Jackson Needs to Take the Checkdowns Against Seahawks

RSR’s Dev Panchwagh and Nikhil Mehta are tag-teaming Battle Plans in 2023.

Offense

Attack from 11 Formation

The Ravens had the golden opportunity to run the ball more against the Cardinals when they played softer, relying more on a coverage-first approach, keeping their safeties back and dropping more bodies in coverage overall. Baltimore has also had success running the ball from 11 with three receivers and one tight end on the field, averaging 0.0129 EPA. However, when they see lighter boxes in these situations, they still don’t run as often as they probably should. According to our friend and RSR contributor Daniel Rees (who was also gracious enough to share the above findings), the Ravens rank last in run percentage from 11 in the NFL, keeping it on the ground only 18% of the time.

Ravens currently (through 8 weeks) rank DEAD LAST in run percentage from 11 personnel (18.8%).
This is an area I was really hoping Monken would start to develop and exploit.
This was a clear issue versus Arizona and could continue to be one in a copycat league. pic.twitter.com/YQyri7Ezm9

— Daniel Rees (@DPRees8) October 31, 2023

The beauty with 11 is that Mark Andrews can line up off the line, in the slot, anywhere really, and it turns into a more spread look that can extend to almost a wide spread with four receivers on the field. With a third receiver, there is also the chance to manipulate blocking angles with more compact formations. And all three receivers are quality blockers that will seal the edges.

Against Seattle, who feature as good of a trio at the cornerback position as any team in the league, it may seem counterintuitive to line up in more 11 looks. But this is a chance to get the run game going without inviting more bodies into the box.

Look out also for rookie tailback Keaton Mitchell to get some snaps, as he can really stretch the defense wide to the boundary, which might be a sneaky opportunity given his speed.

Isolate the Linebackers & Safeties in Coverage

The strength of Seattle’s defense is their outside corners, Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. It might be the best duo in the league already. Attacking these two on the outside is the harder way to go. But there could be an easier path and the Ravens are one of the unique offenses in the league with the personnel to attack around those two corners.

Tight ends have been pretty successful against Seattle. Andrews should be the focal point, but sprinkling in Isaiah Likely could pay dividends too. Getting back to lining up in 11 personnel, this could also be a good game to create inside mismatch opportunities from the slot with Rashod Bateman and even Zay Flowers, using more of an inverted attack approach where the WRs line up inside out to exploit the backers and safeties down the field.

The Seahawks defense has faced 11 personnel on a league-high 80.3% of their plays, with under 100 snaps combined against 12, 13 and 21 looks to inconsistent results. Meanwhile, the Ravens offense is among the best operating with multiple tight ends and/or Patrick Ricard, ranking in the top-6 in EPA/play in 12, 13 and 21 personnel.

We previously talked about there being a great opportunity for the Ravens to run the ball from 11 when the chance presents itself, but given how well they have been doing from these base heavy formations, it remains a weapon for offensive coordinator Todd Monken to deploy, especially given how little Seattle has seen of those different multiple-tight end combinations.

Take the Checkdowns

The Cardinals rolled out an interesting defensive gameplan against Lamar Jackson the week after he torched the Lions for 357 yards and three touchdowns through the air: let him sit back in the pocket and pass.

Even more interesting … it worked. Arizona had multiple coverage sacks, aided by some uninspiring route combos that left Jackson with nowhere to go after his primary and secondary reads. Too often, Jackson’s only option on the backside of a play was a late screen, which are ripe for illegal blocking downfield penalties and give too much time for the defense to rally and tackle.

The Seahawks could take a similar approach on Sunday, sitting back in coverage and trusting their strong cornerback corps to bottle up Jackson’s downfield options. Their 22% blitz rate is the sixth lowest in the league, but they’ve still generated 26 sacks, fifth-most among NFL defenses.

Occupying three pass-catchers with a single concept that isn’t a primary read is simply a poor allocation of the offense’s resources, and Monken must diversify his approach to give Jackson more places to go with the ball. The Ravens offense would be better served by keeping in an extra RB or TE to block before releasing into a checkdown for Jackson.

Jackson also take those checkdowns when they are available, an issue that has been present throughout his career. He is so supremely talented, so capable of those Houdini moments, that his desire to hold onto the ball and make a play is somewhat understandable. He tries to hang in the pocket as long as he can and deliver a strike downfield, but the ball has to come out eventually. A two-yard gain or even an incompletion is still better than a sack, something Tom Brady recently reiterated to Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen (who has been guilty of the same at times) on his podcast.

This is kinda epic.

Tom Brady lecturing Josh Allen about decision-making.

TB: "We have to sometimes make decisions in certain moments to check the ball down or to gain a few yards and move on." #Bills #Patriots
pic.twitter.com/Z2Zdzdz1uX

— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) November 2, 2023

Defense

Bring Five Rushers Against Geno

Last week, we talked about Arizona (now Minnesota) QB Joshua Dobbs’ ability to handle the blitz, and how he can be dangerous against it. This week, with Geno Smith, it’s the opposite scenario. Getting pressure on Smith will be key to disrupting Seattle’s passing offense. His stats drop significantly when he’s under pressure:

Mike Macdonald’s usual heavy dosage of schemed-up simulated pressures will cause problems for a Seahawks OL that has worked through eight different combinations this season, but he shouldn’t hesitate to send an extra blitzer to force Smith to speed things up. That will generate more 1-on-1 matchups and free rushers against a Seattle passing attack that isn’t designed for a lot of quick hitters.

Some pre-snap movement with DL shifts and different players showing blitz and backing off will also sow confusion in Seattle’s OL, especially playing in front of a once-again raucous Baltimore fanbase.

The Seahawks rarely go to their tight ends in the passing game, so Baltimore can afford to move resources away from TE coverage towards pressuring the QB. Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen and Kyle Hamilton are all excellent blitzers, and their athleticism will allow Macdonald to have them all show blitz pre-snap with two of them dropping back in coverage once the play starts.

Macdonald should still be wary of Cover 0 blitzes against the dual deep threats of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, especially if the Seahawks are trying to cut into a Ravens lead. That has been a recurring theme for Baltimore’s second-half collapses, and Seattle is exactly the kind of offense that can torch defenses downfield in single coverage.

Force Geno to Throw Underneath

The natural connection to rushing Smith is that he’s one of the best deep ball passers in the league. Give him some time to unwind and he’ll burn you with Metcalf, Lockett or Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) on big plays down the field. Ideally, he is forced to make quicker decisions with the football and turn to underneath passes.

The Ravens come into this game with the best pass defense in the league and have been stellar at limiting long gains downfield. That was a weakness early last season. Now, behind Macdonald’s coverage looks and a group that is generally technique-sound, it’s turned into a strength.

The strength of the Seahawks is their receivers. Even corner Marlon Humphrey talked about how this game will largely come down to how he and fellow cornerback Brandon Stephens handle their outside matchups.

However, with the blitz and some disguise approach – show Cover 1 and Cover 3 pre snap and morph to Cover 2 post snap – forcing Smith to throw shorter and quicker is the formula. Moreover, with the possibility of safety Marcus Williams returning and safety Geno Stone already so adept at disguising coverage looks to bait quarterbacks, the possibilities to change coverages on the fly are easy to see for Macdonald.

Force Seattle to Go Off-Script

Pete Carroll is an old-school coach. He believes in establishing the run to set up play action shots downfield, a consistent theme in Seahawks offenses dating back to the days of Marshawn Lynch and Doug Baldwin.

Russell Wilson was absolutely deadly off of play action in Seattle, and GSmith has taken up that mantle in the last two seasons. Smith’s completion percentage improves by 18.7% off of play action, a league-leading figure entering Week 8, and his yards-per-attempt jumps by 3.3, a top-10 mark.

The best way for the Ravens defense to counter that is to keep the Seahawks from establishing the run in the first place. The Cardinals were surprisingly effective running the ball against the Ravens in the first half last week, frequently having their OL climb to block Smith and Queen at the second level. Without his usual dose of double teams, Michael Pierce was able to dominate when Arizona made the mistake of running the ball in his direction. He’ll have to step up once again – along with Justin Madubuike and Travis Jones – if the Seahawks take a similar approach.

Linemen climbing to the second level can also be a key indicator for Smith and Queen in assessing Seattle’s play action concepts. If they don’t see Seattle’s OL trying to get upfield and block, they’ll know it’s play action and won’t bite too hard on the ball fake.

How often teams run the ball following an incomplete pass on 1st down. Jaguars are the only team who run the ball less than 10% of the time following a 1st and 10 incompletion (have done it once in 20 chances). Nice to see Colts down there despite not having a top tier QB pic.twitter.com/oeBuNbnkVN

— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) November 1, 2023

Seattle also runs the ball on about 50% of their 2nd-and-10 plays following an incompletion, something the Ravens should invite with lighter boxes and Kyle Hamilton lurking to help from the slot. That’s an easy way to get the Seahawks into third-and-long situations where Macdonald’s simulated pressures will be the most effective.

Matchup: Devon Witherspoon vs. Rashod Bateman

Rashod Bateman’s interception-saving catch last week felt like the start of something. He’s been grinding away all season – chipping linemen, lead-blocking on screens – and even Lamar Jackson stated that Bateman needs to get the ball more.

Against a talented Seahawks cornerback corps that runs a lot of man coverage, Bateman finally has the opportunity to show off his route-running in isolated matchups. Opposite him, at least for some of the game, will be Seahawks fifth overall pick Devon Witherspoon, a hard-hitting corner who has allowed a measly 53.2 quarterback rating when targeted this season.

We touched on the impact of Witherspoon for boundary work, but he’s also seen work from the slot, and is an all-around complete CB. It’ll be interesting to see how his encounters fare against Bateman. It’s hard to say exactly when their paths might cross but expect it at certain points in this matchup. One interesting intersection is even in the run game, where Bateman has really asserted himself as a blocker who can spring runs loose on the perimeter. As highlighted above, this is the type of game where another option besides Andrews and Flowers needs to emerge, and Bateman seems to be inching closer to a breakout game. If he continues to play physical, he could be the type of counter-punch the offense needs against this talented corner room.

All advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sumer Sports unless otherwise noted.