When the news broke that the Ravens had extended the non-exclusive franchise tag to Lamar Jackson, I was surprised. Check that – I was shocked.
Two weeks ago, I had a lengthy discussion with a team official and left the conversation with a firm belief that the exclusive tag would be the chosen route. But a lot can and did happen during those two weeks to sway the club’s collective opinion.
Admittedly, I waffled back and forth between the exclusive and non-exclusive as it relates to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. Initially I favored the non-exclusive tag. My rationale was simple. If Lamar and the Ravens can’t find common ground after 2 years of debate, why not let the market determine his value? After all, the Ravens have the option to match whatever is offered to Lamar, right?
If it was only that simple.
The exclusive tag allows the Ravens to control the process in its entirety. Plus the exclusive gives the Ravens the opportunity to acquire even more draft capital and/or players than that which is afforded by the non-exclusive – i.e., two first-round picks, one each in 2023 and 2024. The exclusive also eliminates the possibility of another team inserting poison pills into a new deal for Lamar. Those unsavory tablets might include something along the lines of a roster bonus in 2023 from a salary cap flush team that the Ravens cap could not absorb.
But the Ravens went the non-exclusive route anyway, saving roughly $13M of cap space.
You can rest assured knowing this move was highly calculated. GM Eric DeCosta has spent significant time polling other GM’s about potential trade compensation for Lamar; he’s had discussions about Lamar’s next contract and what teams are willing to pay relative to what the Ravens have offered. What the Ravens have offered is shrouded in mystery but a high-ranking Ravens official shared with me that other teams are going to be surprised by the deal that Lamar has turned down.
And maybe that’s why other teams with needs at quarterback have quickly announced that they don’t plan to pursue Lamar. Maybe they too, look at Deshaun Watson as an outlier. Maybe they aren’t convinced that a quarterback who hasn’t progressed as a passer; who has missed a third of his team’s games the past two seasons; who has but one playoff win, isn’t worth the investment in real dollars, cap space and draft capital that Lamar and his handlers seem to think he is.
Maybe the Ravens offer isn’t the “low ball” others claim it to be.
Many of the national pundits will quickly point out that if Watson, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are worth the contracts that they were paid, then so too is Lamar. The same pundits will further argue that if Watson and Wilson are worth the haul of picks and players that the Texans and Seahawks received in exchange, respectively, then certainly Lamar is worth at least that and CLEARLY worth more than the relatively paltry two first-rounders afforded by the non-exclusive franchise tag.
But is he? Is Lamar worth that money and could he deliver more by trade than Watson or Wilson, relatively speaking?
I’m not so sure.
Big deals like that of Watson and Wilson can define a GM’s career. And so far, those deals look like disasters for the Browns and Broncos. So after seeing that, after seeing their peers risk their futures on such risky, franchise-altering moves, why would other GM’s potentially want to risk making the same egregious mistakes?
That’s why other teams are for the moment, bearish on Lamar. And that’s why the Ravens took the calculated risk associated with the non-exclusive tag.
Maybe EDC knows that the offer that they extended to Lamar is more than fair and that other teams, on the heels of the philanthropy shown by Cleveland and Denver, are NOT willing to give up the same package for a player who still has some question marks.
There are no guarantees that Lamar can match or exceed the accomplishments of his 2019 season. Running quarterbacks don’t get faster as they age. And let’s be honest. Lamar hasn’t progressed as a passer to justify the contract he reportedly seeks; to reconcile the haul of picks and players that most expect from a potential trade.
The market has changed – arguably corrected itself.
But that hasn’t stopped the NFLPA, former players with big social media followings and the Josina Andersons of the world from using the “C-word” – collusion. Look, when housing prices spiked following the pandemic, it was the result of market fluctuations – the ebbs and flows of supply and demand. Why should the demand and corresponding price for players be any different?
Update: The #Commanders are also unlikely to pursue Lamar Jackson, per @ByKimberleyA
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) March 7, 2023
CLIP Undefined with Josina Anderson S3e2: CNN analyst, author & attorney @Bakari_Sellers: Sellers, who's best friends w/Colts CB Stephon Gilmore, gives his opinion on whether the NFL is colluding against Lamar Jackson or not.
P: https://t.co/Rh6g5yUyat
V: https://t.co/bSpuqEGbxk pic.twitter.com/uwFGC7kPVy— JosinaAnderson (@JosinaAnderson) March 9, 2023
What If?
Let’s assume that EDC and the Ravens have savagely uncovered every rock, explored every nook and cranny as it relates to the contractual possibilities with Lamar, and their assessment of his contractual market value is spot on – that theirs is the best deal available to Lamar. And what if he still isn’t happy? He still refuses to accept the deal, opting instead to follow the path carved out by the NFLPA, the destination of which is a 100% guaranteed deal.
Lamar could opt to skip OTA’s and portions of training camp. He could even opt to sit out the season and given this “unicorn” label, which to me describes him as a player and a personality, who knows what he’ll do? Clearly what’s important to the Ravens sits in the back of the bus when compared to what’s important to Lamar. Just ask Sammy Watkins. If Lamar skips a ton of practices, it will undermine the development of offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s offense. If he sits out the season, it will further erode his sinking perception in the marketplace.
Lamar and the Ravens have until July 17th to reach a long-term deal. If they fail to do so, he’ll play under the non-exclusive tag and the two sides can’t resume contract talks until the season is over. If he does sit out all or portions of the season, the Ravens will receive 1/18th of his $32.4M as a cap credit each week he misses. He will not be paid real dollars if he chooses to sit out.
Post-Draft Offer Sheets
Should Lamar sign elsewhere and he does so AFTER the 2023 NFL Draft, the Ravens get no additional draft capital in 2023, assuming they do not match the offer sheet. That would come in 2024 and 2025. It would also open up the possibility of Miami and San Francisco as possible suitors for Lamar since they can’t engage prior to the draft, given that neither has a first-round pick in 2023.
The question has been raised, why don’t all teams interested in signing Lamar just wait until after the draft and preserve their 2023 draft capital? Well, there’s inherit risk in such a strategy.
Keep in mind that signing Lamar will require the interested suitor(s) to set aside ample cap space, cap space that could be used to sign other free agents. By the time the draft rolls around, most of the premier free agents have already signed with other teams. So, what if the interested suitor does set aside the requisite cap space, passes on other free agents since their sites are set on Lamar, and then the Ravens employ their right to match any offer per the non-exclusive franchise tag? Then said suitor(s) would be left high and dry and their offseason roster augmentation plans would be left in tatters.
Leveraging the Non-Exclusive Tag
What if a team goes all-in to sign Lamar and the offer sheet takes the Ravens out of their comfort zone? Adding to the complexity, let’s say the Ravens feel boxed in or they suck it up, restructure some deals, cut or trade other players and decide to match the offer sheet – and then trade Lamar to the team that went all-in to structure the offer? Is it possible under such a scenario that the Ravens could then trade Lamar and get more than the two first-round picks?
For example, let’s assume that Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank decides that Lamar Jackson would change the face, change the fortunes of the Falcons and regardless of what their personnel people think, he demands that they do whatever it takes to dress Lamar in the Falcons’ crimson and black. The Ravens match the offer but Blank presses on, instructing GM Terry Fontenot to get the deal done – make the trade. And then EDC wants not only the first two picks, he wants the Falcons to throw in quarterback Desmond Ridder and cornerback A.J. Terrell.
Could it happen?
Jason Fitzgerald from OverTheCap.com pointed out recently that the CBA seems to include language to provide limitations on the non-exclusive tag.
With respect to a trade involving any non-exclusive rights player subject to a Tender or Qualifying Offer who is a Nonexclusive Franchise Player or a Restricted Free Agent who is subject to a Qualifying Offer with Draft Choice Compensation, the following restrictions shall apply: (i) the Clubs may not agree to draft choice consideration that is greater than the draft choice compensation specified for the Tender or Qualifying Offer; (ii) the trade may not include the acquisition of another player’s Player Contract; and (iii) the player and the NFLPA must approve in advance any such trade that takes place during the Signing Period.
The clause is a bit ambiguous and certainly open to interpretation. Who’s to say when such a trade like the example used involving the Falcons, was actually agreed to? Perhaps some inviting loopholes exist.
A Few Noteworthy Points
• On March 15 (not 3/13) at 4PM, teams can start negotiating an offer sheet with Lamar
• If an offer sheet is signed, Ravens have 5 days to match or receive two first-round picks
• The non-exclusive franchise tender of $32.416M counts immediately against the Ravens Cap but they do not have to be in cap compliance until March 15 at 4PM
And in Conclusion
Organizationally, the Ravens have taken some hits lately. Their inability to get a long-term deal done after two off-seasons with Lamar, has cast a shadow of doubt upon the team’s brain trust. The NFLPA survey hasn’t done much for John Harbaugh’s reputation. But those are just optics, blurred by the uninformed narratives that talking heads both locally and nationally have tossed the Ravens way. Messrs. Bisciotti, DeCosta and Newsome haven’t suddenly lost their groove. Their cheese hasn’t slid sideways off their collective cracker.
The Ravens haven’t earned the reputation as one of professional sports’ most well-oiled machines by happenstance. They’ve earned the accolades. They have all of the data points available, points available to only them; all of the conversations are known only to them. Without perfect knowledge, the criticisms from the outside are nothing more than shots in the dark across the bow; nothing more than fodder for trumped up drama that doesn’t exist but apparently invites clicks and views.
The Ravens could have caved under the media pressure and scrutiny, and given into Lamar’s/NFLPA’s demands. They haven’t because those men, more than anyone else, more than the fans, more than the blathering loudmouths on talk radio, want the organization to achieve long-term success. And they, more than anyone else, have the power to make that happen.
Let them “cook”.
In the meantime, keep your hands inside the cart at all times, and enjoy the ride.
24 Responses
Well said, TL …
Thanks for this cogent assessment, Tony! I’m still of the opinion that no player is worth breaking the bank for, particularly one who has obviously regressed performance wise and has missed significant playing time due to injuries the past two years! Also, one who chose not to accompany his team mates in support of their playoff effort! The game is bigger than any one player…..period!
Another excellent article Tony. I am at the point where I hope LJ finds an offer and we let him go, or better yet, somehow work out a trade and get more than just 2 1st round picks. I am dead sick and tired of hearing the name Lamar Jackson. And if he stays here it’s always going to be about LJ. He’ll probably be pouting now because he’ll feel ” disrespected ” by the Ravens, and we’ll see the same stuff we’ve seen the last 5 years. Missing wide open receivers, poor decisions, and he didn’t seem too motivated to play when he was ” betting on himself ” how motivated will he be when he’s not happy with how he was treated and he’s got $150 – $200 million guaranteed in his bank account??
Excellent article Tony
Maybe it’s just like an iceberg. Seven eights of the cost of Lamar Jackson being your franchise quarterback isn’t visible above water. Maybe the only place Lamar can play the position successfully is Baltimore.
Beyond the money and the contract guarantee issues around signing Lamar, there are structural costs. Any prospective suitor would need to be ready to change everything that came before – offensive philosophy <possibly defensive philosophy too>, supporting player personnel on their roster, the playbook and even their coaching. Nobody is going to be able to do that in just a single off season. And we’ll see if anybody even wants to take a reconstruction project of that magnitude on.
Well thought out and well written like usual Tony. Lamar’s injury history and mediocre passing performance the last 2 years will scare a lot of teams away from LJ. In addition, I believe LJ was giving the middle finger to the Ravens when he tweeted out that he wouldn’t be playing in the Bengals’ playoff game. I truly believe he could have played in the playoff game, but it was another example of giving an F… You to the Ravens. I hope he gets an offer sheet and the Ravens arrange a trade with whatever team is crazy enough to go all in on LJ.
The Ravens know far more than anyone else about what other teams might offer Lamar Jackson. They know the cap limits, etc. of all the other teams. They have taken a carefully calculated risk. I take them at face value that they want to keep Lamar. But obviously everything has its limits, including how much the Ravens would pay. Bidding for Lamar is not just paying his salary, but a substantial cost to rearrange an entire offense to be aligned with Lamar’s skills. I have seen people being excessively critical (even hateful) of Lamar. Very sad. He has every right to see what the market will bear. It is a fair process, as fair as you can hope for. Some people need to be more patient and let the process work. I for one hope that the result is Lamar in a Ravens uniform for the long term.
It is sad that it has come to this. The fans are pretty polarized when it comes to Lamar and he is looking out for #1 as all of us do for our families sake.
You mentioned soft conversation with other GMs – that would be a violation correct? It was over the course of two years is what I assume you were saying it at least more recently.
I like the argument that save a better receiver room, we are the best Lamar suited franchise and we have been fiddling with this for five years. A new team will have to start afresh possibly.
So the trade after packages look interesting but it cuts both ways. Not only do the other teams need to save space for taking on Lamar – the ravens would also need to save space to counter.
one last point – if the nba and mlb already have fully guaranteed contracts .. it’s just time that NFL will need to this as well. The contact nature of the sport just change how this will be handled. Players would need to be insured for injury and some sort is injury protection rider for the cap will be needed.
Such conversations that skirt the issue but don’t actually mention it happen all the time. These chats live in the grey area. It’s the nature of the business.
Yeah I don’t buy half of this Fluff piece towards the Ravens. Cheering for the billionaires again over the workers, sorry not doing it. Ravens aren’t genius they are playing RussianRoulette with iconic,, Face of the franchise player. Another person who can’t objective look at the situation and blame the correct person organization-Ravens for lack of support around Lamar. Warren Sharp destroyed the Ravens on this. Last someone will give 8 his $$
Lamar has been the one playing Russian Roulette. Since he was first eligible to negotiate an extension after the 2020 season, he has held firm to his negotiation strategy of brinksmanship that the NFLPA advised. He ducked the Raven’s attempts to negotiate in earnest in the 2021 offseason, then held firm to a fully gtd deal worth more than Watson’s.
I’m sure he was a bit surprised by the non-exclusive tag (I think he would’ve been fine playing on consecutive exclusive tags for $100M, as Cousins was). Now the Ravens have called his bluff. LJ has already lost $58M in compensation had he signed an Allen-like deal after 2020, and will never make that up. He has, and is, paying the price for not having an agent.
And it’s not “8’s $$”. It’s not even the owner’s $$ (other than the upfront cash he has to use to back the gtd portion of a deal). It’s the player’s money. Their share of the CBA-negotiated revenue sharing creates the annual salary cap. The team’s decision is how much of that to give one player, at the expense of the other 52 guys.
You love Lamar, we get it. I respect Warren’s work. He’s off on this one.
Warren is definitely NOT wrong or off. Yes I do support Lamar bc transcendent players, Iconic Players put butts in seats, equate to Wins, Merch Sales, national spotlight and fan/brand growth. Not bc Ownerships and GMShips. Without Ray Lewis, Reeds, now LamarJackson.. Ravens are a moribund franchise. Not this iconic brand
The regression as a passer narrative is nonsense. When Bateman was healthy Lamar was the AFC player of the month. When Bateman went down, LJ operated with what is widely considered the worst group of WRs in the nfl. Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t make the playoffs with that group. So let’s stop with the nonsense of LJ not progressing as a passer. It is not his responsibility to manage the cap. It is his responsibility to maximize his value. Everyone is a capitalist until it’s time for pro athletes to get their value. Then everyone becomes a socialist. Good article. But Lamar has not “regressed”. And he’s not “selfish”.
ravens are not genius. We will see what happens. If we do not get picks this year, it is a problem. Was a huge Lamar fan. Can not leave town fast enough for me. He has destroyed his brand. Totally holding the team hostage like Cousins and Dak. Dislike those guys too. Will be disappointed if Lamar suits up again as a Raven. Will never get over him sitting out a playoff game. Move on Lamar.
Worst case scenario, a team like the Phins swoops in after the draft and makes Lamar’s South Beach dreams come true. We are sunk at QB for 2023, and get what will likely be late round draft compensation in 204 and 2025.
Bad scenario is a team like the Jets snagging him. Same scenario, late round picks only it does begin in 2023, but now the Jets become formidable competition in the AFC for years.
Best bad scenario may be the Texans. Believe a team has to give up their next 2 first rounders? If so, that would be #2 and #12 this draft. That’s good for a QB and one of the top WRs or CBs. Also don’t think the Texans would be an AFC threat any time soon, even with Lamar.
Best case, Lamar gets an agent and the Ravens sign him…I think
Excellent article 👏 👍
I thought it was fair and well balanced. I enjoyed it Toni
Tony, while I think you are too generous in your opinion of ED, nevertheless a great article. Thank you. Unfortunately for fans, I fear this won’t be resolved for a while, perhaps not till summer. Ugh! I think Tony Jefferson is right: odds are Lamar will remain a Raven but at a more reasonable price. But I would expect that he’ll stay away from pre-season activities.
Spot On TL !
If Lamar ends up playing on the Tag it will be interesting to see how that works out. He could:
-play well because his future depends on it
-play poorly because he’s pissed off and misses tons of practice
-get injured and make it last as long as he wants because his future is not guaranteed
Starting next week we see who wants to sign him.
I can’t wrap my head around all of this. This situation is just insane. There has never been such a big deal about a player who in five seasons has one playoff win. Ridiculous.
Sure, the best scenario would be to keep him (assuming he would be happy with such an outcome).
BUT – if it doesn’t end up happening… Let’s not act like the success of the Ravens as an organization and an NFL team was tied to Lamar Jackson. Let’s not make it look like it’s Lamar or bust. Sure, he’s the most desired option. But not the only one an NFL franchise – the Ravens for example – can win with.
You hit on the head why this should go quickly. Fear for Ravens is an owner falling in love. All these denials are by front office guys. To me there are 20 teams that have their QB. Other 11 how many will pass due to injuries, wont age well, think Lamar can only run a Roman type offense, dont wanna do Ravens bidding etc?