Tale of the Tape: Defense Can’t Afford to Be Less Than Perfect

The Ravens are 6.5-point underdogs heading into Cincinnati this weekend, and the only way they come out with a win – or even cover the spread – will be another game carried by the defense.

The same will be true in the playoffs as well, with the AFC’s ridiculous gauntlet of elite quarterbacks awaiting a Baltimore defense that has struggled to get off the field and protect a lead all season.

That happened again in Week 17 against the Steelers, and it’s simply not going to fly in the playoffs. Pittsburgh was 10 for 16 on third down and had five drives of 11+ plays, including the first and the last. Those are the two I’m going to break down today to illustrate how the Ravens defense will have to operate with no margin for error in the postseason.

John Harbaugh gave his team an A+ for their effort on Sunday, and I have to agree with him. The Steelers came in clearly motivated to establish the run, and the Ravens front gave everything they had all night to stop that from happening. Baltimore’s DL is deep and talented, but cutting off the head of the snake in Calais Campbell did more damage than I wanted to see.

Najee Harris and Pittsburgh's OL came in ready to set the tone after being held to just 65 yards and 3.3 YPC in December. They fire off the ball but Patrick Queen keeps himself clean to make the stop. pic.twitter.com/0L9bVlGXzY

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 5, 2023

Ravens secondary gets caught unawares on the hi/lo sprintout. Better QBs will make the second level throw for a 1st down, but Pickett still sets up the first of four 3rd-and-shorts on this drive. pic.twitter.com/rFI6Gkxvtx

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 5, 2023

Brandon Stephens gets caught in no-man’s land here, but doesn’t get fully punished for it. Pickett takes the easy yards to set up a 3rd-and-short, but better, more aggressive QBs will push that ball downfield behind Stephens. He played well this game, but he’ll still get targeted in the playoffs when Baltimore’s other corners are Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters.

Pittsburgh then converted on a well-designed fullback run, giving them a new set of downs and an invitation to run the ball against a light Ravens box. It’s only a nice shed by Patrick Queen that keeps this from going for more than 6 yards. Queen struggled in general in this game, but he consistently kept his chest clean and got off blocks quickly even when he was caught out of position.

Chuck Clark closes down a bubble screen to set up another 3rd-and-short. Queen overpursues just enough for Warren to shake free. Not his best game. pic.twitter.com/GcPBv8yQnO

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 5, 2023

But unfortunately for Queen, he was caught out of position too often this game. He reads the play developing just fine, but flies in too fast and makes it too easy for Warren to dart around him.

It’s a good play by both Pickett and Warren, but here’s the thing: to win, the Ravens defense has to consistently play better, even when it’s Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs and Patrick Mahomes lined up across from them.

A pair of textbook stack-and-sheds from Travis Jones and Rayshad Nichols was an ideal way to start the next set of downs, though! Anthony Weaver is going to get a defensive coordinator spot somewhere eventually with how consistently he coaches up young D-lineman every year.

Jet motion comes home to roost. RB in the slot getting motioned over should have been a dead giveaway. pic.twitter.com/BQJ9fOoVNr

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 5, 2023

This is where it started to feel like the Ravens weren’t 100% prepared for this game. The Steelers were consistently using WR jet motion as a presnap decoy, but subbing in Jaylen Warren to be the motion man should have been a dead giveaway that a change-up was coming, not to mention the double tight ends lined up on the left side.

The next set of downs saw two straightforward runs followed by a QB sneak for a 1st down, so we can skip ahead. Pickett kept plays alive with subtle pocket manipulation and footwork all night, but the coverage downfield was usually pretty solid. Notice how Pickett can’t get all the way outside the pocket and tries to hit Harris towards the sideline. That’s going to come back later.

Najee Harris had an excellent game. His vision and balance is so fun to watch, except when he's gashing your favorite team. pic.twitter.com/F3HlpGCP6r

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 5, 2023

Harris somehow avoids a penetrating Justin Madubuike and finds the cutback lane at the same time. His strength and balance in tight quarters makes it so hard to get him for a loss.

Pittsburgh then threw a weird formation at the Ravens to isolate Stephens against George Pickens, but the second-year corner knows exactly what’s coming and stays physical at the catch point to force the incompletion and the field goal.

Good stand, but giving up the yards was a sign of things to come, both with the war of attrition on the ground and Pickett's ability to escape pressure and create plays downfield. Now for the last drive: 11 plays, 80 yards in 3:20 to take the lead.

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 6, 2023

Now let’s fast forward to the Steelers’ game-winning drive. At this point, the Ravens defense is gassed with the time of possession split favoring the Steelers by more than five minutes. What comes next shouldn’t be too surprising, especially against a light front.

Conservative defense has also been a killer in these late-game drives. No one picks up Najee and obviously, he knows how to run with the ball. pic.twitter.com/RKWFJVZ5xk

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 6, 2023

The Ravens’ four-man pass rush couldn’t get home, another worrying trend for the playoffs. Coverage downfield can only hold up for so long, as this drive shows. Either a dangerous checkdown comes free, or an elite QB puts a pass somewhere only his receiver can catch it.

Both of those things happen in a row here. First, Stephens (again!) makes a nice tackle to keep Harris from getting loose in the open field, before Pickett lasers one to his tight end.

Queen looks like he opens up to his left and doesn’t work back to his right where the Steelers have numbers. Roquan Smith also gets too shallow to contain Pickett, letting Pat Friermuth slip behind him.

Pickett is just so calm off-schedule, though Hamilton gets held (and then turned around). pic.twitter.com/xI5gAuKQsn

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 6, 2023

In this Tale of the Tape from last year (also against Pittsburgh), I wrote a section entitled “How the Heck Do You Stop This?” This next throw from Kenny Pickett exemplifies that.

It’s the kind of throw you see Aaron Rodgers make. Sure, Hamilton gets a step behind, but that’s nothing with his speed and length. Pickett somehow fits it in there, and folks, I’m not sure how you stop that.

The Ravens remember getting burned off the jet motion earlier and are ready for it. The play isn't as well-designed, either, so it's a quick stop. pic.twitter.com/0sNeVFWdbA

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 6, 2023

But what the Ravens can stop doing is making the same mistakes. They don’t do that here, triggering on the jet motion quickly to make the stop.

That’s all well and good, but again, when faced with Harris’ playmaking ability, the Ravens just didn’t have an answer. So many RBs get tripped up – or at least slowed down – by multiple linemen blocking their way, but Harris keeps his balance through the hurdle and the ensuing contact. He did this so many times on Sunday. Maddening.

Stephens is again left on an island, this time against Diontae Johnson. He steps up again, really had a solid game filling in for Peters. pic.twitter.com/pQyPGNowKU

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 6, 2023

The Steelers take an end zone shot here and the Ravens are ready across the board, even with a frantic Marlon Humphrey scrambling across the field. Stephens again stays physical at the catch point to close out a strong performance.

The Ravens stuffed Najee on a draw, setting up this 3rd-and-8. Roquan is expecting the sideline throw like the first drive, and Pickett puts it in an almost-impossible spot. Ballgame. pic.twitter.com/AH8qRfa6At

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 6, 2023

But unfortunately, Baltimore’s best effort wasn’t enough. JPP couldn’t keep contain on Pickett – yes, maybe for the reason you think – and Roquan is expecting a sideline pass to Harris like the end of the first drive. He lets Harris go by, and Pickett takes Harris upfield to the end zone with an incredible throw.

That’s the ballgame, folks. When you get no help from your offense – Baltimore drives of 3 minutes, 1 minute, and 2 minutes preceded this – it takes more than just a Herculean effort to get a stop. You need a little luck, too, whether it’s a helpful bounce or your opponent not to be perfect. The Ravens got neither of those things against the Steelers, nor can they expect them in the AFC playoffs.

I hate to say it, but we’re staring down the barrel of another first-round exit. Help us, Lamar Jackson, you’re our only hope.