RSR’s Dev Panchwagh & Nikhil Mehta are tag-teaming Battle Plans in 2023.
Offense
Horizontal Misdirection
The seeds of Todd Monken’s use of pre-snap motion and misdirection to get the defense chasing laterally have been sprinkled in every game this season. But these concepts had yet to be brought together consistently. That is until last week, against the Detroit Lions, when it came together in a perfect storm.
The misdirection was really what put the Lions in a blender. Whether from under center or shotgun, there was a steady flow of “eye candy” that the Detroit defense had to account for in either direction, and the action was meant to get the defense out of position (chasing the cheese) across the field.
For instance, on the play-action touchdown pass from Lamar Jackson to Mark Andrews in the red zone, Andrews started out next to the left tackle, only to release into his route to the right after the snap. There was also back side action that the Lions had to account for after Andrews released.
On another play, ironically the botched fumble between Jackson and Justice Hill, there was also double action to account for. Jackson on a keep would have had two tight ends blocking the way on the right side perimeter. Hill on the handoff would have also had Pat Ricard and pullers out in front to the opposite side. The defense was screwed either way.
Misdirection on its own is devastating enough. Coupled with late motion before the snap is simply ruthless, and Monken needs to keep pushing these buttons, especially against an Arizona defense without the discipline and athleticism to keep up in space.
Over Routes for Levels
Keeping the horizontal attack theme going, we also saw Jackson fit the ball in some impossible spots over the middle. Dan Orlovsky from ESPN defined these completions as “layered” where Jackson would drop the ball over the linebackers and other middle defenders, in front of the secondary.
Overall, Monken seemed to employ more of these “over” combinations where you would see a target like Andrews run across the field and then you’d have Zay Flowers on a deeper pattern behind him. It’s a route combination geared to stress the width of the defense and Jackson found the holes each time.
Given that the Cardinals tend to play more zone and keep their safeties back, the challenge will be to find those layers, especially if they drop their linebackers deeper to take away the tiny throwing windows Jackson found against Detroit.
Although Jackson was masterful with his ball placement on these layered completions, there weren’t as many underneath targets to hold the LBs, which is something Arizona’s defensive staff led by head coach Jonathan Gannon anticipate as well.
This would shape up as a perfect chance for Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. to be those underneath targets to keep the LBs honest and continue to make defenses pay on those overs, especially if the backers cheat up. Bateman and OBJ also have the savvy to sit down and find the soft spots in zone coverage.
Gannon may also use a split-safety look pre snap before having safety Budda Baker buzz into the middle of the field after the play starts, so Jackson will have to keep his eyes on Baker to avoid falling into that trap.
Make Them Blitz
The Cardinals blitz on just 20.9% of snaps, the fifth-lowest rate in the league, and they can’t win with four pass rushers either. Arizona’s 15.1% pressure rate is the lowest in the NFL, and no Cardinals defender has recorded more than 15 pressures this season.
If Gannon wants to let Jackson sit back in the pocket like this…
Dear NFL Fans:
If you’re playing the Ravens and you see Lamar Jackson looking like this in the pocket just know you’re about to be pissed with what happens next pic.twitter.com/EQVa7tv5N8
— ⚡️Garrett Ferguson⚡️ (@GarrettSprints) October 23, 2023
…then the Ravens will jump out to a lead on Sunday. Jackson is seeing the field at another level right now, and he’ll have no problem finding his receivers for big gains if he has time to go through his progressions.
If that happens, Gannon is going to have to dial up some blitzes in the second half to try to force a turnover and keep his team in the game. The Ravens should invite that to get single coverage on the outside against Arizona’s inexperienced cornerback corps.
All of Baltimore’s receivers can feast against the Cardinals’ CBs, but the breakaway speed of Flowers and Bateman could be the key to getting a second-half dagger to close out a win and keep Sunday from being a trap game.
Defense
Striking Against Hollywood
The irony of facing Marquise Brown again is that he’s Arizona’s top offensive weapon and keeping him contained would essentially put the Baltimore defense in the driver’s seat. Tight end Zach Ertz was recently placed on IR along with running back James Conner.
Brown has really evolved into a go-to receiver in Arizona with the ninth highest average depth of target in the league (8.43) and has already racked up 65 targets for the season. He is showing the full repertoire as a wide receiver but remains a dangerous deep ball weapon.
The Baltimore secondary has been outstanding at virtually eliminating the big play. Along with Brown, Michael Wilson has also emerged as a sneaky downfield threat, with the sixth highest aDOT in the NFL (15.9). Keeping both WRs caged as more underneath targets and forcing them into a tackling drill would be the most ideal scenario.
Sleight of Hand Play Calling
If nothing else, for as much as the Cardinals have struggled, they’ve tried to have fun on offense. Wacky plays, like lining Rondale Moore in the backfield, would be an example of the type of approach they have taken. They are going to try some different, unconventional things, especially to boost a shorthanded offense.
Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is gaming the system with a combination of zone and gap schemes, mixed in with the read option. He’ll even feature quarterback Josh Dobbs on these designs to trip defenses up. All in all, with Moore being featured so heavily as a runner – in fact he only has an aDot of 2.0 – Arizona presents a challenging outside rushing attack with speed to hit the edges.
Coming into this contest, stopping the outside run has been one of Baltimore’s weakest points on defense. They’ve had their share of struggles dealing with coordinated pitches, tosses and screens on the perimeter over the last three games, and got hit again by Jahmyr Gibbs on a run, albeit late in the game.
The Baltimore defense will need to play with discipline and set the edge a lot better so they aren’t caught off guard, especially in having to corral Moore in space.
Rely on Four Man and Front Line Pressure
Dobbs has been a consummate veteran in Arizona this season, both as a leader and a QB. He identifies and handles blitzes with ease, with virtually no-drop off in his performance when blitzed.
Against a QB who can handle blitzes and an opponent that just doesn’t have the same high-level talent, why take the risk? All it takes is a ticky-tack pass interference or a trip in single coverage, and the Cardinals can put together a few explosive gains – the kind that allow a trailing team to quickly get back into the game.
Mike Macdonald should trust his defensive line that has only gotten better as the year goes on. Anthony Weaver has found a way to get more and more out of this unit every week, including even dropping into coverage.
Watching the Ravens defense and it's apparent how much they wanted to muddy the MOF for Goff
This a fun one from DC Mike McDonald–Big ol Travis Jones jumps a gap then drops into coverage *just* long enough to make Goff blink before ASB breaks (and Arthur Maulet gets home) pic.twitter.com/2Pwkw4FcLO
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) October 24, 2023
If Macdonald wants to increase the pressure on Dobbs, he should continue to do so with blitz designs that only send four rushers – the simulated pressures that present like all out pressure before the snap but turn into a funky four-man rush after.
Using stunts that attack the interior of the offensive line should be a go-to move on obvious passing downs, as the Cardinals will be starting a backup left guard (former Raven Trystan Colon).
Matchup to Watch
Arthur Maulet vs. Rondale Moore
The Ravens’ ability to grab veteran defenders for cheap and quickly get them playing some of the best football of their career never ceases to amaze. This year, it’s Kyle Van Noy, Jadeveon Clowney and Arthur Maulet, who has taken over at slot corner after Ar’Darius Washington went down for the year.
He’ll be matched up against Rondale Moore on Sunday, who averages 4.4 yards of average separation this season, leading all wideouts, per Next-Gen Stats. His average of 7.4 yards of pre-snap cushion is also a top-10 mark, and his aDOT of just 2.0 yards is the lowest in the league. That’s painting a pretty clear picture, and it crystallizes with one more stat: 96 of his 113 (85%) receiving yards this season have come after the catch.
The Cardinals work to get the ball to Moore with manufactured touches on sweeps and screens, so Maulet will have to be ready to quickly sort through blockers and make solid tackles in the open field. Maulet should also press the shorter Moore at the line of scrimmage to eliminate the cushion that allows the speedster to find so much space in the first place.
