OTL: 5 Years in, ’18 QB Class Still has Questions

“With the first pick in the 2018 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns select Baker Mayfield, quarterback, Oklahoma.”

So started an evening that saw five quarterbacks drafted in the first round — a number that surprised nobody, as each of the five signal-callers offered something or another that provided fanbases a reason to believe. A real reason, you know? Each of the five were legitimate prospects, unlike many years where we see teams really stretch to convince us that their quarterbacks weren’t over-drafted out of desperation.

And, now, five years later, each of those five have their own unique stories. Some of those stories are terrific. Some… are not. Several have been in the news quite a bit this very week. Let’s take a look.

Baker Mayfield

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, he was the first pick in the draft, selected by that quarterback wasteland known as the Browns. He has started 69 games in his career, and led the Browns to their first playoff victory since Moses was wearing short pants, as my grandmother would have said.

Things started out well for Mayfield, as he threw a record 27 touchdown passes his rookie campaign. His second season saw him toss an astounding 21 interceptions. In his third season, Mayfield beat the Steelers in that playoff game and gave the Chiefs a run for their money. Up. Down. Up down. After four of those wild seasons in Cleveland, he was sent packing, and started 10 games for two different teams — the Panthers and Rams.

Former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield reached agreement today on a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, per sources. Mayfield is now in line to be Tom Brady’s successor. pic.twitter.com/2ZldEPxHY8

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 15, 2023

Then this week, Mayfield signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting himself up for a battle with… yeah. Kyle Trask.

Sam Darnold

The golden-haired quarterback from USC who had an epic battle against Saquon Barkley and Penn State in the Rose Bowl, was the third pick in the draft, by the New York Jets, another franchise starved for competent quarterback play.

Darnold also displayed some wild up and downs with the Jets, with fewer “ups” than Mayfield, but more “downs” — so, I guess that makes them even? He started 38 games in New York over his first three seasons, sporting a record of 13-25 before leaving for Carolina, where he put up a 4-7 record in 2021 before being injured. The next season, Darnold lost his starting job to… let’s see… Baker Mayfield.

49ers reached agreement on a one-year deal with former Panthers’ QB Sam Darnold, per source. pic.twitter.com/rpJLf1YXxi

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 13, 2023

This week, Darnold signed with the San Francisco 49ers. He was not set up to compete for a starting job as much as serving as a body and arm to only be used in case of emergency.

Josh Allen

The athletic unicorn out of Wyoming, Allen was the seventh pick, to yet another franchise longing for a special quarterback, but he is a real success story. Wild with his accuracy and overall vibe after receiving the snap, Allen struggled a bit his first two seasons, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns his rookie season, and having a QBR of 49.4 his second.

But he turned it on in season three, tossing 37 touchdowns to start a three-year stretch with 108 touchdowns and some majestic playoff moments, including a thrilling loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs after the 2021 season.

Jim Kelly vs Josh Allen in first 84 games
 
                   Jim Kelly   Josh Allen
Win%             .583          .667
Pass YPG       229           246
TD Passes      129            155
INT’s                85             64
QB Rating       87.7           93.2#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/NuuyvnmLNL

— Put Steve Tasker in the Hall of Fame (@HOFSteveTasker) March 3, 2023

Allen still probably throws too many interceptions, but he is now one of the faces of the NFL, and one of the elite arms in the league.

Oh, and he’s been paid.

Through his first five seasons, Allen has pocketed $85 million. The next closest out of this group has been Darnold, with $49.3 million.

2018 Qb draft class
First 5 year earnings:

1st pick Baker mayfield 48.4 million
3rd pick Sam Darnold 49.3 million
7th pick Josh Allen 85 million
10th pick Josh Rosen 18.7 million
32nd pick Lamar Jackson 32.7 million

— Joe Haden (@joehaden23) March 8, 2023

Josh Rosen

Rosen was the cerebral, borderline cocky, quarterback out of UCLA who many thought was the most “pro-ready” of the five. He went 3-10 in 13 starts his rookie year, after being the 10^th pick in the draft to the Cardinals. He has only had three starts since, and last appeared in 2021 for the Falcons, completing two out of 11 passes.

We probably don’t need to go much further with Rosen, do we? Just attach “El Busto” to his name and move on.

Here we go…

Lamar Jackson

We know the story well around here: one of the most exciting players college football had ever seen, won a Heisman Trophy with Louisville, and finished third the next season, was the last pick of the first round for your Baltimore Ravens.

We know how that has gone.

Jackson went 19-3 as a starter his first two seasons, and picked up an MVP award through unanimous vote in his second — probably one of the most electric seasons the league has ever seen. Overall, he is 45-16 as a starter, and is now embroiled in one of the most fascinating, frustrating, bang-your-head-against-a-molten-hot-anvil contract situations many of us league observers have ever witnessed.

Will he stay in Baltimore, and try out a new offense? Will he leave for greener (and I do mean greener $$$) pastures? That story has still not been completed as of the time I shipped off this column to the editor’s desk.

There are still plenty of chapters left in the stories of these quarterbacks (well, maybe not Rosen. His book has probably turned into a pamphlet given away for free outside of small airports now.)

But it is as good an example as any of how any of these four quarterbacks who appear locked into the first round in next month’s draft could soar…or Rosen.