OTL: NFL Shooting Stars

The Dobbins Dilemma

For the better part of the last two seasons, the Ravens were at the center of a contract negotiation that drew the attention of the entire NFL. The long-term deal eventually struck between the Ravens and Lamar Jackson was a focal point for fans and teams league-wide, not only because of the caliber of player involved but also because of the implications for how Jackson’s contract would dictate the future of the QB market.

Don’t look now, but the Ravens may find themselves involved in a similar discussion throughout the coming season and beyond. No, it won’t involve their one-time unanimous MVP, but it will involve an electric offensive playmaker whose contract will be dictated by an extremely volatile market. I’m going to take this time to talk about J.K. Dobbins, but, in doing so, I’m also going to zoom out and talk about a larger issue of the modern negotiations of NFL running backs.

Running back J.K. Dobbins is participating in Ravens media day, which is one day before the team’s mandatory minicamp.

Dobbins has not attended voluntary OTAs this offseason and sent some cryptic tweets about his future a couple weeks ago.

pic.twitter.com/j2cND2Fiit

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) June 12, 2023

In case you haven’t been tracking the ongoing situation, I’ll summarize as best I can: J.K. Dobbins is entering the final year of his rookie contract in Baltimore and is presumably beginning the arduous task of negotiating a contract extension. NFL contract negotiations are already difficult to navigate at their best, but Dobbins’ long-term recovery from an ACL tear that cost him his entire 2021 season muddies the waters even further. Despite missing additional time last season following a clean-up procedure to remove the remaining scar tissue in his knee, Dobbins still recorded 520 rushing yards in eight regular season games, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

Dobbins’ productivity from a YPC standpoint looked great, but the Ravens seemed to be intent on easing him back into action to reduce the risk of reaggravating his injury. Ultimately, that would mean less action in the red zone, an area where the Ravens struggled last year. It would be an ill-timed red zone fumble that would also end Baltimore’s season. Understandably, Dobbins was unhappy that he wasn’t called upon to try to punch the ball in at the goal line, and he made no secret about it in his postgame interview.

JK Dobbins: “I should be the guy. I’m tired of holding that back.”pic.twitter.com/XPBrJENu2j

— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) January 16, 2023

Entering the offseason, I was concerned about what the future might look like for Dobbins. A change at OC could mean that he’s utilized more effectively in red zone situations, but the emphasis on wide receiver acquisitions could also spell a shift away from the run-heavy approach under Greg Roman’s tenure. Uncertainty about Dobbins’ future in Baltimore was amplified as he voiced his concerns on Twitter, with the second of the two posts below having since been deleted.

I understand both sides of this negotiation. Dobbins is only 24 years old and views himself as capable enough to be one of the premier backs in the league. When healthy, his ability and upside have shown that. On the flip side, the team is attempting to be frugal and potentially basing their view of J.K.’s upside on past evidence of other running backs recovering from ACL injuries. Unless your name is Adrian Peterson, those injuries tend to slow you down indefinitely. Dobbins’ choice to vocalize his frustrations via Twitter is nothing new; players are increasingly using social media to exert outward pressure on their respective organizations to negotiate. No matter how you view it, that outward pressure is giving him something that he lacks otherwise as a running back: leverage.

Examining Baltimore’s current running back room, J.K. is the clear RB1, but it wouldn’t be a cataclysmic event if the Ravens had to rely on Gus Edwards. Edwards experienced his own ACL tear not long ago that cost him a season, and at 28 years old, there may be doubts about his longevity, but he’s averaged 5+ yards per carry every season of his career. Justice Hill’s primary asset may be his presence on special teams, but he also averaged over 5 YPC last season despite limited action. Adding intrigue as a dark horse is undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell (ECU), who averaged a whopping 7.2 YPC with 14 rushing touchdowns in his final season with the Pirates and showed flashes as a threat in the receiving game.

And that’s just in-house competition.

It’s June 9th and Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Myles Gaskin, Darrel Williams, Kenyan Drake, and Melvin Gordon are all free agents…

All but Gordon are in their 20’s

Being an NFL running back is tough… pic.twitter.com/HLE1Z7AzPw

— Mark Stewart (@MarkSte05043967) June 10, 2023

There’s an embarrassment of riches in the free agent market at running back, and those close to the sport are taking notice. It feels like it’s only a matter of time before running backs will have to demand more from the NFLPA or take matters into their own hands.

“The running back position is the most disrespected position in all of sports!”
@BMarshall says it’s time for RBs like Josh Jacobs and @Saquon Barkley to boss up and secure the 💰 they deserve 😤

Tap in for the full #PaperRoute convo 📰 → https://t.co/ImNi6mYDSp pic.twitter.com/1O4kAZy09d

— I AM ATHLETE (@IAMATHLETEpod) May 31, 2023

Running backs are GETTING HOSED in the NFL. Dalvin Cook is 27 and coming off 4 straight 1,000 yard seasons with 43 rushing TDs. He is clearly 1 of the best players in the NFL and has MORE THAN EARNED the money left on his contract. Yet, the Vikings plan to release him. RIDICULOUS

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) June 8, 2023

It’s really offensive how the league treats running backs. RB’s need their own union and CBA. https://t.co/FkSH4lEWiz

— Mark Ingram II (@markingramII) June 8, 2023

Of the top six rushers in the NFL last season, two of them (Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley) have been franchise tagged, and both have expressed their frustrations about not securing an extension.

Sometimes it’s not about you. We gotta do it for the ones after us 🤷🏽‍♂️

— Josh Jacobs (@iAM_JoshJacobs) June 10, 2023

Saquon Barkley on the RB market: "They tagged the top 3 guys. We didn't even get a chance to hit the open market. They put the cap at $10M. And when they have the tag, they have all the leverage. That's the reality."

Honest answer here:

(🎥 @SNYGiants)pic.twitter.com/D9TbdRRKOO

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) June 12, 2023

Two others (Dalvin Cook and Miles Sanders) also had to find new homes with Cook recently being released by the Vikings and Sanders signing a contract with the Panthers. The league leader in rushing touchdowns last season, Jamaal Williams, ended up in the same boat. Despite recording 17 rushing TDs, he now joins his third team in four years after signing on with the Saints as a free agent.

So, why are we seeing this become such an issue now?

Is it the shift in modern football to a more receiving-savvy RB like Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler?

Is it a value-based argument for what you can get spending contract money on other positions?

Those issues certainly contribute, but, if I had to boil a complicated issue down to its critical point, it’s this: league ownership views running backs as a “shooting star” position. They burn bright for a short amount of time, and then they fade away almost as quickly. GMs don’t want to be left fixating on the last star that burned out, they want to capture the next one that’s about to go streaking across the sky.

Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, Zeke Elliott, Leonard Fournette and JD McKissic headline the names that are still available. What’s the one factor they all share? They’re all at least 27 years old. Apart from Kareem Hunt, they all had at least one younger running back immediately behind them on the depth chart (Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, Rachaad White, and Brian Robinson) viewed as the potential replacement. Somehow, 27 years old has become the unofficial line of demarcation for a running back’s future viability, and this Leonardo DiCaprio-style age inequity is understandably drawing the ire of RBs who feel that they still have plenty of tread on the tires.

Brandon Marshall and RGIII made the collective point above, that the beating may not be worth playing the position, and young athletes may begin gravitating away from playing running back if they feel that the risk isn’t worth the reward. Unfortunately, if there’s someone behind you talented enough to play the position and willing to take that same beating, running backs will still be viewed as expendable. We’ve seen that mentality creep into CBA negotiations time and again with different positions, and it seems that running back is becoming the new battleground position.

I truly hope that J.K. Dobbins has his best season yet, that the Ravens win some hardware, and that he gets the contract he’s earned. Until then, I hope he stays healthy and ready for the season ahead, because his toughest uphill battle might be taking place off the field.

[Related Article: Ravens Wishlist DENIED!]