Flock, this isn’t fun, but I feel like it’s necessary.
I did this so that you don’t have to: I took a deep dive into some of the losses since the beginning of last season to see just how bad they really were. If you’ve sat through them all like I have, you know that they were excruciating, but I feel like it’s important to look at the details so that we don’t just become numb to the collapses. There’s not much we can do as a fanbase to change the status quo, but with this sample size, we can hold some accountability to that idea that the team will “win or learn” and will make the adjustments we’ve heard so much about.
Be forewarned, what lies ahead is not for the faint of heart. It’s no secret that these losses have been exceptionally bad, but they might be even worse than you remember, especially one after another. Let’s start at the beginning of last season and work our way forward.
September 18, 2022 (Week 2)
Baltimore plays their home opener against the Miami Dolphins. On two separate occasions during the game, the Ravens held a 21-point lead, including as they entered the 4th quarter. For nearly the entirety of the second half, the Ravens held a win probability of 90% or greater, according to ESPN Analytics. With 21 seconds remaining in regulation, the Ravens had a 99.9%-win probability.
Baltimore would surrender a touchdown with 14 seconds remaining. They would allow two touchdown catches of greater than 40 yards to Tyreek Hill and allow Tua Tagovailoa to record 469 passing yards and six touchdowns. The blame for the loss would be accepted mostly by the defense, but pundits also accounted for Greg Roman’s offense failing to run the clock down with a three-possession lead.
October 2, 2022 (Week 4)
Baltimore hosts Buffalo in their second home game of the season. The Ravens had a 17-point lead in the first half and entered halftime with a 10-point lead. They would surrender 13 unanswered points in the second half and lose on a walk-off field goal.
Baltimore’s probability of winning in this game was as high as 93.3%. They entered the second half with an 82.8% win probability. The loss would be attributed in large part to multiple turnovers, as well as a lack of offensive production, especially in the second half.
October 16, 2022 (Week 6)
Baltimore was facing the Giants on the road and had a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter. Mark Andrews’ touchdown reception with 12:54 to go in regulation gave the Ravens a win probability of over 90%.
Baltimore recorded 406 yards of total offense, while the Giants had just 238 on the day, but a pair of turnovers in the last three minutes of regulation sealed the game in New York’s favor. The Giants also recorded a higher time of possession.
November 27, 2022 (Week 11)
The Ravens went on the road to play the 3-7 Jacksonville Jaguars. Baltimore would take leads in the 4th quarter of nine and seven points, with the seven-point lead coming from a Josh Oliver touchdown with 2:02 remaining in regulation. The Jaguars then drove the length of the field and scored a touchdown with 14 seconds remaining, also successfully converting a 2-point try to take the lead. Justin Tucker would miss what would have been an NFL-record 67-yard field goal as time expired.
The Ravens had a probability of winning as high as 99.1% in the final two minutes. The defense allowed 11 receptions and 145 yards to Zay Jones, as well as the game-winning two-point conversion. Trevor Lawrence recorded 321 passing yards and three touchdowns.
The losses marked a historic inability to finish winnable games, and they would continue.
Four teams in NFL history have led by more than one possession in each of their first 11 games
Record
1942 Bears 11-0
2009 Saints 11-0
2011 Packers 11-0
2022 Ravens 7-4 pic.twitter.com/dqScZE14cm— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 27, 2022
January 2, 2023 (Week 17)
Pittsburgh travels to Baltimore, and the Ravens take a 10-point lead in the third quarter with a 51-yard field goal from Justin Tucker. Baltimore would then allow 13 unanswered points, including the game-winning touchdown by Najee Harris with less than a minute in regulation. Tyler Huntley then threw an interception with 20 seconds remaining.
Baltimore’s probability of victory hovered around 80% for almost the entirety of the second half. Pittsburgh, though, controlled time of possession by almost 10 more minutes than the Ravens.
The Ravens closed the ‘22-’23 season with consecutive losses to the Cincinnati Bengals, each of which included a defensive touchdown on fumble recoveries for Cincinnati. Baltimore then spent the offseason attempting to recover an injury-maligned unit and prioritized enhancing the receiver corps.
They opened the ‘23-’24 season with a convincing home win against the Houston Texans, followed by a tight road win against the Bengals. Then, concerning habits…re-emerged.
September 24th, 2023 (Week 3)
Baltimore would return home to host the Indianapolis Colts. Baltimore never held a double-digit lead throughout the game (thanks in large part to a Kenyan Drake fumble) but did lead going into halftime and were clearly the better team. Gardner Minshew surrendered a safety as he stepped out of the back of the end zone, giving the Ravens a three-point lead with 2:03 remaining in regulation. At that time, Baltimore’s win probability was over 85%. They would receive the ball, but an ill-fated miscommunication on a fair catch by Zay Flowers allowed Indy to get the ball back.
Colts kicker Matt Gay converted four kicks of over 50 yards on the day, including the game winner in overtime. Colts running back Zack Moss recorded over 100 rushing yards and a receiving touchdown. Justin Tucker missed two kicks on the day.
October 8, 2023 (Week 5)
The most recent chapter in our saga. Baltimore would round out their division road games with a chance to improve to 4-1 and 3-0 on the road in the AFC North. The Ravens would take a 10-0 lead in the second quarter but flubbed their chance at a chip-shot field goal at the end of the half, once again citing a miscommunication. This time, Tyler Linderbaum took responsibility, saying he thought that he could catch a defender in the neutral zone with a snap that was never supposed to happen.
Baltimore would then surrender three turnovers and 17 unanswered points. George Pickens hauled in six passes for 130 yards and a touchdown. Following a special teams fumble by the Steelers, Baltimore would take possession at Pittsburgh’s five-yard line with a two-point lead. Their win probability was over 90%. Lamar Jackson’s pass to Odell Beckham Jr. was intercepted in the end zone. Baltimore’s pass-catchers had seven dropped passes on the day, the most in a single game since 2013.
The Ravens had 7 drops Sunday, according to TruMedia, tied for the 3rd most by any NFL team since 2013.
The final breakdown:
Mark Andrews (3)
Zay Flowers (2)
Rashod Bateman (1)
Nelson Agholor (1)— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) October 9, 2023
In a 22-game span, the Ravens have lost five games that they led at one time by 10 points or more. If you make the criteria two-possession leads, last year’s Jacksonville game is included in that sample, bringing it to six. By comparison, in that same stretch, the Eagles and the Chiefs have lost fewer than six games in any fashion.
If you were to attend a Ravens game at random beginning in Week 2 of last season until now, the likelihood that you watched them surrender a two-possession lead in a loss was 27.27%. Over one in four. Until the ability to maintain a lead is addressed within the building, this team will continue figuring out historic ways to lose. The talent within the building is at risk of being squandered or lost elsewhere if there aren’t drastic changes made, and soon. A 22-game sample size doesn’t feel long laid out in this format, but it’s enough to put the problem on full display.
Special thanks to Tej Seth for helping me compile the numbers on this one. Give him a follow if you would, he’s an awesome source for statistical breakdowns and an overall great guy.
6 Responses
But they played “hard” per the head coach, among other innocuous comments😩! But his players love him!!!
According to ESPN Stats, Lamar has 11 turnovers in the 4th quarter or OT of one score games the past 3-years which is the most in the league!
I have watched football all my life. It started with my dad. I don’t know everything about football, but I know what I see every week. The offense takes the lead and for some reason it’s like they are told they have done enough. They decide to leave it to the defense to keep the lead. The offense loses their rhythm and start going 3 and out. The defense gets tired. Then the offense can’t get started again and we lose. Other times we play down to teams. It’s like we change the game plan for teams we should easily beat. The head coach doesn’t have a killer instinct. You could say it’s the other coaches, but they have changed, Harbaugh is the only constant. I’m glad the team likes him. I’m glad he has a winning record overall, but he is not an offense minded guy. He relies too heavily on the defense. We have a good team, but game planning doesn’t always show it. I don’t expect them to win every game, but I expect them to win games against lesser teams. I know they can. I hated hearing Lamar Jackson sat they were kicking the rust off after the first game. That’s what training camp and the preseason is for., but that’s not what happens anymore. The mediocrity needs to stop. The excuses need to stop. They need everyone to play 4 quarters of football scoring and defending.
Harbaugh’s keep it close and play not to lose philosophy has not changed and will not change regardless of who the OC is because this is Harbaugh’s team…..period! When Cam Cameron was fired during the 2012 season, Joe Flacco literally took control of a wild card team and went on the road to tie or break records on his way to a spectacular SB MVP championship without a true OC! He had his most productive season following the SB win in 2014 when Gary Kubiak was hired without Harbaugh’s input, brought his own assistants and answered to no one! But for the inept Harbaugh DC, Dean “Swiss” Pees, we may have enjoyed another SB win! Kubiak left to win a SB the following year in Denver with an over the hill QB in Peyton Manning. Since then, it’s been an OC carousel here with just 1 postseason win in 10 years! Somewhere Greg Roman must be……smiling!
To whom it may concern , the Raven organization is and has been stuck in quicksand for a number of years now . If everybody wants to be honest with themselves it’s time for the owner to fire coach harbaugh. Not necessarily for being a bad coach but 15 years is way too long to coach in any sport , the message he gives out has grown stale and goes in and out of his players ears. His in game coaching and clock management has long been ignored by ownership but is a contributing factor in many of the Ravens losses. He keeps on explaining that miscommunication is the reason for a lot of these losses but the tune has been spinning for way too long now . If you are the head coach and in charge then if communication problems keep occurring as much as they do and aren’t fixed then you should be fired just like anybody else in charge . Coach harbaugh need to go and if the owner of this team doesn’t see that then the bottom line is he is only interested in making money not winning championships . The signing of Lamar Jackson for that money will haunt this organization for as long as he is here . It’s just as bad if not worse the the mistake that the orioles made signing Chris David and you see how that turned out . People in charge better wake up because floundering around in quicksand can only lead to one’s demise.
It’s Davis not David.
Besides, if the owner wants to throw his money away. Let him.