The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson for their wild card matchup with the Bengals on Sunday, which normally would dash Baltimore’s hopes for a win. But they’re coming off a solid showing against the Bengals – an 11-point loss that felt a lot closer – in which the Ravens actually outgained Joe Burrow and Co., largely due to a stellar defensive performance.
However, Baltimore’s offense was also surprisingly functional with Anthony Brown under center and several key players resting. That may sound like damningly faint praise, but functional with a third-string QB and missing your two best playmakers is not bad for an offense that’s barely been functional all season.
If they can replicate their performance with even one or two fewer mistakes, that might be enough combined with defense, special teams and a little luck to steal a win in Cincinnati.
Let’s dive into some film to see how that might be possible, focusing on two drives: one bad, one good.
The Ravens’ third drive began after the Bengals converted an Anthony Brown interception into a touchdown.
I’m back and forth on who the Ravens should go with at quarterback this week. Huntley says he’s at 90%, so I don’t think health is a concern. Brown throws a nice ball and has a better arm, but Huntley has the experience and seems to operate the running game better, which will be key to winning this game. Let’s take a look.
Ravens' 3rd drive after Brown's 1st pick
Nice run from Gus, but could Brown have housed this if he kept it? pic.twitter.com/Xt6FBIT53y— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
Here, it’s clear that 59 is crashing in on Gus Edwards, but Brown doesn’t keep the ball despite a ton of room to run. This was a recurring theme throughout this game, even though the rookie QB has the legs to pick up yards on the ground.
It’s completely possible that given the uncertainty around both Jackson and Huntley, Brown was instructed to protect himself – especially considering Baltimore’s decision to rest other key players instead of going all-out to win. Even then, with so much space, he can surely get down or to the sidelines before taking a hit.
Moses is too slow off the snap, lets Hendrickson get inside and crash into Cleveland to blow up the play pic.twitter.com/FGGT2ILWvM
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
This next play illustrates how fragile the Ravens offense still is. Just one player has to make a mistake – in this case, Morgan Moses freezing off the snap – and a play gets blown up. That will push Baltimore into more 3rd-and-long situations. Not good.
Down 10-0, it felt like Baltimore needed at least a field goal to stay in this game after Cincy. The offense did not oblige.
Is the ball behind Demarcus Robinson? Yes.
Did it have any business ending up in a Bengal's hands? No.
Robinson had 3 drops on Sunday, more than he's had all season. pic.twitter.com/FrUr7N9mxW— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
Demarcus Robinson had his worst game as a Raven on Sunday, with three drops that more than doubled his total on the year. This ball looks way behind him from the sideline view, but the end zone angle shows that Robinson could have caught this.
Everyone simply has to take care of the ball. That should be the top priority for the offense. The Bengals only scored six points on drives starting in their own territory, so winning the field position battle is one of the biggest things the offense can do to win this game.
The Ravens did muster a 76-yard touchdown drive, proving that this offense can still find ways to move the ball against this Bengals defense.
The Ravens' 5th drive was by far their best. 10 plays, 76 yards and a TD to cap it off.
Again, though, I wonder if Brown could have kept this. pic.twitter.com/V7ArWm864c— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
I think Brown could have kept this for more yards, too. Baltimore’s offense needs the threat of a QB run to succeed. Maybe Brown’s hesitation to run can rope-a-dope the Bengals on Sunday if he or Huntley start to take off?
Having Kevin Zeitler back will also be a boost to the offense. Ben Cleveland is still developing and he especially struggles to find work as a puller, though he did look good in pass protection.
A penalty then a 2nd down incompletion set up this 3rd-and-long that is converted via a roughing the passer penalty on Trey Hendrickson, who continues to drive Brown into the ground. It’s very strange that Hendrickson keeps making plays like this and his teammates insist that the Ravens are playing dirty.
I choose to believe that Anthony Brown saw the holding on Likely and threw to him to draw the flag on 3rd and long. pic.twitter.com/5uErAIwXWs
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
Critics on Twitter noted that this drive wouldn’t have happened without the Bengals committing an unforced penalty, but there were actually two flags on this play. I even think Brown might have noticed that Isaiah Likely was getting mugged off the snap and targeted him to draw the flag from the nearby official. If so, that’s a heads-up throw from the undrafted rookie!
6'1 Eli Apple probably seems pretty tall in person, but man does he look small next to 6'4 Isaiah Likely. Go up and get it! pic.twitter.com/mdTYcsipjP
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
Isaiah Likely just takes this ball away from Eli Apple. He excelled in Mark Andrews’ role, and the Ravens will need to feed him more with the Bengals likely keying on Andrews when he returns. This type of physicality at the catch point is a weakness of the Bengals’ secondary, and Likely is the perfect size to exploit that.
Charlie Kolar is, too, though I’m not sure how much run he’ll get in the playoffs.
Brown has a tendency to stare down his intended target just a tad. Nice debut from Charlie Kolar, though! pic.twitter.com/QUnOXlDatl
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
Brown sees a free blitzer and calmly makes the throw to the open man, but he has to be careful staring down his receivers. The Bengals will be ball-hawking on Sunday.
Here's another case where I think Brown could have kept for more yardage. It's possible he was instructed to protect himself, but the Ravens will need his legs if he's playing on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/QfOO0flFSY
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
Again, Brown should have kept here. The DE across from Josh Oliver crashes inside, and Oliver clearly releases to get upfield. I think Brown is supposed to read that as follows:
- If the DE takes inside leverage on the TE, the TE releases outside and lead-blocks upfield for the QB keeper.
- If the DE stays on/outside of the TE, it’s an easy inside duo run.
The interceptions, keep/read decisions and even the fumble – you cannot hold onto the ball in your own end zone, even for a second – are indicators that Huntley’s experience might be the right thing to lean on in Cincy.
And then Brown pulls off two back-to-back throws that make me rethink things.
First, he scrambles out of a sack and fires in a laser to Kenyan Drake, who can’t hang on with Germaine Pratt getting in the way. Yes, it’s an incompletion, but it’s still a nice off-schedule play from Brown – important considering the results when the Ravens offense stays on schedule.
Two plays here: first, Brown makes a nice throw on the move that Kenyan Drake can't reel in, then Brown hangs in the pocket and delivers a strike to Likely pic.twitter.com/O4zhlEsB4I
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
Then, he goes through his progression through his pocket and delivers an in-stride throw to Likely on 3rd-and-9 to set up 1st-and-goal.
It was at this point that Greg Roman ambled out of his seat in the Ravens’ coaching skybox to a small lockbox in the back of the room, entitled “The Vault.” His assistants looked on in awed reverence as he carried the laminated play sheets glowing with a golden hue back to his seat. When Anthony Brown relayed the play in the huddle, the players smiled. They knew.
The Vault had been opened.
Another set of back-to-back plays, this time with Greg Roman dialing up some trickery – controlled trickery – to actually score a red zone touchdown! Huntley seems to struggle with these but Brown looked very comfortable. pic.twitter.com/cIeh6CWLmu
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 13, 2023
All dramatizations aside, I absolutely loved this play call from Greg Roman. I know that’s blasphemy at this point, but having Brown fake the more difficult flip and hand the ball off is an excellent mix of deception and safety.
Think about the technique. Huntley’s fumble against the Steelers was a fake jet sweep from under center, and his fumble against the Browns was a fumbled handoff jet sweep from the shotgun. In both situations, Huntley’s hands essentially got in the way of the correct exchange of the football. On these plays, Brown fakes a flip in front of him, which is where his hands already need to be to hand the ball off.
Everything Roman has left that Brown and/or Huntley can execute needs to be on the table. No more James Proche deep balls, but a healthy dose of deception isn’t a bad thing. Get the ball in the hands of J.K. Dobbins, Mark Andrews and even Isaiah Likely in creative ways like this, and let them work, because they will be giving everything they have in this game.
This feeds into the QB decision, too. Huntley had slightly tougher plays to execute; I’d imagine he can do what Brown did on these plays just fine. My gut says to go with Huntley’s experience, even though Brown has a higher ceiling of play. If it’s not working with Huntley, though, the coaching staff has to be ready to go to Brown in a must-win game.
Minimizing mistakes, winning the field position battle and a little luck might be enough for the Ravens to ransack Cincy and storm out with a win. There’s no question they’ll go down swinging, and they’ll certainly land a few jabs, but they’ll need one haymaker to get it done. Someone’s going to have to step up, and Lamar Jackson is not coming to save the day.
