lack for the passing game is a 3rd wide receiver. Duvernay & Bateman have been productive when targeted. But where is WR3? Demarcus Robinson has not been that guy. He’s made one play so far (the 12-yd TD catch in Week 2). Tylan Wallace & James Proche have done even less.

The Ravens are currently kicking the tires on two players who could address that lack: DeSean Jackson and Andy Isabella. Both are fast. Isabella hasn’t really done anything in the NFL; Jackson is exactly the kind of player Ravens fans have become exhausted with over the years: the over-30, used-to-be-good WR. Jackson is 35.

However!  Here’s the surprising thing: Jackson has actually been productive & efficient in his 30s. Over his last four seasons, Jackson is over 11 yards-per-target. He was still making big plays last year: in limited use he had 22.7 yards-per-catch, with plays of 75 yards and 56 yards.

Desean is NOT an every-down player, at age 35. But the Ravens don’t need him for an every-down role. Bateman (if healthy) and Duvernay are handling the every-down responsibilities. What they need is a guy who can contribute in a limited role, threaten defenses and convert on a few targets. Exactly what he’s been doing the past few years.

I long ago promised myself I wouldn’t buy into the hype on another over-30 Ravens WR acquisition.

But what the hell. Eric DeCosta! I’m ready to get hurt again!

Despite a couple statistically-unimpressive weeks, Lamar still holds some impressive spots on the league leaderboards.  He’s 3rd in TD passes, 2nd in TD%, 5th in QBR. Maybe this week’s two 4th-quarter turnovers mean it’s not the right time for the pay-the-man yell that I have been doing. We’ll just whisper it instead: pay the man.

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So what do we know about this Ravens team, after six games?

Hell if I know. Almost nothing would surprise me. They could rattle off 14 straight wins and stomp into the postseason as the NFL’s hottest team. Or they could self-destruct, go into a tailspin, get John Harbaugh fired and start a new era next year. Anything within that VERY WIDE range of outcomes, looks possible to me.

A couple of positive signs:

1. The Ravens are currently tied for first-place in the division, with a tiebreaker win in-hand vs the Bengals.
2. Of the remaining teams on the Ravens schedule, not a single one currently has a winning record.
3. The Ravens have been getting a slow trickle of players back from injury.

That started with JK Dobbins & Marcus Peters. Ronnie Stanley just played 51 offensive snaps against the Giants (plus three on special teams) and looked great. Bateman might practice this week. We’ve heard that Gus Edwards is on the horizon. On the defensive side, Tyus Bowser and David Ojabo are now practicing. Justin Houston could be in the offing, after missing three games. These are excellent players.

A healthy O-line with Stanley as the cornerstone is probably among the league’s top 5. A healthy RB rotation of Kenyan Drake with Dobbins & Gus would be punishing. A 2-min drill with Bateman, Duvernay and DeSean to go with Andrews would be dangerous.

An edge-rush rotation of Odafe Oweh, Jason Pierre-Paul, Houston, Bowser and Ojabo is formidable. Imagine being able to rush the passer with fresh legs in the 4th quarter. You think the Dolphins & Bills games might have ended differently with that working for the Ravens defense?

By the time they come off the bye, this squad could be a much more dangerous & complete team than the one that opened the season.

Negative signs:

1. The Ravens are 3-9 over their last 12.
2. There have been rumbles of frustration from Lamar, Peters, Marlon Humphrey.

Could go either way, right?  That’s why we watch.

Next Up: Divisional dogfight!  The 2-4 Brownies limp into town.