Happy Monday, Flock Nation. I hope everybody’s weekend was better than J.K. Dobbins‘, as the RB set off warning bells across Ravens Twitter last week with a few posts hinting at a potential departure from Baltimore.
Baltimore…. #Ravensflock i hope Im here till the end of my career… I love you 💜
— Jk dobbins (@Jkdobbins22) June 1, 2023
Many fans took this to be a negative indicator for Dobbins’ extension talks with the Ravens as he enters the final season of his rookie contract.
Here’s what I think is going on:
The Ravens’ forward-thinking front office wanted to get ahead on their negotiations with Dobbins as expectations for his 2023 season have risen to monstrous proportions. But with expensive long-term deals for Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Roquan Smith, Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey already on the books – plus rising future cap hits for Marcus Williams – the Ravens simply can’t afford to pay a top-of-the-market deal to a running back.
Based on the current RB market, Dobbins could reasonably command north of $10m per year on the open market in 2024, but there’s simply too much data about the declining value of running backs for the Ravens’ analytically minded decision-makers to ignore. Baltimore’s opening offer likely signaled to Dobbins that the team would not be willing to meet his contract desires, especially if he reaches his elite three-down potential this season.
Im baldimore tew and threw till I’m gone 💜
— Jk dobbins (@Jkdobbins22) June 1, 2023
It always seemed that Jackson wanted to stay in Baltimore, but not at a contract below his value. That seems to be the case with Dobbins: he would prefer to stay in Baltimore, but won’t do so on a steep discount just to stick around. But unlike Jackson, he’s not absolutely, fundamentally vital to the success of this team. Don’t get me wrong – he’s an elite talent at RB who deserves a sizable workload and a corresponding payday. But here’s the hard truth: if Dobbins plays as well as we all know he can in 2023, the Ravens won’t be able to afford him in 2024.
Dobbins isn’t going anywhere before then, though. With the Ravens gearing up for a run at the Lombardi Trophy, they don’t want to subtract anything from the team, especially a highly motivated player in a contract year.
In fact, that’s the case on both sides of the ball in Baltimore. Dobbins is in a similar situation to fellow 2020 pick Patrick Queen, whose future prospects in Baltimore took a double-hit when the team drafted Trenton Simpson and declined Queen’s fifth-year option. Both team and player have indicated interest in an extension, but like Dobbins, Queen may find out that such a deal will not come as his preferred – or even earned – price point.
There’s the potential for a win-win scenario for both players, though. Breakout years from each would go a long way in boosting their contract values and Baltimore’s championship hopes. While that would almost certainly mean that both Dobbins and Queen would depart for richer pastures, they’d get their paydays and the Ravens would collect compensatory picks – potentially as high as fourth-rounders – in the process. As far as the business of the NFL goes, that’s not a bad outcome for either side.
But while Queen has been an active, eager participant in the Ravens’ voluntary OTAs, Dobbins has yet to attend, even as multiple players, including Jackson, have stressed the importance of learning Todd Monken’s new offense. Dobbins is no doubt training on his own, preparing for his widely-expected breakout season, but his absence will only grow more glaring as more players report to The Castle.
The Ravens are still waiting for that group to include Odell Beckham Jr., but the rest of Baltimore’s wide receivers have been hard at work under the tutelage of new WRs coach Greg Lewis.
New WRs Coach Greg Lewis got right to it at Rookie Minicamp 🗣
Watch Wired: https://t.co/sHDYTTPoz6 pic.twitter.com/NQmd8Enj8U
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) June 4, 2023
Lewis joins pass game specialist Keith Williams as the coaches primarily responsible for training up the Ravens’ wideouts, succeeding Tee Martin, who has moved back to his natural position as quarterbacks coach.
Lewis and Williams have created a collaborative but competitive atmosphere on the practice field, holding veterans, first-round picks and undrafted rookies to the same high standard across drills and full-team scrimmages.
The Ravens are hoping the duo of coaches can help Monken deliver on the promise of the passing game with these WRs, starting with Zay Flowers.
"Zay has been fantastic." WR Coach Greg Lewis pic.twitter.com/fQ6FHsChYk
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) June 1, 2023
Flowers has impressed in OTAs so far, even with Lewis and Williams putting him through his paces with extra reps in drills, a featured role in 11-on-11 work and practice with Devin Duvernay fielding kicks. But he embraces the work with a smile, running out every pass he catches to the end zone and hustling back for the next rep. Baltimore prioritizes that hard-working approach with their premium draft picks, and they seem to have found another grinder in Flowers.
Fellow rookie Dontay Demus Jr. has also stood out at OTAs, though he’s on the other end of the spectrum compared to Flowers in a few ways. Flowers is a 5-foot-9, 182-pound first-round pick, while Demus is 6-foot-3, 218 pounds and an undrafted free agent addition. Flowers is an obvious lock to make the 53-man roster, while Demus is battling for a spot among a suddenly crowded group of young wideouts. His size is a distinct advantage, and he’s shown the ability to take coaching and improve his technique even within a single practice.
Demus didn't get a lot of love in the Pre-Draft cause he was not the same coming off of serious injury in 22', but if he is healthy and ends up making the team, he's definitely someone to keep an eye on.
In 21' he showed the physical tools to be a starting X in the NFL. https://t.co/sP9O0ysvoL
— Marcus Whitman (@TFG_Football) June 3, 2023
The Ravens have a few short-area slot-proficient speedsters already, so Demus’ size and ability to win routes along the sidelines could offer him a path to the 53, but he may need to find a way to contribute on special teams to do so. He is definitely a player to watch as the Ravens’ preseason ramps up this summer.
