Here We Go Again

Three things in life are certain:

1. Death
2. Taxes
3. The Ravens signing veteran wide receivers.

And, sure enough, we’ve hit that third item yet again with the addition of pass-catcher Odell Beckham Jr. for a cool 15(!) million dollars guaranteed. In fact, this is the second time this offseason that Eric DeCosta & Co. have played this card, after picking up the experienced Nelson Agholor a few weeks ago. While the OBJ move was eye-popping, the Agholor signing was, well, eye-rolling. There is absolutely no guarantee that either decision works out. Indeed, the two combined for just over 300 receiving yards last season. Granted, both suffered long-term injuries… but that’s the point.

As indicated, this is certainly not the first time we’ve seen the Ravens take a flier on an experienced (to put it nicely) piece at the WR positions, especially in the Lamar Jackson era. Just look at the team’s recent free agent history:

Salary information sourced from OverTheCap.

Yet, none of these additions seem to stick around for long. Michael Crabtree was let go just one season into his three-year deal (albeit in a salary-cap move), and the team declined to re-sign Seth Roberts, Dez Bryant, Sammy Watkins, or Demarcus Robinson. Even shortly after being elevated from the practice squad to the 53-man roster, DeSean Jackson demanded a release while the season was still ongoing. Willie Snead was the only player who fulfilled a multiyear deal, but he wasn’t exactly a superstar.

Too, investment in these players was relatively low. Indeed, the team only committed just over $38 million between seven different players, and $21 million of that total was tied up in Michael Crabtree. After the 2018 season, five receivers were signed… for a collective AAV of $2.057 million. That number is concerningly low, especially when the largest deal handed out was worth up to $5M. This lack of financial investment, as well as the insignificant commitment to any WR over multiple years, certainly doesn’t instill any hope for future improvement.

The Agholor signing fits right in with this trend; a predictable but serviceable veteran at a low price.

The OBJ deal does not; a former superstar who hasn’t played in a year at an exceptionally high price.

So, with as little cap space as ever… what changed?

A Guy Who’s Been There

Everything one could ask a wide receiver to do in his career, Odell Beckham Jr. has done. He’s a Super Bowl champion, has had multiple trips to the Pro Bowl, and made arguably the greatest catch of all time back in 2014 against former Raven Brandon Carr. This certainly adds a lot to a young corps of pass-catchers, who accounted for a combined 754 yards last season. OBJ brings the veteran experience and leadership required to facilitate the rise of younger players, something the team has been lacking for a while now. Without even having played a single snap in purple and black, Beckham may be the most accomplished receiver in franchise history. Seriously.

OBJ obviously has a big impact on the field. However, by looking at his numbers more closely, one of the primary reasons he was signed could be because of his performance in the playoffs. With LA in 2021, he averaged 11.3 yards per catch, 38.1 yards per game, and hauled in five touchdowns over the course of eight regular season contests. When the postseason rolled around, however, Beckham flipped into a different gear. His numbers jumped to 13.7 yards per catch, 72 yards per game, and he scored two touchdowns. Even more remarkable may be his catch percentage. In the regular season, OBJ had a modest 56.3% reception rate… but this figure rocketed towards an eye-catching 80.8% in the playoffs. In other words, he only missed five out of 26 passes thrown his way throughout the postseason. Truly spectacular.

All data sourced from Pro Football Reference.

One could argue that the Ravens offense under Lamar Jackson, too, hits a different gear in the playoffs. If this is true, the change is most definitely a downshift. The offense has only managed 210 pass yards per game and puts up an average of 13 points per postseason contest. Counting extra points as a guarantee from the greatest kicker of all time, that’s less than two touchdowns per game. In today’s NFL, it’s nearly impossible to win games with those numbers… even in a game against the worst team in the league, much less the playoffs. Maybe that’s why Jackson has gone 1-3 in the postseason.

The addition of Beckham will certainly help to alleviate these woes. Aside from a pure increase in production, he’ll be able to provide mentorship to younger players about how to elevate their respective games in the playoffs. This could be enough to get the team over its playoff hump and advance to the AFC Championship. That is… if he stays healthy.

Playing the Long Game

The true value of Odell Beckham Jr. may not show directly on the stat sheet. Maybe his presence ignites a breakout season for Rashod Bateman and frees up Mark Andrews for more receptions. Maybe it lets JK Dobbins return to the elite form he’s proved he’s capable of. Maybe Jackson returns to the level of production he achieved in 2019.

$18 million is an awful lot of money for an awful lot of maybes. It’s certainly the biggest risk Eric DeCosta has taken during his tenure as GM.

The OBJ experiment could be a spectacular failure. It could also be one of the savviest moves in franchise history.

Even amid the excitement, both the fanbase and the front office will be holding their collective breaths to see how it all plays out. But, for now, the Flock can say four words in confidence…

“Here we go again!”