Trade Back Tuesday: Examining a Mock Where Ravens Move Back

Eric DeCosta loves his draft picks. Not only did he amass 10 of them heading into the 2022 draft, he picked another up on draft night and used all 11 of the Ravens’ selections, declining to use any of them to trade up or add a veteran player.

So he was only confirming the obvious when he told media during a recent pre-draft press conference that Baltimore would be looking to add more picks by trading back on draft night. The Ravens currently have just five picks, the team’s lowest total since 1999, so they’re likely hoping to move back from the 22nd overall pick and pick up extra Day 2 and 3 draft capital in the process.

Let’s take a look at one potential way that could play out in a three-round mock draft by PFF’s Mike Renner. (It should be noted that Renner made his mock before the Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr., though that signing has little relevance to Renner’s picks for Baltimore.)

C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young go 1-2 to the Panthers and the Texans, while the Colts take Anthony Richardson at four. None of the three no-brainer potential picks for the Ravens fall to 22, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nolan Smith and Joey Porter Jr. all getting selected in a row in the teens.

Will Levis, on the other hand, has slid all the way down to the Ravens’ pick, and the Rams are on the phone trying to trade for their post-Matt Stafford QB. Baltimore sends the 22nd pick to Los Angeles in exchange for their second- and third-round picks, the 36th and 69th overall selections.

According to the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart used commonly in the NFL, Baltimore receives a surplus value of a late sixth-round pick in this trade. A Fitzgerald-Spielberger evaluation, another trade value system which factors in the expected contract values of draft picks, also favors the Ravens, though only with a surplus value of a mid-seventh-round pick.

It’s a fairly even trade and I can see why the Ravens would accept it given their desire to add more picks.

However, if this scenario plays out, DeCosta should ask for a little bit more from the Rams.

The Ravens openly want to trade back, which should lower their leverage, but the Rams’ desire to trade up into the first round for a quarterback tips the scales back in Baltimore’s favor. Trading up for a quarterback has historically required a slight overpay and for good reason. Rookie quarterback contracts are one of the most valuable assets in the NFL, especially a pick in the back-half of the first round that comes with a significantly cheaper contract than a top-10 selection and an extra year of team control via a fifth-year option. In fact, the Fitzgerald-Spielberger evaluation tips towards the Rams if they use the 22nd pick on a quarterback.

As a result, the Ravens should hold out for another Day 3 pick from the Rams, or at least a pick swap to upgrade one of their other selections.

Overall, though, I like the strategy of trading back from 22 for early second- and third-rounders to catch players who fell out of the previous round. Picks 36, 69 and 86 form a solid trio that should yield at least one starter and two rotational contributors in 2023. However, I’m less enamored with Renner’s would-be Ravens at each of those picks, as I believe that better players in terms of talent, fit and positional need were available every time Baltimore was on the clock.

Here are Renner’s picks:

36th overall – Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State

69th overall – Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech

86th overall – Tyler Steen, OL, Alabama

On the face of it, I don’t hate the idea of drafting Jones. The 6-foot-8, 374-pound lineman would rival 2022 fourth-rounder Daniel Faalele and continue the Ravens’ recent efforts to build a wall in front of Lamar Jackson. He’s long and strong, an absolute people-mover in the run game and a lights-out pass protector who kept Stroud squeaky clean last year. Forget Jones’ zero sacks allowed; he didn’t give up a single QB hit last season, per PFF.

But despite Jones’ talent and potential, he doesn’t make sense for the Ravens right now. We may never feel 100% comfortable with Ronnie Stanley’s ankle, but the Ravens have worked to build depth at tackle. Jones would join Stanley, Faalele, Patrick Mekari and Morgan Moses, potentially log-jamming the position. Baltimore could save $4 million by cutting Moses after June 1 with minimal dead cap hits in 2023 and 2024, but getting rid of a veteran calming force while chasing a Super Bowl doesn’t seem wise. A better situation would be to have Moses continue to mentor Faalele – who impressed in his limited action last year – and transition the giant ex-Golden Gopher into the starting job in 2024.

Jones doesn’t fit for the same reasons as Keion White, a raw edge defender who has the physical tools to succeed in the NFL…eventually. He’s an intense competitor who plays like he’s stronger and faster than his opponents, which he was most of the time in college. That’s primarily how he produced 11 sacks and 35 tackles for loss in his only two full seasons as an edge defender, impressive production for such an inexperienced player. But when White can’t beat blockers with relentless physicality, he runs out of answers. He’s not especially agile and lacks the instincts and pass-rushing moves that come with experience, so he’s not ready to be an instant-impact edge defender in Mike Macdonald’s defense.

White reminds me of Odafe Oweh in that his biggest contribution early on will be as a run defender, with the possibility of using his size-speed-strength combo to generate some interior pressure. That’s not a bad pick in the third round; in fact, 69th overall is excellent value for White’s long-term upside, though he is already 24 years old. He’s being projected to go much higher, even earning an invite to the NFL Draft as a potential Day 1 pick. However, he’s not the right fit for a Ravens team that needs more from their rookies this year.

Alabama OL Tyler Steen, Renner’s final selection for the Ravens, fits that bill much better as an experienced tackle who could be the team’s next Mekari. Steen has excellent footwork and understands how to win ugly as a blocker with positioning and leverage. His short arms may disqualify him as a tackle for some teams, but the Ravens have been more than willing to trot out Mekari and his T-Rex arms at left and right tackle in recent years. Steen is a swing tackle with starting guard potential in the NFL.

Still, this pick is a bit strange after taking Dawand Jones in the second round. In fact, using their first three picks on the trenches wouldn’t make sense for the Ravens with better players at more important positions available.

In fact, that’s the main source of my distaste for Renner’s choices for the Ravens: the opportunity cost of choosing those players over the others available. At each pick, it felt like there were better players available, in terms of talent, positional need and fit. With that in mind, I’ve put together four alternate draft classes, all of which are made up of players that were available at each of the Ravens’ selections in Renner’s mock draft. Come back tomorrow to check them out!