The Baltimore Ravens have two divisional foes coming to Baltimore in five days. With that in mind, we’re going to do something a little different for four downs this week. We’re going to break down both battles. Here are the four things you have to think about going into the Ravens biggest test of the season – two 5-3 divisional foes in quick succession. First, let’s get ready for Sunday.
First and Second Down: Browns
First Down: Mirror on the wall, who has the greatest defense of them all?
Technically, the Browns have the number-one defense in the league, allowing just 234.8 yards per game. The Ravens are the number two ranked defense giving up 262.6 yards per contest. This is a battle between the stingiest defensive units, but which defense would you rather have?
The Ravens have the Browns beat in scoring defense. The Browns allow 17.4 points per game while the Ravens’ opponents average 13.8 points per game. For context, the 2000 Ravens defense (you know the greatest of all time) gave up 10.3 points per game. The Browns may have Myles Garrett but the Ravens lead the NFL in sacks. Geno Stone has six interceptions.
The Ravens’ defense has been more consistent this season where it matters. The Browns beat the Indianapolis Colts but they gave up 38 points and 456 total yards in the process. The Ravens haven’t given up more than 24 points this season. Cleveland has an incredible defense. They shut out the Arizona Cardinals. They kept the San Francisco 49ers in check and they held the Bengals to three points in the season opener. That’s impressive. Give the Browns respect, they’re a good team. It’s important though, not to forget what happened the first time these teams played – the Ravens won 28-3 with four touchdown drives. Todd Monken figured out this defense once. He can do it again.
Second Down: Does Watson change anything?
Last time the Ravens played the Browns they faced Dorian Thompson-Robinson. “DTR” wasn’t ready and the Ravens sacked him four times and had three picks. Deshaun Watson got back into the action for the Browns’ battle with the Cardinals. He boasted a 107.5 passer rating on a smooth day back on gridiron. Does Watson change this contest? Is he an X-Factor for the Browns?
The game will likely be more competitive with Watson is under center. The Ravens won’t have the luxury of playing a rookie who couldn’t see the field, because he lacked poise running for his life. The Browns will probably make some plays here or there, and Mike Macdonald has to be more nuanced with his calls. Against Thompson-Robinson, Macdonald could simply send the heat and the reward would outweigh the risk almost every time. Watson can make the Ravens pay for being over-aggressive if he’s at the top of his game.
Baltimore has to respect that Watson is the most formidable quarterback the Browns have. That doesn’t mean Watson is a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback. Watson’s had four games of real work this season and his overall passer rating is 86.7. The Browns have a respected offensive line and he’s been sacked 13 times this season, and they’re very shorthanded up front. Watson does have a good completion percentage but he’s averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt. There are a lot of safe dink and dunk throws built in for him. Watson has something to prove. The Ravens’ defense has slowed down Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Geno Smith. C.J. Stroud is having a phenomenal rookie season, but his opener against the Ravens was ugly. Watson may have once been an elite quarterback in the NFL. Until proven otherwise, he’s behind some of the quarterbacks the Ravens have already humbled.
Third and Fourth Down: Bengals
Third Down: The Bengals woke up – who’s the AFC North’s best team?
If the playoffs began today all four AFC North teams would be included. The Bengals started the season slow but are now looking like the Bengals team that went to the Super Bowl a couple of seasons ago. The Ravens just beat the Seahawks 37-3, after crushing the Lions 38-6. Who’s the biggest power in the AFC North? The football world may find out on Thursday Night Football.
The Bengals just beat the Bills 24-18 on Sunday Night Football. The score makes it seem closer than it was as the Bengals had control the whole way. Before that the Bengals brutalized the 49ers 31-17 and beat the Seahawks 17-13. Burrow is all of a sudden red hot. The Bengals aren’t slowing themselves down and Burrow is getting in rhythm quickly weekly. The Bengals give up just 20.3 points per game and can win a shootout with anybody in the NFL. The Bengals are back and beating them won’t be an easy task for the Ravens.
Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime has offered some clunkers. We just saw the Carolina Panthers and the Chicago Bears on the TNF stage. That’s like a battle between black licorice vs. marshmallow peeps. The TNF game between the Bengals and the Ravens is like surf and turf. The Ravens will find out if Mike Macdonald truly has an answer for the Cincinnati attack, or if Baltimore simply played the Bengals at the right time before the Bengals worked out the kinks. This game could go a long way in deciding the eventual AFC North champion. If the Ravens can sweep the Bengals they will be doing a lot to stay above their most explosive rival.
Fourth Down: How many points does the offense need to put up?
The Ravens have a defense that will keep them in just about any game. The Ravens usually don’t stop Joe Burrow, but they do have a habit of slowing him down. If you take out the 2021 season where Burrow was demoralizing fourth and fifth string defensive backs, the Ravens have been very competitive with Cincinnati. The Ravens beat the Bengals 27-24 earlier this season. The Bengals barely beat a Tyler Huntley-led Ravens team in the playoffs last season. In their last four meetings with Baltimore, the Bengals have scored an average of 23 points per game. If you have any expectations for this game, know that it will be close. The question is, what point value are the two teams racing towards?
The Bengals have only scored over 30 points once this season. While they have gotten out of their funk, they still have issues and they’ll be facing an elite defensive unit. In addition the Ravens will be a lot healthier than the last time these two teams met up. The team that scores 27 points probably wins this game.
The key for the Ravens will be exactly the same as it was in the Week 2 contest. They need to finish drives and put points on the board. The Ravens defense will get enough stops and will likely give the Ravens an extra possession with a turnover. The Ravens need to answer every score of the Bengals with a score of their own. They need to control the football and dictate the game. If the Bengals are going to struggle against this Ravens defense, limiting their chances is key. Lamar Jackson needs to be the difference maker and it has to show on the scoreboard. Race to 27 points. With the Ravens defense it will be enough.
